UFC 321 happens this weekend (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The pay-per-view (PPV) main event is the big one we’ve all been waiting for. We’re due to see UFC’s Heavyweight title actually get defended for the first time since Nov. 2024. Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane is not the fight Aspinall most wanted, but it’s the one he’s got (and he’s probably relieved to just be fighting again).
The co-main event for UFC 321 is Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba for UFC’s vacant women’s Strawweight title. That 115-pound title is vacant because Zhang Weili has headed up to Flyweight for a women’s super fight at the end of the year.
Rounding out UFC 321’s PPV on Saturday is Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida and Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov.
UFC 321’s “Prelims” are headlined by Nasrat Haqparast vs. Quillan Salkilld. The undercard also has Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki, Ikram Aliskerov vs. Jun Yong Park. and Nathaniel Wood vs. Jose Delgado.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC 321 Main Card Money Line Odds
Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane
After a lengthy, boring and ultimately unsatisfying drama involving Jon Jones, UFC’s Heavyweight division has now moved on and feels like it might now be just like all the others; a division where a champion defends the belt.
That champion is Aspinall, who claimed the interim belt with a one minute stoppage over Sergei Pavlovich in Nov. 2023. Rather hilariously, Aspinall then defended the interim title (because Jones didn’t want to fight him) against Curtis Blaydes, whom he also finished in a minute (see it here). Those wins took Aspinall’s career record to 15-3. His only UFC loss was due to him blowing his knee out in the first 15 seconds during his first fight with Blaydes. His two regional scene losses are because of a DQ (for 12-6 elbows) and a heel hook (in his fourth-ever professional fight).
Gane is coming off a “win” against Alexander Volkov. I’ll go into more details on that in the Volkov vs. Almeida section. Long story short, though, that was one of the worst judging decisions we’ve seen in awhile. Before that, Gane had a convincing technical knockout win over Serghei Spivac. That was all the way back in Sept. 2023. Also in 2023, he lost to Jones by first round submission (see it here) for UFC’s vacant Heavyweight title.
With how good Aspinall has been, it’s hard to get a bead on just how good Aspinall is… if that makes sense. All we’ve seen him do is steamroll over opponents, even very good ones, in a couple of minutes. Can he keep doing that, though?
I think he can do that to Gane, if he decides he wants to take him down and submit him. Gane’s Achilles Heel remains his takedown and submission defense. Aspinall has high level grappling, he’s just rarely had to show us that.
If Aspinall makes his mind up that his easiest path to victory is taking Gane down, passing to mount and then pounding or choking him out, then I think this will be done in under two minutes.
If Aspinall wants to box with Gane, then he leaves the door open for trouble.
I think Aspinall is too smart to do that, though. Because of this, I’m looking at bets that are based around a quick win for the champ. Sadly, Vegas agrees with me so there’s not a lot of value to be found there.
Aspinall -13.5 points is a laughable -310. You might as well bet the moneyline for -355. The round total is 1.5, as expected. The over is -135 and the under is +105. I’m very tempted by this under.
Aspinall to win by submission is +350 and to win by KO/TKO/DQ is -150. If you think Aspinall will hear the judges’ scores for the first time in his UFC career you can get that at +1000!
I think Aspinall can submit Gane, easily. However, I also think Aspinall could just as easily use his grappling to get a technical knockout with ground-and-pound. Because of that, I need to stay away from method of victory.
I’m just going to focus on the rounds for this fight. My brave bet is under 1.5 rounds for +105. My wimpy bet is that we won’t see a round three. DraftKings has that at -145.
Yep, I’m a wimp.
Best bet: Fight to Start Round 3 – No (-145)
Mackenzie Dern vs. Virna Jandiroba
After nine years in mixed martial arts (MMA), Dern finally gets a chance to fight for an MMA title. The former super prospect probably came to UFC a little early and has really had to learn on the job against very tough opposition over the years. That has led to her having a less than stellar 10-5 record in UFC and 4-4 record in her last eight. She did look somewhat transformed in her last two fights, though, which she comfortably won over Amanda Ribas and Lupita Godinez. Prior to that, she lost to Amanda Lemos in a fight where she decided to cosplay being a kickboxer.
Jandrioba is a former Invicta FC champion. She’s also held belts on the Brazilian regional scene. She has won her last five fights. Among those is an armbar over Lemos (see it here). In her last fight, she looked great against former title challenger Yan Xiaonan.
