10 last-minute fantasy football draft tips, plus takeaways at each position to help you win your league

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/10-last-minute-fantasy-football-draft-tips-plus-takeaways-at-each-position-to-help-you-win-your-league-144259004.html

The following is an excerpt from the latest edition of Yahoo’s fantasy football newsletter, Get to the Points! If you like what you see, you can subscribe for free here.

No big preamble needed today. It’s the biggest fantasy football draft weekend of the year. Let’s get you ready.

10 general draft and management tips

1. Know the rules

The first thing you need to do is thoroughly audit your league settings. I know this isn’t always the most fun thing to do — often the league constitutions are dry and a little arduous to sort through. But you gotta know the rules.

2. Stay organized

Shortly after that, take note of the league calendar and cadences. Take all the free agent deadline settings and put them in your calendar. Everyone has a dynamic and complicated life these days. “Oh, I’ll remember that” is no longer a realistic concept. Routine and organization are always your friend.

3. Be ready to adapt

Make a draft plan, sure, but set it in pencil. You want to be ready to pounce on surprise opportunities at the draft table. I’m always looking to get as much value as I can on that day, with the eye of balancing my roster later.

4. Stay active during your draft

Constantly be filling your queue during the draft process. You should have key players ready to go if needed, and you also want to be covered if you get bumped offline during the draft.

5. Don’t look too far ahead

I like to play fantasy football with a microscope, not a telescope. Let’s focus on what’s in front of us. Let’s try to win the opening month. The NFL is such a snow globe league, I think it’s usually a mistake to look too far ahead.

6. Time of year impacts strategy

I’m not the type to insure my running backs in August, but I’ll likely shift that idea around midseason — when my winning scenarios are more defined and league backup situations are more clear as well. Roster construction takes on a much different shape in the second half of the year.

7. Trade season offers chance to improve

Don’t sweat the bye weeks when they arrive in October. Bye week season is trading season, a good opportunity to self-scout your roster and start making some moves that fit your immediate (or long-term needs). Fantasy trades rarely happen in early September because managers still love their teams. A poker game doesn’t really start until a few players get stuck, and the same idea carries over to fantasy football.

8. Don’t draft into injuries

I know they will find me soon enough. Injury optimism is rarely your friend in fantasy football. A hurt player might need a prove-it week or two before you feel confident starting him. Perhaps they’ll be on a limited snap count when they return. The picture often takes too long to develop. Joe Mixon, he’s not on my board. I can’t draft Chris Godwin. I can’t draft Brandon Aiyuk.

9. Don’t fall in love with your bench

The bottom part of your roster is your churn zone, where you should be regularly considering free-agent moves. It’s usually a mistake to fall in love with the bottom of your bench. Pickup information we gain in the actual season is usually worth more than speculative and theoretical information that we consider all summer. Remember the lesson of the Monty Hall Problem — once more information becomes available to us, it’s usually a good idea to change course, since we’re making an information based on additional knowledge.

10. Don’t overthinking your D/ST

Just play the Week 1 schedule with defenses, then stream.

Scouting report

Of course many of the takes below will be wrong, as is always the case. But you don’t have to be right that often to win in this game. You just have to be a little better than the guy next to you.

It’s your team, gamers. Trust yourself. Listen to everyone you respect, but make your own final decisions. And remember, it’s supposed to be fun. It’s a game about a game.

QB takeaways

Real-life NFL is all about the quarterback, but fantasy football has a different shape. You can do well at any price point. I am not against a vanity QB if the price is right, but I’ll generally shop in a lower tier, trying to find a value player who can significantly out kick his draft-day cost. Dak Prescott is probably my preferred target with this idea, thinking that Dallas has a spotty running game and defense and will likely let Dak cook with his two star receivers. Remember Prescott led the league in completions and touchdown passes just two years ago, and that was the Brian Schottenheimer offense.

