Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: Best Week 7 NFL selections

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After a week that brought any Survivor-related nightmares you’ve ever had to life, Week 6 had those still alive yawning through the Packers’ never-really-in-doubt win over the Bengals, the Steelers snooze-fest with the Browns and the Raiders’ surprisingly cozy win over the Titans.

If you got knocked out in Week 6, you probably tried too hard.

Similarly to when “Mikey” sees “Sue” is packing heat in the movie Swingers, despite living in a nice L.A. neighborhood: You don’t need to invite problems in Survivor, like their old New York neighborhood in the ‘90s, “trouble finds you.”

Who remains?

For the first five weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.

Week 5’s carnage simplifies things a little bit going forward, as those who survived likely have done so because they used either the Colts or Lions in Week 5.

Going forward, we’ll put together a plan for both “Colts people” and “Lions people” in an effort to go the distance. While that’s pretty straight forward, it’s difficult to know what teams have been used prior to Week 5, so we’ll provide a trio of options for each path.

Week 7 money lines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).

Money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 7

(Matt Russell)

*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.

Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

Packers: 18.6
Lions: 18.2
Rams: 17.3
Bills: 17.3
Ravens: 17.3
Eagles: 16.5
Colts: 15.9
Broncos: 15.9
Seahawks: 15.7
Commanders: 15.7
Chargers: 15.4
Buccaneers: 15.1
Patriots: 14.6
Jaguars: 14.3
Steelers: 14.3
Texans: 14.0
49ers: 13.5

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 7 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.

Week 7’s top choices

The “Colts people” path

1. Chiefs (84.5%) over Raiders

With a pick’em game against the Chargers, the Colts aren’t an option this week, so there’s nothing lost from having burned them in Week 6 (and if you used them in Week 7, you survived with quite a sweat). Meanwhile, if the strategy for using the Chiefs was to wait for their offense to be at full blast, waiting for Rashee Rice’s Week 7 return was always the idea.

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 16 at Titans (KC -11)
Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5)

Despite their modest 3-3 record, the Chiefs are approaching “fine with using them against anyone” territory, but their schedule does have a series of tricky spots on it with two games against the Broncos, plus the Colts, Texans — and matchups with quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.

2. Patriots (74.9%) over Titans

Spurred on by their first win of the season, the Titans showed up to Las Vegas and mustered all of 225 total yards, losing easily to a Raiders’ offense that put up 226. If you’re worried about the bump a team tends to get in the game after their head coach gets fired, that narrative clashes with Mike Vrabel’s return to Nashville.

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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 8 vs. Browns (NE -7)
Week 11 vs. Jets (NE -9.5)
Week 13 vs. Giants (NE -5)

There are two equal or better options for the Patriots in the coming weeks, with both at home. A third consecutive road game is a tricky scheduling spot for the Pats, so even waiting until they are back home next week is probably a better strategic play.

3. Lions (69.0%) over Buccaneers

If those who survived with the Colts in Week 5 want to join streams with those who’ve used the Lions, the situation of the Lions returning home after a loss at Kansas City is favorable, against the still very banged-up Buccaneers, as they should be locked in to get a win before their bye week. Meanwhile, at 5-1, Tampa can suffer a very excusable loss here and still feel like it’s had a successful start to the season.

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 9 vs. Vikings (DET -6.5)
Week 12 vs. Giants (DET -7.5)

We’ve had Week 12 pegged for the Lions for a while now, despite the Giants’ mini-resurgence with Jaxson Dart. We’ll likely take our chances with Detroit in that one rather than do it here.

“Lions people”

1. Chiefs (84.5%) over Raiders

With Detroit the seventh-most likely team to win this week, those who took the Lions in Week 5 aren’t jealous of those who have them available, since they are going against the MVP of the first third of the season, Baker Mayfield, and they likely feel there’s nothing lost from having burned them already. We’ll see how lucky they feel in Week 12.

According to Circa Sports’ Team Availability Matrix, 94.7% have the Chiefs available to use, so I expect more than half of remaining entrants to use Kansas City (always a lower number than most expect), given they’re 10% more likely to win this week than anyone else.

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 16 at Titans (KC -11)
Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5)

The Chiefs being 3-3 at least suggests that they’ll have to try during the notoriously-sketchy Week 18. However, saving the betting market’s top team all the way to the end is a level of brazenness we can respect, but not advise.

2. Patriots (74.9%) over Titans

With road wins over the Bills and Saints, the Patriots have entered the top-18 — the standard we’re looking for to be able to recommend a team. Of course, the fact it took those two results to confirm they’re even a league-average NFL team, should provide some concern about how solid that status is.

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 8 vs. Browns (NE -7)
Week 11 vs. Jets (NE -9.5)
Week 13 vs. Giants (NE -5)

Thursday night games are notoriously dicey. After all, big underdogs have won on TNF the last two weeks. However, in Week 11, the best options on Sunday are the Steelers over the Bengals and Falcons over Panthers. We’ll see how Joe Flacco does against the Steelers in Cincinnati this week, but Atlanta’s already lost 30-0 to the suddenly 3-3 Panthers.

3. Broncos (75.4%) over Giants

How does anyone still have the Broncos available to them?!? Circa’s availability matrix says 43.6% still do, despite Denver having played the Titans, Burrow-less Bengals, and Jets already this season. The Giants appear to have gotten a boost from rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, but the big factor of concern is the return of star left tackle, Andrew Thomas.

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 10 vs. Raiders (DEN -8)

Though it’s a Thursday night game in Week 10, there’s still one more spot to use the Broncos going forward. Even in victory last week, the Raiders don’t look any good, which makes them that much more of an attractive fade as part of our No. 1 choice this week.

The Bills go to Miami in Week 10, which is the best option of a slate that has the Saints playing the Panthers, and Browns playing the Jets.

If you have saved the Broncos this far, you might as well do so one more time and take the Chiefs, as there’s no need to try to be “the guy in the rated-R movie that we’re not so sure about.” Which is who those trying to think outside the box with the Packers, Steelers, or Bears this week, will be trying to be.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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