These two fought back in 2020 with Dern earning the unanimous decision. In that bout Dern was able to out strike Jandiroba 82-63 on sig. strikes. Jandiroba managed a single takedown, but was able to convert that to over two minutes of control time.
Both women have improved since that fight. Both have also gotten more comfortable striking, so we might see a lot of that on Saturday morning.
On the ground, I think Dern’s size gives her an advantage early on. She’s a little taller than Jandiroba, but she’s got more muscle (something she’s seemed to really focus on lately). That could help her drag Jandiroba down and maybe even buck out of bad positions.
From a technical stand point, I think their submission grappling is pretty even. Jandiroba has just been more dedicated to it during her MMA career and has also had far more success getting takedowns.
I think Dern is currently a better striker than Jandiroba. And I think Jandiroba knows that and will be motivated to test her BJJ. Neither woman has ever lost by submission, so each might be eager to be the other’s first in that respect.
Fight to end by submission is +115, so Vegas thinks there’s a decent chance this is where that’s going. Fight to end by decision is -110.
The round total is 4.5 with the over at -125 and the under at -105.
Jandiroba has never fought five rounds before. She was scheduled for five against Lemos, but got Lemos out of there in round two. Dern has gone five rounds on three occasions. She’s 1-2 in those fights with a win over Angela Hill and losses to Yan Xiaonan and Marina Rodriguez.
Those fights were all over two years ago, though. And they were before she started bulking up. Will she gas out on Saturday?
Jandoriba has never fought for this long, but she has the kind of physique that gives you confidence that she won’t tire out.
If this fight goes long, I think that might favor Jandiroba, especially if there are lots of grueling grappling exchanges. I think there’s a chance this could result in a late finish for Jandiroba or her taking over the championship rounds.
I like the over in this fight and fight ending by decision. I’m going to go with the point spread, though, and not for the only time on this card. Jandiroba +3.5 at -140 looks good to me. I don’t think this is a match-up where either woman is going to blank the other on the scorecards and we might even get a split decision.
Best bet: Virna Jandiroba +3.5 (-140)
Umar Nurmagomedov (-625) vs. Mario Bautista (+455)
Numagomedov comes into UFC 321 on the back of the first loss of his 19-fight professional career. In January he lost a unanimous decision to Merab Dvalishvili in what was Dvalishvili’s first title defense. Many believe this was a closer fight than the scorecards suggest . However, I’m in disagreement. I think Dvalishvili was the comfortable winner in that one against a frustrated Nurmagomedov who ran out of steam down the stretch.
To earn that title fight Nurmagomedov beat Cory Sandhagen and Bekzat Almakhan, both by decision. Given how often Dvalishvili wants to fight (and the recent opportunity given to Petr Yan), it feels like one win is probably enough to line Nurmagomedov up for a second title shot.
Bautista probably goes to the front of the queue if he wins on Saturday, too. He has quietly put together an eight fight winning streak. Last time out he totally ruined the UFC debut of Patchy Mix, by piecing him up on the feet. Prior to that he took a rather dull split decision win over Jose Aldo.
Nurmagomedov is the biggest favorite on this card. I think those odds are being a little disrespectful to Bautista, though.
I think Nurmagomedov has a good chance of winning this, but I don’t think he’s going to ragdoll Bautista around. I think this could be a close and competitive fight. I wouldn’t be shocked if Bautista was able to consistently beat Nurmagomedov to the punch and spend enough time on his feet that he can win some close rounds.
We all know Nurmagomedov is going to take Bautista down a bunch. How this fight goes really depends on how well Bautista is able to defend against that.
The biggest test of Bautista’s takedown defense came from Ricky Simon, last year. He was able to hold Simon to two takedowns (on a massive 13 attempts) on route to securing a unanimous decision (he also out struck Simon 112 to 45).
Obviously, Nurmagomedov is a level beyond Simon when it comes to wrestling. However, Simon averages 5.01 takedowns per 15 minutes. Nurmagomedov averages 3.26.
Bautista holding Simon to three fewer takedowns than he averages per fight is a big achievement and a signal that Bautista’s wrestling defense is very good. If he can hold Nurmagomedov down to just one fewer takedown than his average, then he could have a decent path to victory.
