UFC 313 predictions, odds, full card breakdown: Is Magomed Ankalaev Alex Pereira’s biggest light heavyweight threat?

Alex Pereira seeks his fourth title defense in less than one year at UFC 313. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

UFC 313 brings the action back to Las Vegas on Saturday with a long-awaited matchup between the light heavyweight division’s two best fighters. Since joining the UFC in November 2021, Alex Pereira has become one of the most magnetic figures in MMA. His days at middleweight feel like a decade ago, but that’s because of how quickly he captured the title at 205 pounds, then logged three straight title defenses in 2024.

For Pereira to claim a fourth defense in less than one full year, he must overcome arguably his most formidable opponent to date: the near-flawless top contender, Magomed Ankalaev. Had things played out slightly differently three years ago when Ankalaev fought for vacant gold against Jan Blachowicz, he’d be champion and this matchup might have come much sooner. But the well-rounded Dagestani got back to his winning ways after that controversial split draw and now gets his second crack at gold.

In the co-main event, one of the most exciting fighters of all time is back. Justin Gaethje unfortunately lost his initial opponent, Dan Hooker, due to a broken hand, but the always-game Rafael Fiziev was waiting in the wings and stepped into this rematch of a fight he lost narrowly two years ago.

Overall, UFC 313 isn’t a card that will blow your hair back, but it has some fights throughout that are well worth the attention, with high stakes and future implications. The top two, however, are what everyone should be circling. Let’s break it all down.

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Uncrowned's MMA staff makes our UFC 313 predictions. (Design: Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports.) — Uncrowned’s MMA staff makes our UFC 313 predictions. (Design: Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports.)

205 pounds: (C) Alex Pereira (-115) vs. Magomed Ankalaev (-105)

UFC 313’s main event brings a rare “moment of truth” vibe for each combatant.

Immediately upon fully committing to MMA in 2020, Pereira became one of the best strikers in the sport thanks to his status as a former GLORY Kickboxing two-division champion. Pereira’s technique and setups are second to none, accompanied by an impossible left hook. The word “nuclear” doesn’t do Pereira’s power justice. Because of that, his opponents often get hypnotized into becoming primal cavemen. No one — it doesn’t matter how talented they are as a striker — should try to beat Pereira on the feet, yet all of his 205-pound opponents (minus Jan Blachowicz) have attempted it, and all failed.

As much as the ego is a valuable tool in MMA, it can also be your worst enemy, as challengers like Jamahal Hill, Jiri Prochazka (x2) and Khalil Rountree all found out.

But Ankalaev presents an interesting case. He doesn’t lean on his wrestling as frequently or heavily as his fellow Dagestani greats, but he is undoubtedly one of the best light heavyweights in that category. Ankalaev has become an overall well-rounded fighter, leaning only on his best asset as a backup plan. That was on display in his first title opportunity against Blachowicz. After heavy kicks chewed up his legs early, Ankalaev resorted to takedowns to even the score. Ultimately, it led him to a split draw rather than what should have arguably been a win.

The point is, Ankalaev can do it all. Despite that, he continues to tease the possibility that he may hunt for a knockout against Pereira. He’s focused solely on striking in his fights since Blachowicz, which suggests he might be telling the truth. Then again, he was just doing whatever he could to convince the UFC to give him another shot.

This is a desperate time for Ankalaev, who, if he loses, may not get another crack at a championship for years, regardless of how many wins he strings together.

He’s not a brawler. He’ll look to jab his way inside and back up Pereira to avoid those devastating leg kicks. Every strike thrown by the Dagestani will be to set up his wrestling in this one, leading him to a clinical five-round victory. Pereira needs to at least think about being wrestled. Ankalaev will be too smart not to mix it up.

If Ankalaev does ignore attempts to grapple? Well, then Prochazka might have been right to suggest that Pereira is using some type of otherworldly black magic on these guys.

Pick: Ankalaev

155 pounds: Justin Gaethje (+135) vs. Rafael Fiziev (-160)

Where has the faith in Gaethje gone?

The general sentiment right now seems to be that the knockout loss to Max Holloway changed “The Highlight” forever. But a similar notion has been thrown around after practically every war Gaethje has ever been in, which is almost every fight, so I’m not sold on that until I see it.

I’d be more inclined to like Fiziev’s chances if he’d had a full training camp ahead of this fight. He put up a great effort in their first encounter at UFC 286 in 2023, and has admitted to getting caught up in the moment as the fight went on. Fiziev hasn’t fought since the end of that year, and now finds himself in his first fight back on a surgically repaired ACL.

