https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-fantasy-football-rookie-rb-213827763.html
With the regular season behind us, it’s time to review the 2024 rookie class. I’ve already re-ranked the quarterbacks. Those can be found here. Next up, running backs.
No. 1: Bucky Irving, Bus
Irving is the unanimous RB1 of the class. He finished the year with 1,122 rushing yards and 392 receiving yards, making him PPR’s RB13. Irving could have turned a great rookie season into a record-breaking one with more touches, but the Bucs spent most of their season committed to some form of a backfield by committee. The good news is that when their season was on the line, they made Bucky the man. He out-touched Rachaad White 40-3 in Tampa Bay’s final two games. Irving more than earned the starting gig. He ranked sixth among running backs in rush yards over expected per carry and first in yards after contact per attempt. He wasn’t just the best running back by yards after contact. He was one of the best in recent memory. Only Irving, Derrick Henry, and Nick Chubb have averaged more than four yards after contact on at least 200 carries since 2010. Equally impressive was his two-way usage.
Few rookies have been as successful on the ground and through the air as Irving. Those who have went on to be fantasy stars in most cases
No. 2: Tyrone Tracy, Giants
Again, another clear-cut decision here. Tracy put nearly 500 yards from scrimmage between himself and the next-highest rookie running back. Like Irving, Tracy was effective on the ground and through the air. He went for 839 rushing yards and 284 receiving yards. Tracy also cemented himself as the top dog in his backfield late in the year. Over the final two weeks of the season, Tracy out-carried Devin Singletary 34-12 and out-targeted him 5-2. Unlike Irving, Tracy wasn’t off the charts in the efficiency metrics. He ranked 37th in yards after contact and ended the year with a negative mark in rush yards over expected. Most shocking of all was Tracy–a former wide receiver–averaging fewer than one yard per route run. All of Tracy’s underwhelming marks could be products of a terrible offensive environment. The Giants had no threat of a competent passing game this year and Tracy bested Devin Singletary in most efficiency numbers. Having only played running back for two years, Tracy could take off in 2025 with the combo of more experience and a better situation.
No. 3: Trey Benson, Cardinals
Draft capital is doing a lot of the heavy lifting here as Benson did little as a rookie and doesn’t have a clear path to touches in his sophomore season. He only logged 63 carries, though he did flash when called upon. Benson ranked 22nd in missed tackles forced per carry and 13th in yards after contact per attempt (min. 50 carries). James Conner did, however, match or exceed him in both metrics while running 236 times. Arizona also deployed a third back on passing downs, typically Emari Demercado. Conner was extended during the season, keeping him under contract through 2026. Benson will be a popular ZeroRB pick next year, but he needs a Conner injury to translate that hype into fantasy points.
No. 4: Ray Davis, Bills
Davis is in a similar spot to Benson. He’s a clear backup to a phenomenal starter and the team also uses Ty Johnson on passing downs. The good news is that we saw Davis sans James Cook once this year, giving us a proof of concept on him as a spot-starter. He drew the start in Week 6 and ran 20 times for 97 yards while catching three passes for 55 yards. Davis also saw the bulk of the reps in a meaningless Week 18 game. He added 15 carries for 64 yards plus a short receiving score to his resume. Davis looked like a plus backup and handled plenty of touches when called upon, but Cook also found another gear in 2024, leaving little room for a year-two breakout from Davis.
No. 5: Jaylen Wright, Dolphins
If we’re looking for a player whose value can spike in the offseason, Wright is the guy. Raheem Mostert’s volume and efficiency fell off a cliff in his age-32 season. The team can now save $2.9 million with a $1 million dead cap hit by cutting him. The Dolphins tried a few variations of their backfield before ultimately deciding to just pile as many touches on De’Von Achane’s plate as possible. Wright only hit double-digit touches in a game once. He ran for 86 yards on 15 attempts in Week 5. If the Dolphins cut Mostert and want more of a committee in 2025, Wright could break out in his second season.
No. 6: Isaac Guerendo, 49ers
Guerendo began the offseason on the wrong foot with a calf injury. He didn’t see the field much save for the occasional spot-start or mid-game takeover. Guerendo made two late starts following a calamitous run of injuries to the backfield late in the year. He touched the ball 30 times and totaled 203 yards from scrimmage in those games. Guerendo averaged a solid three yards after contact per attempt and a stellar five yards per carry. He also posted 1.4 yards per route run. Guerendo was an elite athlete coming out of Louisville, posting a 9.89 RAS at the NFL Combine.