I should also note that Nurmagomedov is not the most accurate takedown artist. His conversion rate is just 39%. At first you might think that is heavily skewed by his 2-15 showing against Dvalishvili. But he also went 5-13 against Cory Sandhagen and 1-5 against Brian Kelleher.
Bautista is getting +5.5 points for -115 and I’ve really talked myself into taking that. To win that bet I just need Bautista to win a round on two different scorecards. Anything else for him would be a bonus.
I think Bautista will at least keep this close and has a real shot at an upset here.
Best bet: Mario Bautista +5.5 (-115)
Alexander Volkov (-110) vs. Jailton Almeida (-225)
Volkov heads into UFC 321 wondering what could have been. In his last fight, in December, he ‘lost’ a split decision to Ciryl Gane. That was perhaps one of the worst judging decisions we’ve seen in a long time. When it comes to MMA media members scoring the fight, 19-1 were in favor of Volkov. After the fight it was hard to tell who was more confused about the outcome, Volkov or Gane. Volkov was justifiable devastated. And, to his credit, Gane made it pretty clear that he didn’t feel like he deserved to have his hand raised.
That “loss” for Volkov came after he took apart Sergei Pavlovich en route to a unanimous decision. Had the scores been correct in the Gane fight, his performances over Pavlovich and Gane would have made him a shoe-in to face Aspinall this night.
Almeida is riding high off two back-to-back finishes. In January, he pounded out Serghei Spivac (see it here) and last year, he submitted Alexandr Romanov. Those wins came after Curtis Blaydes stopped him with hammer fists (see it here) to hand Almeida his first UFC loss (and first pro loss since 2018). Almeida was comfortably winning that fight up until then.
I’m pulling for Volkov in this one, hoping for some divine justice and a big win that gets him his long-awaited title shot.
I think he’s got a decent chance of that, too. His jab has looked amazing over recent fights and that’s a weapon that he could use to bloody Almeida and reduce the potency of the Brazilian’s takedowns. Almeida has below average sig. striking defense at 41 percent, so I could see Volkov doing something similar to what he did to Pavlovich.
If Volkov is not able to hurt Almeida, or keep him on the outside, then he could be in trouble. Almeida is a powerhouse wrestler who averages 6.58 takedowns per 15 minutes. That’s more than Merab Dvalishvili.
Volkov’s takedown defense is good, on paper, at 72 percent. But, confidence in his ability to stuff Almeida ebbs away when you look at how he fared against Heavyweights who are good at wrestling.
Aspinall took him down two times on two attempts. And Blaydes got him down a whopping 14 times back in 2020.
I think he’s probably going to get taken down by Almeida, too.
Almeida is a great finisher on the ground (13 of 22 wins by submission). But, Volkov is very experienced and intelligent. He’s only been submitted three times in his 49-fight career. One of those is the Aspinall straight armbar, but the other two came all the way back in 2009 and 2010.
Volkov has also only lost twice by strikes. One of those was when Derrick Lewis scored a Hail Mary on him in 2018 (see it here). And the other was back when he fought Vitaly Minakov in 2013.
The round total for this one is 1.5 and I think the over is the play. You can get +100 odds on that. I like that. I think Almeida is going to spend a lot of time on top, looking for things, but Volkov will be able to fend him off (at least for 1.5 rounds).
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (+100)
Aleksandar Rakic (-110) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-110)
Rakic has been out for exactly a year. His last fight was a unanimous decision to Magomed Ankalaev. Before that, he was TKO’d by Jiri Prochazka. Rakic will know Khalil Rountree Jr.’s pain in that, in his fight with Prochazka, he was doing really well until the Czech samurai just decided to stop losing and start winning. The Prochazka fight came after Rakic spent two years on the sidelines dealing with the serious knee injury he suffered in a fight with Jan Blachowicz.
Murzakanov is a member of UFC’s shrinking undefeated club. He improved to 15-0 with a technical knockout over the rather hapless Brendson Ribeiro in June (see it here). Prior to that, he TKO’d Alonzo Menifield (see it here) and took a decision over Dustin Jacoby.
The size difference in this fight is pretty astonishing. Rakic stands six inches taller than Murzakanov and he will have a seven-inch reach advantage. When it comes to their fighting stats, they are very similar. The only stats with any real variance are sig. striking accuracy and defense. Rakic has 50 percent and 51 percent. Murzakanov has 57 percent and 61 percent.