Fiziev’s speed is one of his best attributes and it seems to fluster everyone he faces. Even Gaethje struggled with it before getting Fiziev’s timing down in the first fight. By the car-crash standard of a typical Gaethje fight, that first encounter was very controlled. It takes two to tango, of course, but he’s being unjustifiably overlooked here after Holloway’s perfect night. Even in that fight, Gaethje found his shots, dropping Holloway at one point. The man will catch his opponents, and unless they’re freaks like Holloway, surviving — and winning — is rare.

Ultimately, the circumstances and the short notice are what hurt Fiziev the most in this rematch.

Pick: Gaethje

155 pounds: Jalin Turner (+110) vs. Ignacio Bahomondes (-135)

Jalin Turner lost more than Renato Moicano won in his last time out.

Let’s talk about egos some more. Turner had Moicano dead to rights at UFC 300, scoring a brutal near-knockdown in the first round. Unfortunately, Turner thought he landed the walk-off finish, letting Moicano off the hook. Moicano rallied and finished the “Tarantula” with strikes on the ground in the next round.

It was a wild sight to see Turner pounded out like he was, though it’s something that can probably be attributed more to his letdown end to the previous frame. Turner has historically been unable to take that next leap upward into the land of the lightweight elite, but it hasn’t been without strong efforts, as he lost split decisions against Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot before demolishing King Green in Texas.

Ignacio Bahomondes has shown some serious brilliance with highlight-reel UFC finishes. He’s just yet to do so against similar competition to Turner, who has finished everyone he beats. Turner is as physically imposing as a lightweight could hope to be, and his style should negate the flashiness of Bahomondes, possibly even smothering him if the fight ends up on the mat.

Turner is a step up for Bahomondes. And for now, it will be too big for the 27-year-old prospect.

Pick: Turner

115 pounds: Amanda Lemos (+115) vs. Iasmin Lucindo (-140)

We’ll see Iasmin Lucindo challenging for the strawweight title in the very near future if she can get past Amanda Lemos — maybe even this year.

Still just 23, Lucindo has become a bona fide contender at 115 pounds and has far more experience than she should for her age. The Brazilian’s four-fight winning streak recently extended with her most significant win yet — a split decision nod over perennial contender Marina Rodriguez. That fight was a great litmus test to see exactly where Lucindo is at this early stage. Truthfully, she’s not quite ready — and she lost that fight on my cards.

That’s not to say it wasn’t competitive. Lucindo is a thrilling and speedy striker, and she has talent years beyond her experience. It’s just that Lemos is, by far, the most dangerous foe she’s yet faced in the UFC.

What Lemos lacks in technique, she makes up for with power and finishing ability on the feet. Attack Lemos and she fires back with heavy hook counters to rattle and disrupt. Lucindo is gradually improving her ground game, but ultimately Lemos has only been bested by the division’s strongest grapplers, while still defeating decorated mat-workers like Mackenzie Dern.

Lucindo will be around for years to come as an elite strawweight. It’s fair to call her one of the 15 best in the division right now, but a matchup like Lemos is just too difficult at this juncture.

Pick: Lemos

155 pounds: King Green (+350) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-475)

The Fighting Nerds can’t be stopped. That’s really all that needs to be said.

King Green is a tailor-made matchup to give Mauricio Ruffy the highlight-reel finish we expected him to have against James Llontop in his last appearance at UFC 309. Instead, Llontop stayed more on the reserved side and displayed his durability as Ruffy teed off for 15 minutes.

Green is always down to party and he loves to exchange hands with fellow strong boxers. When power isn’t much of a concern coming back his way, Green can thrive. However, Ruffy delivers damage with various attacks, and some of his spinning assaults just missed in the Llontop bout. Green is a weathered veteran, but this fight is a case of two men going in opposite directions. Ruffy wins without much trouble as long as he doesn’t get caught being sloppy.

Pick: Ruffy

Preliminary notes

Poor Curtis Blaydes and Chris Gutierez go from being Fight Night headliners to lower prelim status after losses. They’ve each had unique paths to where they are now, but deliver more often than not with standout performances, especially in spots like these.

Josh Van vs. Rei Tsuruya is the one fight to watch out of all the prelims. Meanwhile, PFL outcast Carlos Leal earns himself the super-favorite of the card, largely towering over veteran Alex Morono. I’m picking Leal, but those odds are surprising.

UFC 313 has some serviceable appetizers before the main card, but nothing is overly “must-see.”

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