Texans vs. Seahawks Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player props

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“Seattle’s finest” doesn’t just refer to what’s proudly brewed in the Pacific Northwest — and what those of us in the Eastern time zone will be needing in spades on Tuesday morning given the 10 p.m. start in this one. It could also refer to the Seahawks sitting atop the NFL in many advanced metrics, including FTN’s DVOA rankings.

Seattle got clipped by Baker Mayfield and edged by the 49ers (both at home), so their 4-2 record is keeping them from the top of the standings, but the Seahawks appear to be for real when you look deeper into the numbers.

As for the Texans, they’re following in the footsteps of the Falcons and Bears, who came off extra-long byes last week and won as outright underdogs on MNF. Seattle is supposed to be one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, but it hasn’t been during Mike Macdonald’s regime, as the Seahawks are 4-8 at home during his tenure.

So, will the 12s show up and make an impact off the field?

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 41)

If those at Lumen Field can light up the decibel meter, C.J. Stroud and his alleged protectors on the offensive line are going to have a hard time communicating and getting off the ball. Especially if the Houston offense finds itself in a one-dimensional situation.

The Seahawks’ run defense has not just gone from a liability to adequate in recent seasons, but every time Seattle’s opponents even attempt a run play this season, they lose a quarter of an expected point (-0.24 EPA/play). Meanwhile, the Texans got a big touchdown run from veteran Nick Chubb in their last MNF appearance, but in all 93 other rushing attempts, he and rookie Woody Marks have each averaged exactly 3.8 yards per carry. That would put them at 27th in the NFL, just one spot ahead of the Seahawks’ own running game.

With neither team expected to be able to run the ball with much success, this game should be on the arm of a quarterback who’s got one excellent receiving option and a supporting cast around them. However, the defenses will have something to say about that as well.

The Texans have a reputed secondary with Derek Stingley Jr., Jalen Pitre and Kamari Lassiter. For Seattle, all we hear about are the injury issues to the defensive backfield, but maybe too much has been made of a trio of players who were out last week.

Arguably, Seattle’s best defender, Devon Witherspoon, has played in just two games this season, but he’s expected to return this week, and will see a fair amount of Nico Collins — whose numbers tend to dip on the road. Commonly considered Witherspoon’s running mate, Riq Woolen has spent the season the subject of trade rumors, as his PFF ranking is 103rd among cornerbacks, thanks to a grade of 41 in coverage.

Meanwhile, veteran defensive back Shaquill Griffin has come off the practice squad the last two weeks, while Josh Jobe and Derion Kendrick stepped in well enough to slow down the Jaguars last week. Plus, the Jacksonville game was just the second for highly touted rookie safety Nick Emmanwori, as Macdonald deployed a three-safety alignment, even without Julian Love (questionable for Monday).

Macdonald’s ability to make it work with whomever is available is the key to the Seahawks’ success this week. Stroud hasn’t seen a defense coordinated by Macdonald since book-ending his rookie season by getting shut down by his Ravens’ units in both games. With the “12s” in full throat, and the still-shaky Houston offensive line vulnerable to pressure, expect Seattle to take a lead and hold it in their first prime-time (sorta) game of the season.

Pick: Seahawks -3

Player props

QB Sam Darnold: Over 221.5 passing yards

Had the Seahawks’ defense been able to hold up against Baker Mayfield and Buccaneers a couple weeks ago, it might be Darnold who’s getting the public’s begrudging consideration for early-season MVP. That there’s still skepticism over Darnold’s Seattle success is the only explanation for a line this low, even against the Texans’ vaunted defense.

Only Jordan Love has a better EPA+CPOE composite — a combination metric that measures quarterback’s efficiency, and Darnold’s got the volume as well, going over this total in four of his last five games, with the lone outlier coming against the Saints in a game decided midway through the second quarter when the Seattle offense had barely been on the field. With these numbers, in a closely-lined game, many of the top names at the position would be lined closer to 250 yards.

TE AJ Barner: Over 25.5 receiving yards

While Smith-Njigba is Darnold’s favorite weapon, the second choice might be his burgeoning affection for his primary tight end Barner, who has only allowed two of Darnold’s 19 targets his way fall incomplete. Catching every pass thrown his way since Week 3, Barner has cleared his total in every game other than the blowout of the Saints, like Darnold.

WR Nico Collins: Under 70.5 receiving yards

At 63.3 yards per game for his career, and 83.3 last season, you can see why Collins would be lined this high, but he has one of the biggest home/road split differentials of anyone in the league. Collins averages 72.1 yards per game at home, but just 54.4 on the road. Maybe that has more to do with Stroud, but the production difference is stark.

It doesn’t help Collins’ cause that he’s averaging only 62 yards per game this season, going over this total twice — and just once at home — but it helps ours, in an argument to bet against him.

Anytime touchdown

Woody Marks +260/Dalton Schultz +350

If you’re looking to split your Texans TD budget amongst the receivers outside of Collins, frankly, it’s a mess, with a plethora of options. With only five non-Collins receiving touchdowns, none of them particularly good.

With Christian Kirk ruled out again, Schultz has essentially double the number of targets and receptions of anyone not-named Collins, but the Texans’ tight end hasn’t scored yet this season.

”He’s due” isn’t really a good reason to make a bet, but only five teams have allowed more targets and receptions to opposing tight ends than the Seahawks, so there’s enough of a defensive vulnerability to believe it here.

Meanwhile, Marks has one of the relatively-few receiving touchdowns for the Texans this season, and if Houston plans to evade the strength of Seattle’s defense (versus the run), they may use the speedier rookie running back near the goal line.

AJ Barner +360/Elijah Arroyo +700

Barner’s already got four touchdowns on the season, which seems like an under-the-radar factoid for someone with odds of +360 to score.

The Seahawks’ other tight end Arroyo has had a couple looks in the end zone that have gone awry, but it’s only a matter of time before the big Miami product boxes someone out for a score.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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