We are at the halfway point of the season and have a real sense of who teams are — the top three contenders seem locked in, but who can challenge them over the second half of the season?
TRUE TITLE CONTENDERS
1. Cleveland Cavaliers (34-5, Last Week No. 2). Remember how much time we — and I am part of that “we” — spent in the past year talking about whether Donovan Mitchell wanted to re-sign with this team? When he did, we asked if that would mean a Darius Garland trade? And wasn’t it time to break up the Evan Mobley/Jarrett Allen frontcourt? Cleveland did none of that. They hired a coach in Kenny Atkinson who unleashed Garland and Mobley, and the whole thing now fits — we saw it all in the win over Oklahoma City. This team is clicking on both ends to the point they can beat the best in the West on a night like that game when Mitchell is off. Mobley’s shot creation and passing — especially big-to-big passing with Allen — has changed everything. There is still a lot to prove — another game against OKC this Thursday, although what we’re really talking about is the playoffs — but the Cavaliers are unquestionably the best team in the NBA right now and a legit title contender.
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (33-6, LW 1). Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the MVP frontrunner (at least in my book) and while he will be important in the Thunder’s rematch with the Cavaliers Thursday — the team that snapped their 15-game winning streak and leapt over them in these rankings — he is not the biggest key. That would be the Thunder defense. Cleveland’s league-best offense scored 129 points (128.2 offensive rating) and dominated the game last week. Back home, can the Thunder’s league-best defense slow the Cavaliers’ ball movement down, get a few turnovers and let their athletes get out in transition? After this game, the schedule softens up for the next couple of weeks.
3. Boston Celtics (28-11, LW 3). Boston is 6-5 in their last 11, and while it’s tempting to write this off as a mid-season malaise of a championship team that can flip the switch, it’s fair to ask if this is something more. Jaylen Brown isn’t worried, via Brian Robb at Mass Live: “Teams have adjusted to how we kind of played early in the season and we’re making adjustments back. We’ve gotta be better at protecting the basket and we gotta figure out how to win games in different ways. I think that we’ve been injured for a good majority part of the year. Now a lot of our guys are all healthy all on the same floor at the same time, so just figuring that rhythm out. So, like I said, I believe in this group. We’re going to figure it out.”
SECOND TIER CONTENDERS
4. Houston Rockets (26-12, LW 5). When Jalen Green is good, he is very good — and of late, he has been very good. In his last five games, Green is averaging 31.6 points a game, shooting 48.1% from 3, and he dropped 42 on the Grizzlies Monday night. Houston beat Memphis twice this week — both in tight, highly entertaining games — to tighten its grip on the No. 2 seed. A playoff matchup between these teams would be can’t miss.
5. Denver Nuggets (24-15, LW 7). Mind-blowing stat of the day: Nikola Jokic leads the NBA in 3-point percentage. The three-time MVP — in serious consideration for a fourth — is shooting 47.1% from beyond the arc on 5.3 attempts a game (impressive that Domantas Sabonis is second, both ahead of Luke Kennard, a name you expect to see atop the list). Unsurprisingly, he would be the tallest player ever to lead the league in 3-point percentage. Aaron Gordon is back after missing time with a calf strain and, while he’s on a minutes limit and coming off the bench right now, he looks sharp in his return. Denver won the one game since his return but were hot before Gordon laced them up again and now has won 7-of-9.
6. New York Knicks (26-15, LW 4). New York has shown moments of promise this season — like when Jalen Brunson returned from a shoulder stinger against the Bucks to play in the fourth quarter and score 44 on the night — but the blowout loss to Oklahoma City over the weekend begs the question: Can this team compete with the very best in the NBA? They are 0-4 against the Celtics, Cavaliers and Thunder. How the Knicks play against good teams matters because they have the toughest remaining schedule in the NBA.
PLAYOFFS OR BUST
7. Memphis Grizzlies (25-15, LW 6). Ja Morant is the headliner, the guy you can’t take your eyes off, the guy who can make big plays when it matters (just ask the Timberwolves). However, I’d argue Jaren Jackson Jr. deserves to be an All-Star as much or more. He’s the glue that makes everything stick in Memphis: 22.8 points and 6.4 rebounds a game, 34.7% from 3, can put the ball on the floor, and is still a high-level defender. Whether JJJ makes the cut in an insanely deep West is another question.
