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There is no debate that Statcast has forever changed how we view Major League Baseball. The treasure trove of information provided by Statcast data has given fans and analysts a better understanding of the true skills of each player, and at this point, there is no going back. The Expected Stats portion of Statcast data can be especially useful for fantasy baseball managers.
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To be clear, Expected Stats are not designed to be predictive.
This means that a pitcher who has produced a 3.50 expected ERA is not necessarily predicted to post a 3.50 ERA from this point forward. However, it does mean that in a world with no luck and a completely level playing field, the player would have logged a 3.50 ERA to this point.
Wise fantasy managers can use Expected Stats to assess the players who have been especially lucky or unlucky over a certain time period. And when looking back at data from the previous season, Expected Stats can offer some clues as to which players may have been judged too harshly or favorably by the fantasy community. Here are some Expected Stats from 2024 that are worth knowing before starting your 2025 draft.
Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates (Yahoo ADP: 13.3)
Trying to decide between Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal in the second round of your draft? The Statcast data suggests that Skenes should be your guy. The margins are narrow, but Skenes outperformed Skubal last season in xBA, xSLG, xwOBA and xERA. There are counterarguments for Skubal, especially if one believes that he will throw more innings. But the expected stats say that Yahoo drafters correctly have Skenes ahead of Skubal (ADP 16.0).
Blake Snell, Los Angeles Dodgers (Yahoo ADP: 40.6)
Need another reason to believe in Snell this year? Last season, the left-hander posted the lowest xERA (2.57 ERA) of anyone who faced at least 400 batters not named Paul Skenes. And his .178 xBA was the lowest mark of any starting pitcher. Snell moves from a good situation to a great one, with massive win potential as the rotation anchor on baseball’s best team.
Mason Miller, Athletics (Yahoo ADP: 60.3)
Everyone knows that Miller is good, but his 1.77 xERA was the lowest of any pitcher who faced at least 200 batters. He also produced the lowest xwOBA (.206) and the second-best xBA (.150). Miller is as skilled as any closer in baseball, and he could benefit from the A’s making modest improvements to their roster by adding Luis Severino and Jeffrey Springs in the offseason.
Kyle Finnegan placed third in saves last year on a 71-win Nats team, and Kirby Yates ranked seventh on a 78-win Rangers squad. Miller could be the No. 1 fantasy reliever if the A’s can get him 40 save chances.
Logan Webb, San Francisco Giants (Yahoo ADP: 80.8)
The words “ultra-reliable” are often thrown around regarding Webb, who is known throughout this industry as a low-ceiling, high-floor ace. But we may be too comfortable with this groundball-heavy hurler. Webb’s expected stats took a tumble last year, as his .272 xBA, .412 xSLG and 4.31 xERA were all his worst marks by a notable margin since 2020. The right-hander will once again log plenty of innings, but the effectiveness of those innings is now more uncertain than it used to be.
Reynaldo López, Atlanta Braves (Yahoo ADP: 144.3)
Among pitchers who threw at least 75 innings, no one had a larger negative gap from their ERA to xERA than López. Sure, any sensible manager knows that López isn’t going to come close to repeating his 1.99 ERA, but before they expect a rise of merely one run, they will want to be aware of his 3.94 xERA. López gets plenty of whiffs but has mediocre control skills and allows plenty of hard-hit balls (89.8 mph average exit velocity). His current ADP is about 50 picks too high.
Ronel Blanco, Houston Astros (Yahoo ADP: 213.7)
Blanco has some similarities to López, as someone who came out of nowhere to rank among the ERA leaders. And like López, Blanco massively outperformed his expected stats. The right-hander’s 4.00 xERA shows that he is someone who should round out a fantasy rotation, rather than someone who should be counted on each week. He strikes out plenty of batters (29.0%) but issues too many walks (10.1%). I’m not going anywhere near Blanco at his current ADP.
Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants (Yahoo ADP: 249.2)
Managers shouldn’t dismiss Verlander as washed up at age 42, coming off a season in which he posted a 5.48 ERA. The right-hander had one of the largest gaps between his xERA (3.78) and his actual mark, and his .234 xBA was 40 points lower than the .274 average he allowed. Now a member of a team with an offense-suppressing home park, Verlander could be serviceable for at least one more season.