Trevor Lawrence has never played like the superstar we were promised, but Urban Meyer and Doug Pederson had a lot to do with that. Now Lawrence gets to scheme with Liam Coen, the man who turned Baker Mayfield into a pinball quarterback last year. Brian Thomas Jr. can’t be covered and Travis Hunter won everything in college. Lawrence is the perfect type of affordable-upside QB to be targeting in the late rounds.
I think Ben Johnson can fix Caleb Williams, but it will take time. The schedule isn’t fun to start — Minnesota (creative and aggressive pass rush) and Detroit (the defense is healthy again). Williams took too many sacks last year and sacks are largely a QB stat. There’s also a cluster of talent at the Chicago skill positions, which makes it tricky to figure who deserves targeting. I’ll give Johnson the benefit of the doubt, but this looks like a slow-developing Polaroid.

Detroit has to face regression after last season’s perfect offense, but the primary targets all make sense at ADP. Jared Goff is a boring target but look at all the talent he’s surrounded by. And when you have a veteran QB, he’s a quasi-OC along with the actual coaches. Get at least one Lion on your roster — and there’s lot to choose from.

RB takeaways

Saquon Barkley was wonderful last year, but I can’t unsee those 482 touches. He didn’t have a single touchdown from the one-yard line — that’s Jalen Hurts territory — and his 29.4-yard average on touchdowns is a screaming outlier. I want to be younger at the running back position, which is why I’d target Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs over Barkley.

Josh Jacobs is also someone I love pointing to in Round 2. After a super RB5 season, I’m honestly not sure why he’s not a first-round pick. He’s tied to a stable offense, good coaching, a winning program. He’s capable as a receiver and a touchdown-gobbler.
TreVeyon Henderson has been too good to be true all summer, but unfortunately the ADP has risen to the sky. I’d like to add a share somewhere but the other managers are throwing their weight around. If the offensive line can deliver, the Patriots can challenge for a playoff spot. Drake Maye held up nicely last year despite mediocre help. Josh McDaniels was an inspired pick as offensive coordinator — you love adding a failed head coach back for his coordinator roots — and you could find sneaky value with late-round picks DeMario Douglas and Hunter Henry.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt was a summer riser, but now he feels like a trap. Sure, he might start on opening day, but Austin Ekeler — who can still play — is the hurry-up and third-down back. Chris Rodriguez Jr. is likely the goal-line back and Jayden Daniels obviously will run a bunch, too. If I have to take a back here, I’ll probably play the value game with Ekeler or Rodriguez.

J.K. Dobbins is the type of player coaches love, a get-what’s-blocked runner and a reliable force in pass protection. RJ Harvey was drafted with high hopes, but it’s going to take time. Dobbins will be an inconvenient truth for many fantasy managers in September and October.
Breece Hall isn’t a bad player, though he’s been through the ringer in the NFL. Now he battles with Braelon Allen, who’s younger and perhaps better. At minimum, Allen has the leg up on the goal-line work. It’s also likely that Justin Fields will run for 1,000 or more yards. Hall is someone I can’t draft right now. I’ve been trying to add Allen shares, though the price keeps rising.
Kaleb Johnson had a poor summer and might even be third string to start the year. I can’t wait around. Jaylen Warren should start, but it’s possible the Steelers will keep a modest cap on his workload.

WR takeaways

Drake London was a target monster and a production overlord during the three Michael Penix Jr. games. I’m still not sure what to really expect from Penix, but he has to be an upgrade over what Kirk Cousins offered last year. I love that London gets 10 targets off the bus every week, and he looks like a perfect Round 2 pick.

Puka Nacua is a dynamic player, but he’s been hurt for much of his college and pro career and the Rams don’t seem to understand how to unlock him at the goal (just three touchdowns last year, and only one catch inside the 10). Now Davante Adams is in town — put on this Earth to score touchdowns — and the Rams also extended Kyren Williams, their auto-punch at the goal line. QB Matthew Stafford is now 37 and has battled a bad back. I haven’t considered Nacua once all summer.
Courtland Sutton gets no respect. He’s scored 18 times in two years and his production jumped in the second half when the Broncos finally took the training wheels off Bo Nix. Sean Payton is a coach who maximizes his primary talent. Sutton is easily gettable as a steal WR3.

