Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell meet on the main card of UFC Fight Night 261 at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro. Check out this quick breakdown of the matchup from MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom.
Last event: 3-2UFC main cards, 2025: 94-71-1
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell UFC Rio preview
Almeida, a 34-year-old Brazilian and former Jungle Fight champ in his home country, will be fighting in Brazil for the first time in the UFC. After a bonus-winning TKO in his debut, he’s dropped three of four and missed weight in March for a loss against Danny Silva. Aswell, a 25-year-old Texan, will be looking to bounce back from a decision loss to Bolaji Oki in his short-notice UFC debut in May. He trains with the likes of Daniel Pineda, Joshua Van and Steve Garcia.
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell UFC Rio expert pick, prediction
Kicking off the main card is a featherweight fight between Lucas Almeida and Michael Aswell.
Aswell, who was last seen taking a short-notice opportunity up at lightweight opposite Bolaji Oki, will now be returning to his more natural weight class of 145 pounds. That said, the American will not be fighting a small featherweight in Almeida.
Although Almeida is just as likely to take big shots as he is to give them, the Brazilian banger has proven that he can make his presence count in exchanges if allowed the opportunity.
However, despite initially siding with the Brazilian underdog in a contest that looked competitive on paper, I can’t help but sway toward Aswell after seeing Almeida hit the scales with the broken hand (as fighters and promotions alike seem to have more incentive to keep the show going regardless of any weight misses or potential injuries).
The pick is Aswell by TKO in Round 2.
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell UFC Rio odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the American fighter, listing Aswell -230 and Almeida +190 via FanDuel.
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell UFC Rio start time, how to watch
As the main card opener, Almeida and Aswell are expected to make their walks to the cage at approximately 7:10 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.