8. Minnesota Timberwolves (21-18, LW 8). In the five games since he moved into the starting lineup for Mike Conley, Donte DiVincenzo has started to find his groove, playing a more aggressive game. He’s averaged 15.3 points a game — including 27 points against the Grizzlies — while shooting 40% of 3. Minnesota has been in the second most ultra-close games in the league (within 3 points in the final three minutes), and they are 10-9 in those games despite a -4.7 net rating. Things have felt better in the clutch in the past week, with the Timberwolves winning two tight games.
9. Milwaukee Bucks (21-17, LW 9). For all the signs of a turnaround in Milwaukee, this team has yet to beat any of the top three teams in the East (it is 0-8 against Cleveland, Boston and New York). Giannis Antetokounmpo put it bluntly: “Yeah, we’re horrible (against those teams),” Antetokounmpo said bluntly on Sunday. “We’ve gotta get our stuff together, simple as that. We did not beat Boston. We did not beat the Cavs. We didn’t beat the Knicks.” The Bucks have not been fully healthy for any of those games, but still it’s concerning for a team with title aspirations.
10. Indiana Pacers (22-19, LW 15). Indiana had won six in a row (and 12-of-15) before Cleveland got its revenge on Tuesday night, but that hot streak still has Indiana in the top six in the East (and avoiding the play-in, for now). What is driving a lot of that is a dominant starting five: Tyrese Halliburton, Bennedict Mathurin, Andrew Nembhard, Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner, who have a +18.1 net rating when on the court together.
11. Sacramento Kings (20-20, LW 19). Milwaukee snapped the Kings’ 7-game winning streak but the good vibes are still flowing in Sacramento – this looks like a playoff team. Interim coach Doug Christie has done that by getting the team’s offense to pick up the tempo and play more freely, and by playing the starters heavier minutes. It’s working, whether it is sustainable remains to be seen. So long as they are lighting the beam, everyone is good in Sacramento.
12. Dallas Mavericks (22-18, LW 10). Kyrie Irving has returned from his back issue (although he is out Wednesday night on a back-to-back) and the team is hoping that will turn around the 2-7 streak the team is on (with Luka Doncic still out). Shout out to Jaden Hardy, who was thrust into a more significant role with the two All-Star guards out and he stepped up averaging more than 15 points a game in a stretch of five games. Get healthy games against New Orleans and Charlotte on the schedule this week (sandwiched around a game against Oklahoma City that is an NBA Cup quarterfinals rematch, if one cares about such things.
13. Miami Heat (20-18, LW 13). Tyler Herro summed up how the players have felt on a 3-2 road trip — without the suspended Jimmy Butler and the distraction he brings: “Just rallying around each other, making it about the guys that are here now, the guys that are in this locker room. “We’ve got enough, and that’s all that matters. This is what we wanted to get back on the road, get away from all the chaos and come out here and compete and get back to who we are and get to our identity.” That is music to Pat Riley’s ears, but it leaves him with a tough choice: Jimmy Butler’s suspension is up on Thursday, he can rejoin the team and play on Friday. Butler’s people say he is ready to play. Will Miami take steps to keep him away longer?
14. Orlando Magic (23-18, LW 14). Paolo Banchero is back and doesn’t look like he missed a beat (except for the minutes restriction), dropping 34 on the Bucks (in a loss) and 20 on what’s left of the 76ers. Maybe the most overlooked name in the Coach of the Year race is Jamahl Mosley, who has his team in the top four in the East despite having as bad of injury luck as any other coach in the league has faced. Mosley has built a defensive, next-man-up culture and deserves his flowers.
15. Los Angeles Clippers (21-17, LW 12). Stats that surprised me: At 21-17, the Clippers are on pace for their 14th consecutive season above .500. That’s an impressive run of being good, and some of that credit needs to go to Tyronn Lue, who should get consideration for Coach of the Year this season. Kawhi Leonard has played in three games so far — less than 21 minutes in all of them — and is still finding his footing in a return from an offseason knee procedure. The Lakers make their first visit to the Intuit Dome this weekend, it will be interesting to see what the crowd mix will be in the Clippers home (back at Crypto.com Arena those Clipper games still felt like Lakers home games).