I hate soft-fading Garrett Wilson, who is a star, but Fields is limited and his propensity for taking sacks is a problem. They did play two years at OSU together, but the stats weren’t obscene. Fields is still not a bad pick because he runs like mad. He needs to. If you roster him, don’t watch him snap-to-snap, you will pull your hair out.
Michael Pittman Jr. is likely the biggest winner with Daniel Jones getting the Indy QB job, though I am also open to rookie tight end Tyler Warren. Nobody will miss Anthony Richardson Sr.
Ladd McConkey was cooking at a 160-yard pace in the second half, then went 9-197-1 in the playoff loss at Houston. I realize Keenan Allen is back, but McConkey can also win on the outside. I wish McConkey wasn’t dinged up in the summer, but if he sneaks into the third round, it’s a fun pick for me.
DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite boring value guys. Can’t be your WR1 of course but a solid WR2 and a gettable and lovely WR3. The Eagles’ run rate has to come down some after last year’s perfect game-script runout.

Tyreek Hill didn’t have a catch over 30 yards after Week 1 and he gives me a lot of the same vibes Antonio Brown offered late in his career. Miami still has a poor offensive line and Tua Tagovailoa is a limited QB. If I have to roster anyone here, Jaylen Waddle is the guy.
Zay Flowers is a little like Jameson Williams, uncoverable but his own worst enemy sometimes, and battling so many talented teammates. Sometimes you have to trust the talent, though. The TDs haven’t popped yet, but no one would be surprised if and when he gets 7-9 of them. He’s always open.

TE takeaways

Tucker Kraft’s price seems to rise daily but it’s still an intriguing case. The 14.1 YPC pops, and Matt LaFleur loves to use Kraft for both splash plays and touchdown-likely plays in the red area. The Green Bay offense rarely peppers anyone with big targets — no one had 80 or more last year, and no one’s topped 100 targets since Davante Adams left town. But sometimes you have to bet on talent and trust a smart coach will figure things out.

Evan Engram has never been a big touchdown guy, and his YPC has been super-low in recent years. Sean Payton is good, but I’m not expecting a miracle. Kraft and Jake Ferguson are my tight end targets in this pocket.
Travis Kelce probably has a boring 85-840-6 season left in him, but the Kansas City wideout room is hard to decipher. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs don’t win the division.

Team takeaways

Tony Pollard and Calvin Ridley were solid values last year despite a bad Tennessee infrastructure. All we ask is for rookie Cam Ward to keep his head above water and then Pollard and Ridley can be impact players. Count me in. Chig Okonkwo is also an interesting upside tight end.
The Saints could have the worst offense in the league and I’m out on Alvin Kamara (age, no chippy touchdowns) and Chris Olave (love the talent, hate the concussions). But Rashid Shaheed is a good target for your bench, a deep-threat wideout who’s been adding more shorter routes to his game this summer.

Kenneth Walker III has become a polarizing player; a lot of pundits I respect really like him, but I’m not sure he’s really better than Zach Charbonnet. I’m concerned Sam Darnold has pumpkin risk after leaving the womb of QB whisperer Kevin O’Connell, so I’ll sit out JSN this year.
Until Kyler Murray shows the ability to produce in the red area — you wonder if his height keeps him from seeing the field properly — I’ll be reluctant to draft Trey McBride and Marvin Harrison Jr., as talented as they are.
The Bengals should be a carnival again. First team to 35 or 40 points wins. I love Joe Burrow, though his line is bad. Ja’Marr Chase is the legit 1.1 guy. I used to think Tee Higgins was overrated but their tree is so narrow, maybe he’s fine. Chase Brown has only done it once but he played pretty much every damn snap the final three months. They don’t want to repeat that level of work and Samaje Perine is a pass-blocking god, but I am fine with Brown at cost.

If the price on George Kittle is reasonable, I’m not opposed to investing. He never gets an elite target share but can they avoid it now? Ricky Pearsall is also a screaming target if you don’t mind baking in some improvement. I initially thought Brock Purdy was a good target but with Brandon Aiyuk still recovering from last season’s injury and Jauan Jennings in limbo, I backed off that.
Carolina could be sneaky useful. Bryce Young got better, though a lot of it was due to running that might or might not be sustainable. But he’s no longer a joke. Chuba Hubbard is one of my guys. I hate expecting rookie WRs to go off immediately, but they will ask Tetairoa McMillan to be the guy right away. Dave Canales is a good coach.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/10-last-minute-fantasy-football-draft-tips-plus-takeaways-at-each-position-to-help-you-win-your-league-144259004.html