https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-defense-dst-week-10-rankings-and-streamers
We’re now nine weeks into the NFL season, and it continues to be a tough year for streaming defenses. Frankly, we’re getting to the point where we may just want to settle on a strong DST and hold. Of the top 10 fantasy defenses on the season, perhaps the only one that wasn’t drafted regularly was the Patriots or the Seahawks; however, both were scooped up early on waivers and have a past history of success.
This past week, we landed four of the top ten defenses with the Rams, Seahawks, Texans, and Lions. The Rams and Lions were in truly good matchups, but the other two picks were simply betting on the talent of the defense. We also did that with the Broncos, who finished just outside the top 10, so we’re starting to see the value in the safety these strong defenses provide.
Yes, they weren’t the highest scoring defenses on the week, but I’ve yet to find anybody who, before the week started, was pushing for you to play the Titans against the Chargers, Steelers against the Colts, or Cardinals against the Cowboys. None of those defenses were playing particularly well or were in good matchups, so the randomness meter continues to be turned up pretty high this week. Maybe, just like chasing saves on the waiver wire in fantasy baseball, it’s better to just avoid it all altogether.
As a final reminder, what you’ll get below, and every week, is not just my rankings but also my thoughts on why teams are ranked how they are. Tier One will be my “elite” plays of the week. Tier Two will be plays that I consider strong, while Tier Three will almost always be borderline top-10 plays. Those are either good defenses in bad matchups or mediocre defenses in good matchups. Tier Four will be deep-league targets, and Tier Five will be defenses that nobody should be playing that particular week.
Each week, I’ll keep track of how many Top-10 defenses I correctly called, so we can all see how accurate the BOD (Best Overall Defense) rankings are
2025 SEASON SUCCESS RATE (Percentage of top 10 defenses correctly predicted)
WEEK 9: 4-6
SEASON-LONG: 45-45
BOD Formula and Philosophy
If you’ve read my earlier articles, then you know that I value defenses that get pressure on the quarterback and create turnover opportunities, which is likely what most people value. However, that means I look at underlying metrics and try to value the quality of the defense over simply saying, “Who is playing a bad offense?” While opponents factor into my rankings, I don’t want to elevate a bad or mediocre defense simply because of a matchup, as bad defenses are also bad for a reason.
To find the best plays every week, I utilize the following formula (EPA allowed is in a small decimal point, hence the heavy multiplication):
((PRESSURE RATE x 1.5) + TACKLE FOR A LOSS RATE+ (TURNOVER RATE x 2))
MINUS
(EXPECTED POINTS PER PLAY ALLOWED x 100) + (CONVERSION RATE ALLOWED X 0.75) + (OPPONENT SCORING RATE))
I then add that total to the team’s fantasy points scored per game over the last six weeks because fantasy points are the strongest predictor of fantasy points. I will obviously have to make manual adjustments each week to factor in things like injuries or weather issues, but I try not to rank too much based on “gut feel” or concerns about wind, etc.
With that out of the way, onto the rankings.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
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DST WEEK 10 RANKINGS |
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| Rank | Tier One DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 1 | Houston Texans | vs JAX | 1 |
| 2 | Detroit Lions | at WAS | 2 |
The Texans are far and away the top DST in my BOD model, and it’s easy to see why. Over the last six weeks, they’ve averaged 11.2 fantasy points per game and rank 1st in opponents’ scoring rate, 1st in EPA per play allowed, 2nd in conversion rate allowed, 3rd in turnover rate, 4th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, and 9th in the NFL in pressure rate. They are one of the toughest teams in the league to pass against, and now they’ll face a Jaguars offense that will definitely be without Travis Hunter and could also be without Brian Thomas Jr. (ankle) and Dynami Brown (concussion). I feel pretty good about this spot, even if Davis Mills is starting for Houston and putting their defense in some bad spots.
Despite battling injuries on the defensive side of the ball again, the Lions are 3rd in EPA per play allowed, 4th in the NFL in pressure rate, 4th in opponents’ scoring rate, 4th in conversion rate allowed, and 5th in turnover rate over the last six weeks. That has led to them averaging 10 fantasy points per game, and now they’re also getting healthier. Penei Sewell seems to have avoided a major shoulder injury, and the team could get Kerby Joseph and/or Malcolm Rodriguez back this week as well. Meanwhile, the Commanders will be without Jayden Daniels and could be without Terry McLaurin yet again, so that makes this a more enticing spot for the Lions.
| Rank | Tier Two DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 3 | Buffalo Bills | at MIA | 8 |
| 4 | Los Angeles Rams | at SF | 3 |
| 5 | Denver Broncos | vs LV | 6 |
| 6 | Cleveland Browns | at NYJ | 10 |
| 7 | Seattle Seahawks | vs ARI | 11 |
Since the second half of the Falcons game, the Bills have allowed just 132 yards per half, and they just held Patrick Mahomes to his worst completion percentage game of his career. So what changed during that Falcons’ game? Sean McDermott took over playcalling, even though he claims he’s working “alongside” Bobby Babich. The change has been a massive difference-maker for the defense, and the Bills are 2nd in the NFL in pressure rate, 7th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 9th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 9th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks. Yes, they’ve averaged just 7.6 fantasy points per game and just lost both Ed Oliver and Michael Hoecht for the season, which really hurts the interior of their defensive line, but young players like Cole Bishop, Maxwell Hairston and Deone Walker are emerging, and I think they should still be in for a solid performance against a Dolphins team that has seemed to turn the page on this season.