16. San Antonio Spurs (19-19, LW 18). Wemby was doing Wemby things against the Lakers Monday night, but the real bright spot out of that game for Spurs fans was the play of Stephon Castle, who had one of those “he can be that guy” games with 23 points on 10-of-16 shooting. He may not win Rookie of the Year (although in this wide-open year anything is still possible) but three years from now he will be the best player out of this class.
17. Los Angeles Lakers (20-17, LW 11). It’s been a rough week for the Lakers, with J.J. Redick losing his house and other players being forced to evacuate their homes — all of it far more important than a basketball game. Redick tried to put a bit of a positive spin on the time off, saying the team had three of its best practices since the start of training camp on the off days. Then the Lakers laid an egg against the Spurs. The mental challenges of the previous days certainly weighed on the team, but this is also a roster with flaws and San Antonio reminded everybody of that. One thing that needs to happen soon is that Redick needs to move Dorian Finney-Smith into the starting five, moving out Rui Hachimura or Max Christie (despite how well Christie has played as a starter).
18. Detroit Pistons (21-19, LW 20). Detroit is 7-1 in January and the way they are playing for J.B. Bickerstaff, this ranking is probably too low for them. Detroit’s hot streak has been fueled by clutch wins and improved shooting from 3 — and it’s fair to question if those things will be sustainable — but this is a fun team to watch. And the coaches had better put Cade Cunningham in as an All-Star reserve.
19. Atlanta Hawks (20-19, LW 16). The Hawks have lost 4-of-5 and games (and the one win took a Trae Young buzzer beater from beyond half court to beat tanking Utah), and are 5-of-12. With that, they have slid back to No. 9 in the East. It’s not a coincidence that this rough patch has come with Jalen Johnson out, having missed 5-of-6 (shoulder).) The Atlanta offense has been solid through this stretch, but the team cannot get a stop when it matters – the Hawks have the second-worst defense in the league in January. Challenging games are coming up this week at Boston and New York.
PLAY IN HOPEFULS
20. Phoenix Suns (19-20, LW 22). Moving Bradley Beal to the bench was perceived as a move to get him to become unhappy enough to waive his no-trade clause for a Jimmy Butler deal (Beal is a vet, he’s smarter than that), but it has turned out to be a good basketball move. Phoenix won three in a row with rookie Ryan Dunn starting (before a loss to Atlanta Tuesday) and in those games his scoring has stayed steady at 17.4 points a game (very close to the 17.8 he averaged as a starter), with his true shooting percentage ticking up above the league average. Tough tests of the lineup ahead this week facing Detroit and Cleveland.
21. Golden State Warriors (19-20, LW 17). It stunned many sports fans to hear Stephen Curry (and Draymond Green, and Steve Kerr) come out and say he doesn’t want to see the team make “desperate trades or desperate moves that deplete the future.” It’s not like Curry left his competitive fire in Paris last summer, it’s just that he’s a realist — this team is not one trade away from contending. It may not be one trade away from the No. 7 seed (the team is currently 12th). How I would read these comments is as a message to the front office, and moreso an overeager ownership, not to throw a bunch of solid young players out to bring in Jimmy Butler or Zach LaVine. They don’t change the situation. (If players 30 and under the quality of Antetokounmpo or Doncic were available, players who could guide this franchise in the future, the calculus is different, but nobody like that is available.) The players recognize this team is what it is.
22. Chicago Bulls (18-22, LW 21). Chicago is playing the analytics offensive game this season. The Bulls love their 3-pointers — only the Celtics take a higher percentage of their shots from beyond the arc than Chicago’s 47.3% of its shot attempts. The Bulls also hit 37.8% of those 3-pointers, the third-highest percentage in the league. On top of that, Chicago is fifth in the league in terms of the percentage of their shots at the rim (within 3 feet), 27.5%; however, they make a league-worst 64.5% of those looks. Combine that with a bottom-10 defense, and you end up fighting just to make the play-in.