It’s no surprise for him to hit big plays at a high clip. The bigger question is if he has what it takes to be the 49ers’ lead back down the road. Guerendo has the makings of a premier backup, but he still has to contend with Jordan Mason for that role.
No. 7: Braelon Allen, Jets
Allen blew by Izzy Abanikanda on the depth chart in the offseason and cemented himself as the backup to Breece Hall by Week 1. The Jets mixed him in early and he topped 40 yards from scrimmage three times in his first four games. Head coach Robert Saleh was then fired and interim head coach Jeff Ulbrich went away from Allen in favor of loading up Hall with touches. Allen topped 40 yards once over his final 13 games and it was in a contest Hall missed. Even when Breece was sidelined, the Jets opted for a committee approach, splitting the backfield evenly between Allen and fellow rookie Isaiah Davis. Allen looks like a two-down backup and nothing more.
No. 8: Jonathon Brooks, Panthers
Like most people, Brooks was my RB1 of the class. I was probably higher on him than most. The 2024 season was needlessly cruel to Brooks, starting with a prolonged recovery from the torn ACL he suffered in college. Brooks said at the NFL Combine that he expected to be cleared from rehab on July 1st. The date came and went and he was far from cleared. Brooks began training camp on the PUP list, stayed there for the start of the season, and was held out longer than almost any other player had been in the past decade for a clean ACL tear. He then re-tore the same ACL after three games and nine carries. Brooks won’t be ready for Week 1 and will likely miss the first month of the season. Given how much time the Panthers gave him to recover the first time around, I would set the line at 6.5 games played in 2025. The list of players who went on to post usable fantasy seasons after running fewer than 50 times in their first two years is shockingly short, especially for Day Two picks. Since 2000, I found only Reuben Droughns to fit the bill. Brooks is a flyer for rebuilding dynasty squads.
No. 9: Blake Corum, Rams
The Rams told us all offseason that they loved Corum because of how similar he was to Kyren Williams. While those types of quotes were interpreted in a variety of ways by fantasy drafters, what Sean McVay meant was that if anything happens to Williams, Corum is the next man up. Williams logged a full 17 games, rendering Corum irrelevant for fantasy purposes. He never surpassed eight carries in a game. When possible, McVay has shown a tendency to rely on one back. He has that guy in Williams and isn’t going away from the approach anytime soon.
No. 10: MarShawn Lloyd, Packers
Lloyd missed time early in the offseason with a hip issue, then suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out of Week 1. A Week 2 ankle issue then landed him on injured reserve. The hamstring issue quietly resurfaced on the injury report as he was ramping up to return. Then, in one final and almost literal gut punch, appendicitis knocked him out for the remainder of the season. Having funcationally red-shirted as a rookie, Lloyd will be battling for No. 2 duties in 2025 and nothing more.
No. 11: Carson Steele, Chiefs
Steele went undrafted and signed in Kansas City as a fullback/halfback tweener. Andy Reid tends to use a fullback and loves to draw up gimmick touchdowns to whoever you didn’t play in fantasy, making Steele the perfect player to crack the 53-man roster. He did so and injuries to players ahead of him on the depth chart earned Steele the start in Week 3. He ran 17 times for 72 yards. Because he failed to score on any of his eight red zone opportunities, two of which were inside the five, Steele finished the week with the second-worst mark in fantasy points versus expectation in the NFL. The Chiefs benched him for Kareem Hunt the next week and never looked back. Steele’s versatility gives him a lot of outs to fantasy relevancy down the road, making him worth holding in most dynasty formats for now.
Audric Estime, Rasheen Ali, and Kimani Vidal were going to be the next players in the ranks. All three were healthy scratched for the playoffs. None of the trio found a stable role in the regular season and all three were deemed unworthy of the game-day roster in the Wild Card Round. I suspect we will be forced to cut them for new Day Three players when rookie drafts roll around.
https://sports.yahoo.com/2024-fantasy-football-rookie-rb-213827763.html