Those numbers for Murzakanov have him second in the division for accuracy and fourth for defense. However, the official stats still have Jon Jones in there. So, in reality, Murzakanov is actually third in defense. Murzakanov is also second in the division for knockdown average per 15 minutes at 1.54. He’s just behind Bogdan Guskov (1.58) and far ahead of Michal Oleksiejczuk (1.21), who is third.
Rakic’s lack of presense in these upper rankings might suggest that, though he’s a very active and willing striker, he doesn’t have a lot of power in his shots. That’s backed up by him only having two finishes in the UFC, both against men who have long since moved on (Jimi Manuwa and Devin Clark).
The caveat when looking at these stats is the differing strength of schedules. Rakic has had a lot of tough assignments in his UFC career. Since beating Manuwa he’s only fought title challengers and champions.
Murzakanov has been able to pad his stats against some very hittable opponents. Obviously you can only fight who is in front of you, and you have to give credit for Murzakanov finishing everyone but Jacoby, but still… Rakic is going to give him a stiffer test than Ribeiro and Menifield.
Given all this, it’s very easy to see why this is a pick ‘em.
I’m slightly favoring Rakic here. And it’s the size difference that has convinced me. He’s never fought someone as small as Murzaknov and he’s made his name as a range fighter against guys as long as he is.
I think Murzakanov could struggle with the range here. He’s fought long opponents in the past, but none were the calibre of striker that Rakic is.
This is such a close contest, though. Fortunately, for me, Rakic is getting points in this fight. I’ll take him +3.5 and hope he wins a decision or, at worse, loses 29-28 on all three scorecards.
Best bet: Aleksandar Rakic +3.5 (-155)
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UFC 321 ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Nasrat Haqparast (-115) vs. Quillan Salkilld (-105)
Haqparast has won back-to-back split decisions, both wars, over Esteban Ribovics and Jared Gordon. I didn’t score either fight for Haqparast, but I don’t consider either of those fights robberies — they were just close fights. The wins now have Haqparast on a five-fight win streak.
Salkilld is two fights into his proper UFC career with wins over Anshul Jubli and Yanal Ashmouz. He KO’d Jubli in no time (see it here) and used grappling to earn a decision over Ashmouz.
This is a massive step up for Salkillid. However, as you can see by the odds, Vegas thinks he’s up to the challenge. I can understand that, he’s been able to showcase dangerous striking and smart grappling. He’s also got tremendous size for a Lightweight. He’s a very interesting prospect and he could be a very good fighter.
Despite Vegas’ confidence, I still have a lot of question marks about him. And that’s simply because we’ve only seen Salkilld against guys who would never get booked against a Haqparast (or anyone Haqparast has fought in the last few years).
Haqparast is going to want to brawl with Salkilld. It will be interesting to see how much of that Salkilld is willing to engage in. I think he’s probably going to feel things out on the feet and fall back on that wrestling if he needs to.
It’s really hard to feel confident about that, though, given how little we’ve seen of him.
This is a coin flip for me. Instead of taking a chance on the winner, I’ll look at the round total. I would be quite surprised if Salkilld is able to finish Haqparast. And Haqparast only has two finishes in 14 UFC fights.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-215)
Ikram Aliskerov (-258) vs. Jun Yong Park (+210)
Aliskerov rebounded from his rather embarrassing first round technical knockout loss to Robert Whittaker (see it here) with a first round technical knockout win over Andre Muniz (see that here). The Whittaker loss, in a fight Aliskerov took on very short notice, spoiled his seven-fight win streak. Whittaker is just the second loss of Aliskerov’s career. The first loss was to Khamzat Chimaev back in Brave CF. That guy’s pretty good.
“The Iron Turtle” Park showed his trademark grit and resilience in his last fight, surviving a brutal foul from Ismael Naurdiev and then claiming a unanimous decision. Before that, he took a tough split decision over Brad Tavares. Park is now 9-3 in UFC. The losses are a split decision to Andre Muniz (which many scored for Park), a technical knockout to Gregory Rodrigues and a submission to Anthony Hernandez.
Aliskerov is a very dynamic striker with very fast hands. But he will take one to land one. Park loves fights like that and his durability and heart have seen seem outlast opponents and swing back momentum late in a fight. That could happen here is Aliskerov doesn’t have the firepower to put Park away (like only RoboCop has done, to date).