23. Philadelphia 76ers (15-23, LW 23). Paul George has been the biggest single disappointment in the NBA this season and if the 76ers are going to turn this season around the change has to start with him. Last season, George was a deserving All-Star for the Clippers averaging 22.6 points a game with an impressive 61.3 true shooting percentage. This season — bothered by injuries — that has fallen to 16.5 points per game and a well below league average 52.9 true shooting percentage. He’s still a plus defender, but the Sixers expected and need more from him, especially to help with Joel Embiid, who is inevitably going to miss time. The Sixers have lost three in a row, and with Tuesday’s loss to OKC the schedule is about to get much tougher for a few weeks. This week it’s the Knicks, then on the road at the Pacers, Bucks and Nuggets.
CAPTURE THE (COOPER) FLAGG
24. Utah Jazz (10-28, LW 24). Here’s the silver lining in Utah: Rookie Isaiah Collier scored 23 points, plus had 7 rebounds and 7 assists, and hit the game-winner Sunday against the Nets. Collier was a great roll of the dice by the Jazz at No. 29 in the last draft, a player who was the top high school recruit in his class, has a ton of potential, but fell down the boards after a rough season at USC. Give the man the rock, let him learn on the job and see if this gamble pays off. It did Sunday.
25. New Orleans Pelicans (9-32, LW 27). Don’t look now, but New Orleans has won 4-of-7 (two of those against Washington, but those games still count). Brandon Ingram is reportedly close to a return, when that happens expect him to get showcased as the Pelicans look for a trade for him before the deadline — although, much like Zach LaVine in Chicago, it may be tough to find a trade partner willing to give up anything reasonable to get him.
26. Brooklyn Nets (14-26, LW 26). The Nets are 2-8 in their last 10 after trading away Dennis Schroder and Dorian Finney-Smith but the Nets are not done taking away players coach Jordi Fernandez can trust — there is more interest in Cameron Johnson than anyone Brooklyn has moved so far. With that, the price is higher. Ben Simmons is available in a deal, too, but considering he is making $40 million and hasn’t hit a shot outside the paint this season (seriously, not one), safe bet he stays put at the deadline.
27. Portland Trail Blazers (13-26, LW 25). Jerami Grant has been out the last eight games, moving Deni Avdija into the starting lineup, and he has thrived. In his last 10 games, Avdija has averaged 18.6 points and 8.8 rebounds per game, with 51.6% shooting overall and 36.2% from 3. He’s going to be a good fit with the athletes around him in future years. Also good to see Scoot Henderson find his groove with 39 Tuesday night.
28. Charlotte Hornets (8-28, LW 29). LaMelo Ball nightly checks is conscience at the door and heads to the arena ready to shoot: Ball is averaging a league-high 24.6 shot attempts per game — that’s three more a night than Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic. If you break it down per minute, the only people who have shot more than Ball this season are Wilt Chamberlain (three times), Elgin Baylor and Michael Jordan. The challenge is Ball is not being efficient with those shots and it’s not leading to winning. Ball has a 55.9 true shooting percentage that is a little below the league average. The Hornets have a -3.5 net rating when Ball is on the floor and are 7-18 in games he has played this season (a 23-win pace, although to be fair they are 1-10 without him. The fans want to see him in the All-Star game, we’ll see if the player and media votes keep him out of the starting lineup (and with that, likely off the team all-together).
29. Toronto Raptors (9-31, LW 30). This season has become about understanding what the Raptors have and whether it works. For example, the preferred starting five of Immanuel Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jakob Poeltl have only played four games together (but are 0-4 in those games so… not ideal). The core of whatever will be built in Toronto starts with Barnes and Quickley, they need to develop chemistry.
30. Washington Wizards (6-32, LW 28). There are so many signs of how bad things are in Washington, but the fact this team has 19 games by at least 14 points has to top the list (yes, that leads the league). On the bright side, rookie Alex Sarr is starting to find himself, in his last 15 games he is averaging 13.2 points a game, shooting 42.6% from 3, taking on more of the Wizards’ offense. In a wide-open Rookie of the Year race, he could win it if he keeps playing at this level.
