Most common players on eliminated teams from Week 9 in Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues — plus FAB waiver wire advice

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/most-common-players-on-eliminated-teams-from-week-9-in-yahoo-fantasy-guillotine-leagues--plus-fab-waiver-wire-advice-191545989.html

Nine weeks are in the books, which means nine managers in your Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine Leagues presented by Liquid Death are no longer around. It’s a wicked game, isn’t it? Of course, it’s wickedly fun when you’re on the good side of things.

If you’re still reading our weekly Guillotine League missive, congratulations. You’re still alive. You made it to November.

Now is when the game gets really interesting.

I’ll run through the most commonly-cut players and some FAB advice, as usual, but the strategy becomes more and more context-dependent as we meander through the late stages of the season. And it’s critical that you audit the FAB budgets remaining for your competitors. It’s not unlike poker, where a good player is constantly reevaluating the chip dynamics of the table, who’s deep and who’s thin. Leverage is everything.

[Eliminated or looking for more fun? There’s still time to join or create another Yahoo Fantasy Guillotine League]

In most leagues the waiver wire will be especially rich every week onward, as the cut teams become stronger and stronger. It’s also more plausible to find useful players on the wire for nothing, players who would never be free agents in a casual league. Remember, your manager pool keeps shrinking in size.

You always audit every injury closely, but also pay keen attention to bye weeks. There are still 14 NFL teams who have not hit their holiday yet, almost half of the league. This has to be factored into your strategy.

Understanding FAB recommendations

Proactive: This means you highly covet this player, perhaps might even need this player. I realize these offers might not win if someone in your league is going all in, but as described above, that can be short-sighted in this format with how much talent is available each week.

Reactive: This means you desire the player but the cost has to make sense for your short- or long-term strategy.

Keep Them Honest: This is an offer that is not designed to win, but might surprisingly land a player if your opponents are distracted by other talent available or unexpectedly passive that week. I often compare notes with other experienced Guillotine League players and we’re surprised at how often the “Keep Them Honest” bids actually win (this is also a portable strategy for regular season-long leagues; you never know when strange market behavior will come about).

Finally, understand that the FAB recommendations are with the assumption that you won’t be making offers for every available player.

Week 9’s top-10 players on eliminated teams

Again, the FAB buckets are an extremely loose guide. Play the hand you’re dealt, and consider what’s around you. You know your league dynamics better than an outsider ever could.

1. RB Jonathan Taylor, Colts (23% of eliminated teams)

It was Taylor’s worst game of the year, nothing even close. The Pittsburgh defense showed up for the first time in weeks, and Taylor didn’t score a touchdown for just the third time all year. Taylor should get his groove back against Atlanta, but then it’s a bye week. And the Indianapolis schedule is nasty after that bye (Chiefs, Texans, Jaguars, Seahawks). Nonetheless, Taylor is a three-down back and has a ton of goal-line equity; you need to compete for this one. Taylor might be a better player than Jahmyr Gibbs in a vacuum (it’s awfully close), but Gibbs (discussed below) has the better fantasy setup for this format.

FAB Recommendation:

$220 proactive
$185 reactive
$100 keep them honest

2. QB Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs (23%)

For the first time all year Mahomes was kept out of the end zone (other than a two-point conversion), and for the first time in five weeks he did nothing as a runner. For some reason the Bills always beat the Chiefs in the regular season, then watch things flip in the playoffs. Mahomes can’t help you in Week 10 (bye week), and Denver waits for Week 11. It’s not an easy call.

FAB Recommendation:

$80 proactive
$35 reactive
$12-15 keep them honest

3. RB Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions (22%)

The Vikings had an excellent game plan for Gibbs and held him to a shocking four-point game. Gibbs can make it up to you with the upcoming schedule, ready to attack the Commanders, Eagles and Giants, all favorable draws. There’s also a Dallas game in Week 14. Pay up.

FAB Recommendation:

$230 proactive
$195 reactive
$100 keep them honest

4. TE Tucker Kraft, Packers (20%)

This one hurts, as Kraft was probably the most-promoted fantasy pick of the Yahoo staff this summer and he stood as the TE1 going into Week 9. Now he’s out for the year, leaving fantasy managers scrambling for help at the tight end spot. Replacement Luke Musgrave might be worth a low, speculative bid in traditional season-long formats, but you need to do better in Guillotine Leagues.

5. WR DK Metcalf, Steelers (19%)

Touchdown equity and the occasional big play were keeping Metcalf afloat for the first six games, but he was mostly unneeded in the upset of the Colts. He remains more of a boom/bust WR2 than a true star; he’s not an automatic starter as we hit November in this format.

FAB Recommendation:

$55 proactive
$30 reactive
$6-12 keep them honest

6. WR Rome Odunze, Bears (19%)

Odunze was cooking before Chicago’s Week 5 bye, but he’s had three washout games since, including a bagel at Cincinnati, of all places. The Giants are a good draw this week, but Chicago’s weekly distribution has been difficult to project.

FAB Recommendation:

$50 proactive
$25 reactive
$5-10 keep them honest

7. WR Ladd McConkey (17%) and 8. RB Kimani Vidal (17%)

We’ll link these two teammates together. Vidal was outplayed by teammate Jaret Patterson, while McConkey has to share with three other talented teammates in the passing game. The injury to star OT Joe Alt might force the Chargers to rely more on the passing game; it’s generally easier to mask offensive-line problems through creative passing. The Chargers will also get Omarion Hampton back at some point (though it’s not imminent), so Vidal’s value in this format is close to zero now.

FAB for McConkey:

$35 proactive
$15-20 reactive
$3-5 keep them honest

FAB for Vidal:

$5 proactive
$3 reactive
$1 keep them honest (and I’m fine not bidding on him at all)

9. QB Jalen Hurts, Eagles (16%)

Hurts has been pretty good this year, with five QB8 or higher finishes, but his Week 9 bye was a cruel fact for some managers. The Packers and Lions will challenge Philly the next two weeks, but the Cowboys are a daisy in Week 12.

FAB Recommendation:

$120 proactive
$70 reactive
$30-40 keep them honest

10. TE Tyler Warren, Colts (16%)

Warren had his worst game of the year in Week 9 (5-26-0), though he still drew seven targets. He faces Atlanta this Sunday (in Germany), a team that’s been good in seam coverage, and then there’s a pesky Week 11 bye.

FAB Recommendation:

$60 proactive
$30 reactive
$5-10 keep them honest

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/most-common-players-on-eliminated-teams-from-week-9-in-yahoo-fantasy-guillotine-leagues--plus-fab-waiver-wire-advice-191545989.html