Aliskerov definitely deserves to be the favorite in this bout. He’s got good size over Park and his activity (7.76 sig strikes per-minute) and accuracy (62 percent) are off the charts. A big question mark is Aliskerov’s takedown defense, though. He has a 100 percent takedown defense on paper, but that’s only because he’s only faced one attempt in his UFC career (a shot from Muniz that he defended before scoring his quick technical knockout).
Park is not a very relentless wrestler, he prefers to stand and bang. But he’s capable of getting takedowns. He landed two on Naurdiev and two on Tavares (who is famed for his takedown defense).
If Park decides to really test Aliskerov’s wrestling, things could get pretty tight in this fight. I’m not bullish enough on Park to go for the upset here, but I’m feeling like Park could force Aliskerov to a decision. Because of that, I’ll take the over.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-120)
Ludovit Klein (-142) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+120)
Klein took a big step up in competition for his last fight earlier in May. It turned out to be a step too far after Mateusz Gamrot dominated him for a unanimous decision. That spoiled Klein’s seven-fight undefeated streak, which included names like Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes.
In his last fight, Rebecki continued to build his reputation as someone who gets into epic brawls. He and Chris Duncan threw down and earned “Fight of the Night” honors. Duncan won the bout, by unanimous decision, with both men getting very bruised and bloody. That was just two months ago. Prior to that Rebecki won a Fight of the Year candidate when he took a split decision over Myktybek Orolbai.
I think this is a very tough fight for Rebecki and I hate that he’s coming in here so soon after a very damaging and depleting fight. Rebecki has shown us that he only has one setting; move forwards. That’s not a good idea against a sniper like Klein, who is very capable of landing powerful shots while moving backwards.
Rebecki’s attempts to hurt Klein will be hindered by Klein’s 52 percent sig. strike defense and Klein’s six-inch reach advantage.
Rebecki is a great takedown artist, too, so he’s probably going to try and chase Klein down and get him to the ground. Klein has very good takedown defense at 76 percent. Gamrot got him down six times, but Gamrot had a big size advantage over him (Rebecki doesn’t).
I’ll be going with Klein on the moneyline here, since I think he should be technical enough to avoid a bloodbath with Rebecki while landing some very nice clean counters. I do like the under, too. Under 2.5 is +110. That’s due to Rebecki’s toughness. However, with how much damage he’s taken in his last three fights … a stone cold knockout loss feels like it could be around the corner.
Best bet: Ludovit Klein moneyline (-142)
Matheus Camilo (-115) vs. Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady (-105)
Camilo is still dining out on beating that guy who asked Dana White for a fight at a Q&A. That earned him a fight against Gabe Green in May, which he lost via submission.
Al-Selwady debuted for UFC in March 2024. That didn’t go well, as he was stopped by Loik Radzhabov in the third round (see that here).
This is not a UFC-level fight.
I really don’t like that all of Al-Selwady four losses have been by (technical) knockout. You rarely see someone make it to the big show who has been stopped by strikes three times already.
All three of Camilo’s losses have been by submission.
At 24, Camilo certainly has more upside than the 30 year-old Al-Selwady. The round total is set at 1.5, for some reason. I don’t know if either man is that much better than the other, so I’m struggling to imagine a quick finish.
I think Camilo probably takes this one, but I’ll go with the over on that very low seeming round total.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-200)
Valter Walker (-360) vs. Louie Sutherland (+285)
Walker and Sutherland were both left fuming after having fights scrapped on weigh-in day last month. Walker lost his fight with Mohammed Usman after what was initially reported as weight-cut issues, but now seems to stem from a drug test failure. Sutherland flew all the way to Australia only for Justin Tafa to fail to make it to the scales (Tafa was then booted from the company).
Putting these two together now makes perfect sense.
For Walker, he has a potential new victim he can use to make history. The Brazilian has won his last three fights by heel hook, beating Kennedy Nzechukwu, Don’Tale Mayes and Junior Tafa. That’s already a record, but a fourth win in a row like that would be truly special.
For Sutherland, he finally gets to make his UFC debut. The Scotsman has reps in PFL and Bellator (going 1-2) and is a former Levels Fight League Heavyweight champion. Levels Fight League is the best of second tier Euro promotions (below Cage Warriors, KSW and OKTAGON).
