Chargers vs. Raiders Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player prop wagers

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For those fans in the eastern time zone, making it to the end of Chargers-Raiders on a Monday night might make us feel like we’ve spent a night IN Las Vegas come Tuesday morning, but staying up late should be rewarded with an exciting game between a pair of 1-0 division rivals who are looking to be the team to challenge the now 0-2 Chiefs in AFC West.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5, 46.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

When most teams travel for an international game, they’re given a subsequent bye week. By playing on Friday of Week 1, the teams headed to Brazil are subject to getting back to normal in time to be ready for Week 2. It helps the Chargers that they’re playing a day later than most, but that didn’t help the Eagles last season, when they caved late in an upset loss to the Falcons on Monday Night Football. Nor did the Chiefs look particularly sharp on Sunday against Philadelphia.

As much as we all make fun of the Chargers’ lack of home-field advantage, a second road game to start the season is a tough ask — especially after the betting market took notice of their win over the Chiefs.

It doesn’t happen often, but whether it’s the high of topping Patrick Mahomes, or the market overrating the team because of it, teams have rarely performed well the following week after beating Kansas City.

Last season, the Bills were the only team to beat Mahomes in the regular season, but Buffalo had a bye week.

Here’s how teams who beat the Chiefs in 2023 did the following week:

Week 2: Lions lost in overtime to the Seahawks

Week 9: Broncos had a bye

Week 12: Eagles won, but didn’t cover in overtime win over the Bills

Week 14: Packers lost to the Giants

Week 15: Bills won and covered against the Cowboys, despite just 94 passing yards from Josh Allen

Week 17: Raiders lost at the Colts

Without going down the list of the same situations from the two previous seasons, almost any team having to play a week after beating the Chiefs has either lost a game it was supposed to win, or it’s been a struggle.

The Chargers were lined at -2.5 as recently as just prior to Week 1, and while the Raiders won as an underdog on the road, a reopened line of -3.5 is giving L.A. a bigger bump up the league-wide betting market power ratings.

The Raiders didn’t have much offense to work with last season, when these teams bookended their schedules. But in Week 1, Patrick Graham’s defense held Justin Herbert to just 144 passing yards. By Week 18, the Raiders had little left to give on either side of the ball, and Allegiant Stadium was largely empty.

Going from road to home in Week 2 is usually a spot where you’ll want to back a team, but throw in the atmosphere in Vegas for the Pete Carroll era starting strong and a capable underdog in the Raiders, and you’ve got the right spot to take the points here.

Pick: Raiders +3.5

Player props

Chargers RB Omarion Hampton: Under 13.5 rushing attempts (-105)

The training camp loss of star left tackle Rashawn Slater didn’t just bring concern over the Chargers’ ability to protect Herbert, but it could also present an issue in the run game as well. L.A. wasn’t able to shake Hampton loose against the Chiefs, when the rookie running back was the lone quality option in the backfield.

Najee Harris was barely cleared to play on Sept. 5, and, as such, was only on the field for 12 snaps. Ten days later, we should expect Harris to get a fairer share of the workload.

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The Chargers led for the entire second half of Week 1, and even then there were only a total of 16 total carries for running backs. Even if L.A. runs it 20 times, we could be looking at a split closer to 12-8 this week.

Raiders QB Geno Smith: Over 244.5 passing yards (-115)

Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball and stop the run, but if the Chargers load up to prevent Ashton Jeanty from beating them, Smith is happy to sling it around Allegiant Stadium.

For as well as the Chargers held up against the Chiefs last week, Mahomes was making the passing game work with players in makeshift roles after losing Xavier Worthy early on, still throwing for over 250 yards.

Smith threw 34 times for 362 yards despite a game-state where the Raiders were winning throughout the second half. Look for Chip Kelly to continue a willingness to stretch the field with Tre Tucker and/or Dont’e Thornton Jr., giving Smith consistent options underneath as well.

Raiders WR Tre Tucker: Over 2.5 receptions (-125)

Early in his career, Tucker’s job was to bolt down the field to take the proverbial top off the defense, but last season, he made it a point to prove that he was more than a designated speed maven.

Starting in Week 3, Tucker was thrown to three or more times in 13 of 15 games. In those 13 games, where he was part of the game plan, Tucker averaged 3.2 catches.

With a new offensive coordinator and head coach, there was no guarantee Tucker would be in favor this season, but playing 90% of the offensive snaps in Week 1 should alleviate those concerns. While Tucker only caught two of three passes thrown his way, being out there that much triggers a mathematical edge for him to haul in three passes against the Chargers.

Anytime touchdowns

Chargers WR Quentin Johnston (+250 or better)

Everyone’s seen, and felt, when Johnston has dropped the ball — something he’s done more than his fair share of in the first two seasons of what was expected to be a promising career as a first-round pick out of TCU.

If it weren’t for an otherwise obvious talent level — or if he played for a more intense fanbase — Johnston might already have been jettisoned from L.A. But if our perception of his ability is that of the player with critical drops early in his career is what’s keeping his touchdown odds this long, we’ll take it.

Not very many high-caliber talents, who turned seven targets into two touchdowns in the first game of the season, would be still lined at +250 to score the next week. Just look at the other Monday-nighter this week, to see the market correct on Emeka Egbuka, sending him from around +250 to only +175 or so.

Whether “Q” scores or not is largely irrelevant. At these odds, as a trusted target for Herbert, it’s a bet that needs to be made.

Raiders TE Michael Mayer (+240 or better)

Speaking of high draft picks in their third year, who haven’t quite clicked in a way most would like — Mayer was supposed to be one of the next big tight ends in the NFL.

Time will tell whether Chip Kelly is the coach to unleash the 6-foot-4, 250-pound Notre Dame product, but catching all four of his targets in New England was a nice start, since he only was thrown to more than four times once all of last season.

Jeanty’s odds-on price are somewhat prohibitive, while Geno Smith’s other top targets of Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers are appropriately lined. Mayers being on the field for 40 snaps in Week 1, in Chip Kelly’s two-tight-end heavy scheme, makes him almost as likely as the others to score — especially, as a big, inviting target in the red zone.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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