College Football Playoff Rankings projection: Alabama ahead of Big Ten, SEC unbeatens as initial top 25 looms Our projection of Tuesday’s initial CFP top 25 as we hit the final stretch of the regular season By Brad Crawford Nov 4, 2025 at 7:48 am ET • 8 min read Join the Conversation comments Getty Images The College Football Playoff Selection Committee’s first top 25 rankings of the 2025 season arrive Tuesday night, giving us a glimpse at how this group views the nation’s top teams based on a variety of factors. We’ll also get a detailed explanation of “record strength,” a new metric designed to further credit teams for how they perform against their schedule.
It’s supposed to provide an extra boost for beating quality teams while lessening the penalty for losses against tougher opponents.According to CFP guidelines, the selection committee “ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.”Each of the selection committee’s 13 members creates a list of 30 teams they perceive as the best in college football. Those groups of teams, in no particular order, are further broken down and ranked when three or more members agree on selections.
Tuesday night’s rankings are the first of five reveals leading up to Selection Sunday in December once conference championships are decided across the Power Four and Group of Six ranks. Bowl projections: Texas returns to College Football Playoff contention, Miami’s hopes fading down stretch Brad Crawford 1.
Ohio State (8-0)No team has been more dominant and passed the proverbial eye test like the Buckeyes. Wins over Texas, Washington and Illinois is a nice trifecta through Week 10, and no opponent outside of the Longhorns in the opener has come within two touchdowns of Ohio State throughout the campaign.
This team might be more complete than last season’s squad that won the national championship.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 3 2. Alabama (7-1)The Crimson Tide hold the most ranked wins in college football (4), but we’re not expecting Tennessee to be ranked in Tuesday’s first playoff poll after its home loss to Oklahoma.
Why is Alabama ahead of the SEC’s only remaining unbeaten (Texas A&M) here? We’re guessing the selection committee points to the Crimson Tide’s strength of schedule, which is higher than the Aggies.
Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 3 3. Indiana (9-0)Here’s a team that rarely plays with their food — and the selection committee has to like that.
The Hoosiers’ Big Ten wins at Iowa and that 53-point pasting of Illinois are also notable. Ranked No.
2 in game control, that’s going to linger as a strength the rest of the way since Indiana’s remaining three Big Ten opponents are a combined 0-16 in conference play this season. Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 2 4.
Texas A&M (8-0)Coming from behind to beat Notre Dame on the road along with the recent clobbering of LSU in Death Valley are high marks for the Aggies. We’re not expecting LSU to be ranked in the selection committee’s first poll, but it’ll still count as a quality win away from home.
The most likely SEC Championship Game scenario right now is Texas A&M vs. Alabama with both teams getting first-round byes if they win out in the regular season.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 5.
Georgia (7-1)Unless Tennessee is ranked Tuesday night, Georgia’s lone win over a top-25 team will be Ole Miss. The resume remains impressive since the victory over the Vols came inside Neyland Stadium, there was a road win at Auburn tossed in there and the Bulldogs’ only loss came to one of the SEC’s frontrunners.
Georgia gets a chance to move into the top four if its takes care of business the next four weeks with victories over nationally ranked Texas and Georgia Tech. Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 6.
Ole Miss (8-1)As it stands, the road triumph at Oklahoma last month is the Rebels’ best win, but Ole Miss did take out LSU when the Tigers were unbeaten and ranked No. 4.
With three games left against unranked competition, the best-case scenario is an 11-1 finish and first-round home game. The win over Tulane strengthens the Rebels’ resume if the Green Wave beat Memphis this weekend.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 7.
BYU (8-0)One of only four remaining unbeatens in the Power Four ranks, the Cougars’ most important game in several years takes place Saturday at Texas Tech. That’s a resume-boosting opportunity for both teams and should determine one-half of the entries in the conference title game next month.
BYU’s win over Utah on Oct. 18 is its best up to this point.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 8.
Oregon (7-1)The Ducks have one win this season over a team with a winning record (at Northwestern) thanks to what was expected to be a signature victory at Penn State. For the most part, however, Oregon has squashed every opponent it has faced with the exception of the home loss to Indiana and the double-overtime victory in Happy Valley.
Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 0 9. Texas Tech (8-1)Few teams have beaten Utah on the road during Kyle Whittingham’s tenure, so that victory should impress the selection committee.
Ranked No. 3 in game control this season, the Red Raiders have blistered much of the competition and their loss at Arizona State was impacted by starting quarterback Behren Morton being unavailable.