I’m all in on Walker in this fight. The man is a showman, so I think he’s going to be looking for that heel hook again. And, if he can hit that on three UFC Heavyweights in a row, I think he can hit it on someone who, for now, should be considered a regional MMA Heavyweight.
Sutherland is going to hope he can throw bombs at Walker and prevent himself getting stuck with ‘The Clean Monster’ on his leg. He doesn’t have the measurables to make me concerned enough for Walker, though. He’s going to be three inches shorter than Walker and have a two inch reach disadvantage. Sutherland is going to have to take risks to come in close and if he does that, I can see Walker ducking down and getting whatever takedown he wants on him.
I’ll take the under here, since a dry leg is probably easier to lock up than a sweaty one.
Best bet: Under 1.5 rounds (+114)
Nathaniel Wood (+124) vs. Jose Miguel Delgado (-148)
Delgado looked great in his last fight, taking out the dangerous Hyder Amil with a 26-second technical knockout. Before that, he overwhelmed Connor Matthews for a first round TKO (see it here). He’s 10-1 now, as a pro. His only loss is to Chris Mecate (anyone who watches LFA knows how tough he is).
Wood took a very professional decision over Morgan Charriere in March. He had a similar no nonsense decision win over Daniel Pineda before that.
You have to be impressed with Delgado based on his last two outings. Thus far, in UFC he’s looked incredibly smooth and everything he throws is very clean. His timing and movement has allowed him to pick apart his first few opponents without getting scratched.
He’s landed a massive 7.13 sig. strikes per minute so far through three fights. That’s Max Holloway territory. In addition to that gaudy striking stat he also has 4.53 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 60 percent accuracy clip. If he can maintain those kinds of numbers after five fights he will be very well represented across the UFC’s stat leaderboards and also be one of very few fighters to be in top ten categories in both striking and wrestling.
Wood is a very good well rounded fighter himself. His numbers don’t jump off the page like Delgado’s do. However, he is above average in sig. strikes landed a minute (5.66) and sig. strike defense (56 percent). He’s also got solid takedown accuracy (48 percent) and defense (72 percent). Having those numbers after 12 UFC fights is pretty impressive. If just looking at numbers, Woods stats over time are more impressive than Delgado’s inflated stats after just three fights.
However, the eye test favors Delgado. Wood is very good, but not great. Delgado could be great. Wood fights like he has a very good understanding of what he needs to do to win a fight. Delgado fights with more creativity and more feel, it seems.
I’m really excited for this fight and I want to see whether Delgado’s talent is good enough to get past Wood’s steady-as-she-goes game.
The odds on this one are sensibly very close. I was wondering if Vegas were going to go all in on Delgado and show some disrespect to the veteran Wood. As it is, I’m still picking Delgado, but I think this is going to be a very big test for him. I think we’re going to the scorecards here and that, win or lose, this fight is really going to help Delgado develop as a fighter.
Best bet: Jose Delgado moneyline (-148)
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-425) vs. Chris Barnett (+330)
After serving a two-year suspension for PEDs, Abdelwahab returned to the Octagon this year and he’s gone 1-1. His first fight back was a split decision win over Jamal Pogues, which I scored for Pogues. Last time out, he gassed out and lost a decision Mohammed Usman.
Barnett was put away inside the first round by Kennedy Nzechukwu in his last fight. Ahead of that bout it looked like Barnett injured himself during his pre-fight ritual (though, he claimed that wasn’t the case). That was almost exactly one year ago. His previous fight to that was two years earlier.
I’m really not looking forward to this one. If this were on late at night on the east coast I’d be worried about Abdelwahab lulling me to sleep. Barnett is a fun guy, but much of that fun is happening outside the cage nowadays.
I’m expecting a very low intensity kickboxing fight out of these two, with both man grabbing onto their own shorts halfway through the second round.
My pick is Abdelwahab because I think this goes to a decision. If that happens, you have to expect some friendly score cards (like Abdelwahab got for Pogues).
The round total is 1.5, which is far too generous for two guys who will be winded after walking to the cage.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-175)
Azat Maksum (-375) vs. Mitch Raposo (+295)
Maksum looked great in defeat last time out. He took a unanimous decision loss to Tagir Ulanbekov, but he made Ulanbekov really work for it and showed off fantastic wrestling and grappling in the process. Prior to that, he lost a unanimous decision to Charles Johnson, which earned “Fight of the Night” honors. His lone UFC win is a split decision over Tyson Nam. I think it’s fair to say that Maksum is better than his record suggests, though.
