The Lightning Getting A Home Run With Guentzel Was Worth Letting An Icon Walk

Many Tampa Bay Lightning fans were quite upset by the team’s decision to let Steven Stamkos walk, even if it meant bringing in Jake Guentzel.

It was a contentious decision that showed the longtime face of the franchise the door, even though they freed cap space in a separate move to be able to re-sign him. But midway through the season, Lightning GM Julien BriseBois’ strategy is paying off with Guentzel. It’s going so well that the Lightning look like a team no one should want to play in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The NHL’s most effective off-season acquisition last summer was trading for Guentzel’s signing rights from the Carolina Hurricanes and signing him to a seven-year contract worth $9 million annually.

The 30-year-old is enjoying a terrific season, posting 23 goals and 46 points in 43 games to put him on pace for a 43-goal, 86-point year. Those would be career-high numbers – better than the 40 goals and 84 points he got with the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2021-22.

Guentzel’s raise from a $6-million cap hit on his last deal certainly comes with increased expectations. Not only is he meeting the standard with an elite balance of playmaking and goal-scoring, but he leads all 2024 UFAs who changed teams in scoring and points per game. Columbus Blue Jackets center Sean Monahan, who signed a one-year deal, is second, with 41 points in 41 games.

The crazy thing about Guentzel’s current totals on offense? Despite averaging 1.07 points per game, Guentzel is not a top-three point-getter on the Lightning.

Ahead of Guentzel in that department are forwards Brayden Point and Brandon Hagel with 49 points each and superstar Nikita Kucherov at an astonishing 68 points. It’s no wonder that Tampa has the NHL’s top offense in the league this season, averaging 3.66 goals-for per game.

Meanwhile, Stamkos continues to have a decent but not all-star season with the Nashville Predators, generating 16 goals and 30 points in 45 games. No one is suggesting Stamkos can’t still be a solid contributor, but given he’s now 34 years old, you can see why BriseBois made the decisions he made last off-season. And after the Lightning went through a four-game losing streak in late December through early January, Tampa Bay has since gone 5-1-1 to move into third place in the Atlantic Division.

The Lightning will likely be in a dogfight with the defending Cup-champion Florida Panthers the rest of the way. With the Toronto Maple Leafs looking relatively comfortable at the top of the Atlantic, there’s an increasing possibility that Tampa and the Panthers are moving toward a Battle of Florida in the first round of the post-season. Florida may have taken care of the Lightning in last year’s first round, but the Panthers endured the Cup final grind two years in a row, while the Lightning have had multiple early exits after three-straight final appearances. A refreshed Lightning squad also has more goals-for, fewer goals against, a more effective power play and a more successful penalty kill than the Panthers this season.

With Guentzel, Hagel, Point and Kucherov powering their offense, the Bolts aren’t letting their competitive window close without a fight. They look like a notable threat to the Panthers’ chances of going back-to-back, and the Lightning could challenge for their third Cup since 2018-19.

The future is now in Lightning Land, and BriseBois’ investment in Guentzel and the rest of Tampa’s roster is paying off in a major way. Not every move BriseBois has made is paying off this well, but Guentzel clearly was worth the cost and term BriseBois gave to him.

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