Fantasy Football: 6 Week 1 player projections that don't make sense

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-6-week-1-player-projections-that-dont-make-sense-184632305.html

Hello Yahoo! I’m Derek Carty, creator of THE BLITZ projection system, which, if you have Yahoo Fantasy Plus, you’ll notice is now available as an option to help you manage your teams. Every Friday, I’ll be digging into three players projected to play above their usual level, and three players projected to play below their usual level. (I’ll also be doing an AMA in the Yahoo Fantasy Discord every Thursday at 3 p.m. ET, so be sure to stop by, say hi, and get your questions answered.)

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THE BLITZ accounts for a slew of different variables that impact a player’s week-to-week fluctuations in fantasy production, and I’ll be highlighting some of the bigger factors in my write-ups. It won’t take you long to realize that THE BLITZ thinks about things a little differently than you might be used to … and that can give you an edge.

If nothing else, the one piece of information I hope you take away from me is this: Context. Is. Everything.

Daniel Jones, Indianapolis Colts

Jones is risky to roster long-term with the looming threat of getting benched for Anthony Richardson Sr., but on a per-week basis, he projects to have quite a few usable starts until that happens. Now in Indianapolis, he gets a better receiving corps and O-line than he ever had with the Giants, and after adjusting for the atrocious context in New York, THE BLITZ views his talent level as more “average/below-average” than the “terrible” that most assume. With the Colts, he’ll also be getting a home stadium that is indoors and windless to boost his passing efficiency (unless they decide to open the roof this week with moderate temperatures — I’ll be keeping an eye on that.)

While many will turn their nose up at the mere suggestion of rostering Jones, it’s not as if it’s completely off-the-wall. Sportsbooks have Indy tied (with Kansas City!) for the 11th-highest team total of the week. THE BLITZ projects Jones as QB8 this week, and I would be comfortable starting him over plenty of QBs who were drafted ahead of him, such as Baker Mayfield, Brock Purdy, Kyler Murray, Jordan Love and others.

James Conner, Arizona Cardinals

Conner was one of the biggest draft-day RB values, according to THE BLITZ, and he immediately steps into a great matchup in Week 1. Conner is the prototypical “old, boring veteran” who many fantasy players eschew in favor of the shinier new toys.

(Toys are for kids; I like winning.)

It doesn’t help that the fantasy community has wanted Trey Benson to be a thing since the moment he was drafted. But Benson is not a thing. Yes, I’m aware of the quote from Conner himself saying, “We’re both RB1; he’s gonna play a lot this year.” But that’s outweighed by the scores of quotes from the guys who actually make that decision (you know, the coaches) saying that Conner is their workhorse (h/t Coachspeak Index, which I am obsessed with for insight into what coaches are thinking).

They said it last year too, and the message hasn’t changed. Conner would need to get injured or string together several bad performances to lose his grip on this role.

This week, Arizona is nearly a touchdown favorite against the Saints, creating one of the best game scripts Arizona figures to have all year for running the ball. It also has a top-10 implied team total, and THE BLITZ projects Conner as RB9 this week.

Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals

“He’s done a great job edging in there with a ton of great playmakers on offense and making himself a priority, like, we gotta get this guy the ball in as many ways as possible. And you say that with all the other weapons we already have. And so that’s just a credit to him, to find his niche and force us to have to give him the ball as many times as possible.”

That quote comes from Bengals head coach Zac Taylor this summer about Brown (h/t Coachspeak Index). They absolutely love this guy, and he figures to pick up right where he left off towards the end of last season when he was getting 80-90% of the carries. And in Week 1, Cincinnati finds itself in a great spot to give him those carries. While it is the most pass-heavy team in the League in a neutral context, it is a big 5.5-point favorite against Cleveland, a number it only eclipsed five times all of last season. That should mean plenty of late carries for Brown to ice the game.

And with the second-highest team total on the slate, THE BLITZ projects Brown for more TDs (0.93) than any other player. And if that isn’t enough, Cleveland played at the fastest pace in the NFL last season, which should mean additional drives and opportunities for the Bengals.

Jared Goff (and Detroit Lions players in general)

THE BLITZ was low on every Lions skill player relative to ADP this year, and a lot of that is due to context. Not only do they have a big question mark at offensive coordinator with Ben Johnson leaving for Chicago, but perhaps the most important (and yet, somehow, most overlooked by the masses) piece of context weighs against them:

As you’ll quickly learn reading my articles, my studies have shown the dome environment to be a HUGE deal. While I don’t like individual home/road splits (too much room for noise), you can see that Goff’s career numbers bear out what the full math tells us: It’s harder to play outdoors.

Goff Indoors: 21.4 Fantasy Points/G, 68% Completion%, 1.8 TD per game
Goff Outdoors: 19.1 Fantasy Points/G, 63% Completion%, 1.5 TD per game

In Week 1, the Lions play outdoors against a slow-paced Packers offense, projecting for the second-fewest plays run of any game this week. Lower volume + lower efficiency = not great, Bob.

Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders

By my calculations, only two players scored a higher percentage of their fantasy points off touchdowns in 2024 than McLaurin. That may sound cool (yay, touchdowns!), but it’s actually a big red flag. Touchdowns are notoriously noisy and shouldn’t be expected to carry over from one year to the next. With just a 23% target share (elite receivers are closer to 30%), Terry’s volume doesn’t paint as rosy a picture as his overall fantasy points did.

Now we add Deebo Samuel Sr. to the mix, another semi-alpha. My studies show that when a team adds (or loses, but in reverse) a second alpha, the other one tends to see about a 3% decline in target percentage and a small boost in efficiency as defenses have to key in on another big threat. It comes out to a net negative on average.

This week in particular, the Commanders are nearly full-TD favorites against the Giants, with sportsbetting odds implying a 72% chance of winning. THE BLITZ projects it even more aggressively at 78%. Chances are, the Commanders won’t have to pass as much as they will in other weeks. Added to my per-attempt concerns with McLaurin, I’m down on him this week.

Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills

I have some early-season concerns about Shakir, especially after hearing sports medicine analyst Deepak Chona, MD. suggest a “~20% efficiency dip” early in the season due to the high ankle sprain he is returning from. This is on top of additional target competition in the form of Joshua Palmer (who the coaches talked very positively about through camp), an improved Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid, a healthier Curtis Samuel and Elijah Moore.

Shakir should still be the top dog, but this is not the pass-heavy Bills offense of two years ago. They are closer to neutral at this point, and they face a bottom-five Baltimore offense in pace. Running and grinding the clock is their style, which will leave fewer opportunities for Shakir and his teammates to score fantasy points. Put it all together, and I like Shakir more as a stash (or a trade target in a few weeks) than somebody to bank on in Week 1.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-6-week-1-player-projections-that-dont-make-sense-184632305.html