MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 249 main event between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas.
Mackenzie Dern UFC Fight Night 249 preview
Staple info:
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Record: 15-5 MMA, 10-5 UFC
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Height: 5’6″ Age: 31 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
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Last fight: Decision win over Luptia Godinez (Aug. 3, 2024)
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Camp: Jaxxson House (California)
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Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
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Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling world championships
^ In and out of the gi
+ 7 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Steadily improved striking
^ Heavy hands and hard leg kicks
+ Favors takedown attempts from the clinch
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+ Active and attacking guard game
^ Superb sweeps and submissions
+/- 5-2 in the UFC Apex
Amanda Ribas UFC Fight Night 249 preview
Staple info:
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12-6 MMA, 7-5 UFC
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Height: 5’4″ Age: 31 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 66″
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Last fight: Decision loss to Rose Namajunas (March 23, 2024)
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Camp: Ribas Family (Brazil)
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Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
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Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ Amateur MMA titles
+ 3 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 4 first-round finishes
+ Steadily improving striking
^ Jabs, kicks, counters
+ Effective inside the clinch
^ Good dirty boxing, trips and tosses
+ Solid wrestling ability
+ Excellent transitional grappler
+/-1-2 in the UFC Apex
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas point of interest: Striking the second time around
Death, taxes and the UFC force-feeding us rematches no one asked for.
But in all seriousness, it’s nice to have the world leader back in action and this rematch between Mackenzie Dern and Amanda Ribas should hold some weight to the rankings in this division.
Their first encounter back in 2019 was a fairly clear victory for Ribas. The fight saw all the key phases, but it was Ribas’ striking speed, output and counters that ultimately won the day.
Despite Ribas coming from a grappling base, she demonstrates a surprising amount of comfort on her feet once she can get going.
Typically fencing in and out of range off prodding jabs, Ribas will look for opportunities to either counter or blitz her opposition in combination. When feeling in stride, the Brazilian fighter is not shy about attaching hard kicks to the end of said combos.
Whether Ribas is looking to land spin kicks to the head or mix things up by going to the body, the 31-year-old has displayed that she has a dynamic kicking repertoire in her back pocket.
Ribas has also shown the ability to fight competently from southpaw in recent fights, but her fast-and-loose guard still leaves a lot to be desired from a defensive standpoint. And considering her current counterpart, Ribas will likely need to be on her best behavior.
Even though Dern made her name in the grappling world, she has shown no fear in taking on the striking challenges that MMA presents.
A naturally heavy-handed fighter, Dern seems to generate decent power in her right hand, visibly stunning opponents whenever she lands clean. And though Dern’s durability and skills as a grappler may have gotten her through portions of her career thus far, she has steadily been sharpening her striking under the care of Jason Parillo.
A striking coach who has helped former champions like B.J. Penn, Michael Bisping, and Cris Cyborg, Parillo appears to be assisting Dern in working out both the rawness and bad habits that exist in her game.
Nevertheless, Dern’s defense still leaves a lot to be desired, as her old habits of ducking her head and lowering her guard reveal themselves when under heavy fire. For that reason, I will be curious to see if Dern can successfully close space more safely and on her own terms.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas breakdown: Potential grappling threats
A place where each fighter seems to find themselves, I suspect that the clinch will be a key junction in this fight.
Although I would personally advise Dern to stick with takedown attempts in open space, she seems to have a propensity to both crash into and attack from the clinch. Whether she’s trying to snatch up a single or hit a good ole head-and-arm throw, Dern is most willing to work whenever she can get her opponent against the fence.
But considering the clinch savvy of Ribas in said space, Dern’s best chances will likely be in the form of reactive shots at the legs (as opposed to the more upper-body clinch entries that got her in trouble the last time they fought).
An accoladed judoka, Ribas has a knack for parlaying opponents’ offensive wrestling pressure into hip tosses that allow her to get topside.
Ribas also is capable of hitting more wrestling-style takedowns like reactive level changes or more traditional double legs, but typically attempts those when her opponent has their back to the fence.
Once Ribas can get things to the ground, she becomes even more comfortable behind the proverbial steering wheel. From positional ground striking to transitional submission threats, Ribas appears to be the complete package from a grappling perspective.
Nevertheless, Ribas will still need to be on her best behavior given that Dern is still an excellent grappler in transition that is seemingly one mistake away from being able to close the show in MMA.
Whether she is playing in or out of the gi, Dern has never been afraid to give a little in order to gain a lot. That said, Dern will need to show an ability to both secure and close from dominant positions if she means to keep her reputation in this division.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas odds
The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the winner of the first fight, listing Ribas -215 and Dern +164 via FanDuel.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas prediction
Even though rematches seldom go the same way in MMA, this matchup, sadly, leaves little to the imagination.
Both women, to differing degrees, have steadily improved parts of their games, but the stylistic dynamic between the two largely remains the same.
Unless Dern can sway the judges her way with some big moments (a la her controversial decision win over Tecia Pennington), then Ribas’ speed, output and counters will likely widen the gap on the scoreboard.
Finishes on the feet are quietly on the table for both fighters, but I suspect these ladies go all five frames.
The pick is Ribas by unanimous decision.
Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas state time, where to watch
As the main event, Dern and Ribas are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 9:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams live on ESPN+.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC Fight Night 249.
This article originally appeared on MMA Junkie: Mackenzie Dern vs. Amanda Ribas prediction, pick: Intriguing rematch at UFC Fight Night 249