Raposo is winless (0-2) in UFC after two split decisions to tough opponents. His last fight was against the always dangerous Sumudaerji and before that he fought the undefeated Andre Lima (who could be a title challenger if he could stay fit).
Raposo’s gameplan for Sumudearji seemed to be death by 1,000 takedowns. He went 6-19 on takedowns in that bout and sucked up more than four minutes of control time. While doing that, though, he lost the sig. striking battle 9-45.
Maksum is a much better defensive wrestler than Sumudaerji, as we saw in him shutting Ulanbekov out on eight takedown attempts. He also scored three takedowns of his own.
I think Maksum will have the edge with wrestling here and that will lead to him really outpacing Raposo in striking. Maksum lands 3.24 sig. strikes a minute compared to Raposo’s 1.62. He also has a six-inch reach advantage.
Maksum’s 28 percent accuracy on sig. strikes and 5 sig. strikes absorbed a minute is cause for concern. However, against such a limited striker in Raposo, I think this match-up heavily tilts toward the Kazakh.
Best bet: Azat Maksum moneyline (-375)
Jaqueline Amorim (-410) vs. Mizuki Inoue (+320)
After a stumble to start her UFC career, a unanimous decision loss to Sam Hughes, Amorim is on a four-fight winning streak with all finishes. Last time out, she submitted Polyana Viana with a rear naked choke.
Mizuki has been out of action since Sept. 2023. That’s when she took a unanimous decision over Hannah Goldy. Her other UFC bouts are a decision loss to Amanda Lemos and a decision win over Wu Yanan.
In her prime, Mizuki was a great fighter to watch and she’s had some good fights with very tough opponents in the past, outside UFC (Alexa Grasso, Ayaka Hamasaki). Despite being the same age, Amorim — who spent most of her athletic career in Brazilian jiu-jitsu — is coming into her prime as an MMA fighter. I think her grappling is going to be too much for Mizuki to handle, especially after coming off that long lay-off.
The moneyline on Amorim isn’t worth betting on, so I’ll go with the under. Mizuki has never been stopped, but (lately) Amorim has really figured out how to get girls down, put them in terrible positions and then finish them.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-125)
UFC 321 Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action …
Three-Pick Parlay: Aspinall vs. Gane Under 1.5 rounds, Volkov vs. Almeida Over 1.5 rounds, Abdelwahab vs. Barnett Over 1.5 rounds (+469)
I’m looking at the multitude of 1.5-round totals on this card. I think the main event goes under that, with Aspinall continuing to show that his package of elite striking, grappling, size and athleticism is too much for anyone in UFC’s Heavyweight division right now. I’ve got Abdelwahab and Barnett going over. It’s really amazing that they are in the same division as Aspinall. That goes over because both men will fight like they’re waist deep in molasses. And I like Volkov’s chances of avoiding a finish, early, against Almeida.
Virna Jandiroba to win in Round 5 (+2800)
This is me buying into my own theory that Dern might gas out in Abu Dhabi. We’ve got the heat and we’ve got her scheduled for five rounds for the first time since she’s packed on more muscle onto her Strawweight frame. The skinny Jandiroba might not have the same issues in the championship rounds and maybe she pounces on a tired Dern for a late finish.
Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida to end in a draw (+5000)
This fight has some funky energy around it. I feel like we could see something weird. I can see Volkov winning two rounds with his jab, but then giving up a 10-8 round in the third. Or, perhaps we’ll see a point deduction. The height difference in this fight could lead to Volkov’s inside leg kick landing on Almeida’s cup or Almeida kneeing Volkov right below the belt. If Volkov has his back against the wall, he might also get docked a point for grabbing the fence or the glove.
UNDISPUTED HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to pay-per-view (PPV) action on Sat., Oct. 25, 2025, with a blockbuster title fight set to headline UFC 321 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. In UFC 321’s PPV main event, Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, defends his title against top-ranked contender, Ciryl Gane, in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC 321’s PPV co-main event features a women’s Strawweight title showdown between Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern. UFC 321 will also showcase a Bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, a Heavyweight bout pitting Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, a Light Heavyweight matchup featuring Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and much more! UFC 321’s start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 12 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 2 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 321 fight card, starting with the ESPN+/Disney+/FX “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 2 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
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