Strength of schedule metrics won’t help Texas Tech’s case in the long run, but a win over BYU this weekend puts Joey McGuire’s squad back in the Big 12’s poll position.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 10. Texas (7-2)Steve Sarkisian and Arch Manning are getting hot at the right time.
The most important win Texas currently owns is the head-to-head decision over Oklahoma in Red River. Should both of these teams finish with identical records, the committee would have to give the Longhorns the nod given the on-field result.
Opportunities against top-5 Georgia and Texas A&M remain for a squad in great standing.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25:: 2 11. Miami (6-2)The last team in according to this projection if Tuesday night’s rankings mirror our thoughts, Miami is the toughest team to grade in terms of where it will be placed this week.
The Hurricanes are relying on early-season success to stake their claim as a contender considering what’s transpired in recent weeks. Losses to Louisville and SMU should be critically-damaging, but we’ll need to see how the committee views Miami’s recent swoon before determining that.
Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 2 12. Notre Dame (6-2)Notre Dame has three wins over teams with winning records — Boise State, NC State and USC — with more coming down the stretch vs.
Navy and Pitt if all goes well for Marcus Freeman. We think that could be enough to leap a 10-win Miami team a few weeks from now considering that head-to-head loss to the Hurricanes came way back on Aug.
31. For now, though, it’s hard to see the selection committee slotting the Fighting Irish over Miami given that result.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 13.
Oklahoma (7-2)After beating Tennessee for their second win this season over a team we’re projecting to be in the first CFP rankings, the Sooners would virtually guarantee a spot in the bracket by winning out against Alabama, Missouri and LSU.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 2 14. Georgia Tech (8-1)There’s no metric out there that respects the Yellow Jackets following Saturday night’s loss at NC State, their first of the season.
With a strength of record grade at No. 16, Georgia Tech will behind Miami this week.
Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25:: 0 15. Vanderbilt (7-2)How much stock will those deliberating before the reveal put in the Commodores’ then-ranked wins over South Carolina and LSU?
Those two have flatlined.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 16. Virginia (8-1)The Cavaliers have won three overtime games and their only loss — at NC State — did not count as a conference game as they are the only team unbeaten in ACC play.
Tony Elliott’s team controls their own playoff destiny as a potential league champion.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 17. Louisville (7-1)Four points away from being unblemished, there are a few plays the Cardinals would like to have back during that overtime loss to Virginia.
The win at Miami stands as one of the nation’s best. Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 18.
Utah (7-2)The Utes obliterated previously-ranked Arizona State and Cincinnati, so that’s an important note when both losses came to Big 12 frontrunners leaders BYU and Texas Tech.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 0 19. USC (6-2)The selection committee will look at the Trojans’ comeback win at Nebraska favorably since that came against a team with a winning record at full strength on the road.
The head-to-head win over Michigan matters, too.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 20. Michigan (7-2)Winners of three straight since losing at USC, Michigan’s chance to sway voters comes in the finale at Ohio State.
That would be one of two wins over ranked opponents if the Wolverines finish 10-2, as long as Washington keeps it up. Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 21.
Washington (6-2)A golden opportunity awaits the Huskies in the finale against Oregon. Win that one against the Ducks for a 10-2 finish and there’s going to be lots of eyes on that final reveal.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 22.
Memphis (8-1)As wacky as the American’s been this season, the Tigers are the clear frontrunner heading into Friday’s home bout with Tulane. In this spot, they would be the No.
12 seed as the auto-bid from the Group of Six.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 23. Illinois (6-3)Here’s a team we’ll be talking about this week, the only three-loss squad potentially being inside the top 25.
Why? The Fighting Illini’s strength of schedule ranks No.
6 and their setbacks have come against Ohio State, Indiana and Washington. Wins over Duke and USC were impressive.
Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 1 24. Missouri (6-2)The injury to quarterback Beau Pribula is unfortunate for the Tigers after a potential win over nationally-ranked Vanderbilt slipped away last month.
Four more games with SEC competition remain for a team that’s fading.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 0 25. South Florida (6-2)Will the committee include the Bulls to ensure one of Miami’s top wins this season stays put?
Potentially. USF messed up its shot at controlling its own destiny a couple weeks ago at Memphis.
If not USF here, Iowa (6-2) could be the choice.Wins over teams in projected CFP Top 25: 0
Source: CBS Sports
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