The Rams have been one of the best defenses in football this year, ranking 2nd in opponents’ scoring rate, 3rd in conversion rate allowed, 4th in turnover rate, 4th in EPA per play allowed, and 6th in the NFL in pressure rate over the last six weeks. They’ve averaged 9 fantasy points per game over that span, and get a solid matchup against a beaten-down 49ers team. The 49ers have given up six fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and if you factor in how good the Rams are, this could be an 8-10 point week for Los Angeles.
Man, I hate Thursday night games and would prefer to never have to play a defense in those weird contests. Still, it’s hard to avoid the Broncos this week. Over the last six weeks, they are 1st in conversion rate allowed, 2nd in EPA per play allowed, 5th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 10th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, while scoring 7.7 fantasy points per game. The high-ceiling performances haven’t been there for a while, but this Raiders team is bottom third in the league in sack rate and turnover rate. They do have Brock Bowers back, and he drastically changes the complexion of their offense, but I still think the Broncos can capitalize on the match-up here.
The Browns are coming off a bye in a sweet spot against a Jets team that has allowed 8.7 fantasy points per game to opposing defenses over the last month. I do expect Garrett Wilson to be back for this one, which makes the Jets a bit of a tougher matchup, but still a good one. Meanwhile, over the last six weeks, the Browns are 1st in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 6th in turnover rate, 6th in EPA per play allowed, 6th in conversion rate allowed, and 11th in opponents’ scoring rate. That has led to them averaging a solid 8.4 fantasy points per game, so this feels like a good spot for 8+ fantasy points from the Browns defense.
A lot of people have the Seahawks higher this week, but I just can’t get there. Don’t get me wrong, they are a solid defense. Over the last six weeks, they rank 5th in conversion rate allowed, 6th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in the NFL in pressure rate, and 10th in EPA per play allowed over the last six weeks, which has led to them averaging 7.4 fantasy points per game. However, they just lost Ernest Jones to injury, and this Cardinals offense is a different animal with Jacoby Brissett under center. I think they’re more efficient, and they get the ball into the hands of their playmakers more often. I still like the Seahawks’ defense this week, but I don’t see a huge ceiling game.
FOR A MORE DETAILED DISCUSSION OF DST PLAYS FOR THIS WEEK, CHECK OUT ERIC’S PICK 3(DST) VIDEO OVER ON THE NFL ON NBC YOUTUBE PAGE.
| Rank | Tier Three DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 8 | Tampa Bay Bucs | vs NE | 4 |
| 9 | New England Patriots | at TB | 5 |
| 10 | Chicago Bears | vs NYG | 9 |
| 11 | Baltimore Ravens | at MIN | 30 |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Steelers | at LAC | 14 |
| 13 | Indianapolis Colts | vs ATL | 12 |
| 14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | at HOU | 20 |
This Bucs and Patriots game is an interesting one because I like both defenses, and both offenses are just average matchups for fantasy purposes. Over the last six weeks, the Bucs are 2nd in turnover rate, 5th in EPA per play allowed, 7th in conversion rate allowed, 8th in opponents’ scoring rate, and 11th in the NFL in pressure rate while averaging 9.8 fantasy points per game. They’re coming off a bye, so they’ve had two weeks to prepare for a Patriots team that may be without Rhamondre Stevenson and also ranks 21st in the NFL in turnover rate and 31st in sack rate. Yes, the Patriots are fun, and Drake Maye is going to be very good, but he’s also taken 16 sacks in the last 3 games, and the Patriots allow six fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month. Tampa Bay could sneak into the top 10 here.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are 5th in the NFL in pressure rate, 7th in opponents’ scoring rate, 7th in EPA per play allowed, 8th in turnover rate, and 10th in conversion rate allowed, while averaging 9.2 fantasy points per game. So we have defenses that average over nine points per game against two offenses that allow six fantasy points per game to opposing defenses, and I think both of these teams could get 6-8 points and be fairly usable in fantasy. We do need to keep an eye on the Christian Gonzalez situation after the cornerback potentially suffered a concussion on Sunday.
We think of the Giants as an easy matchup for fantasy defenses because they lost Malik Nabers and Cam Skattebo, and maybe they should be, but they allow just 5 fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last six weeks and gave up just two to the 49ers on Sunday. Now, the Bears are a better fantasy defense than the 49ers, ranking 1st in turnover rate by a large margin, 11th in EPA per play allowed, and 12th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks, while averaging 7.6 fantasy points per game. However, we also saw their defense get lit up by the Bengals on Sunday. The Giants don’t have that kind of firepower currently healthy, but Jaxson Dart is impactful enough that this might not be a smash spot for the Bears.
I was wrong on the Ravens last week. Part of that is just that the Dolphins are terrible and had three trips to the red zone without points, but the other part is that the Ravens are starting to make some improvements lately, thanks to scheme changes and a couple of trades. I’m not yet ready to say that this Ravens defense is fixed, but I think they could be usable against J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings, especially if Aaron Jones can’t suit up due to his shoulder injury.
Seeing the Steelers ranked this high might be confusing because they’re a fairly old and average defense that ranks 7th in turnover rate over the last six weeks, but are strong in very little else. However, they’ve averaged seven fantasy points over the last six weeks and will get a Chargers offense that will be without Joe Alt again, after the stud left tackle hurt his ankle on Sunday. We saw how this Chargers offense got more stagnant when Alt was hurt earlier. I think the Steelers front, led by TJ Watt is going to be able to get a fair amount of pressure on Justin Herbert this weekend.
The Colts laid an egg against the Steelers, but Pittsburgh has been a tough matchup for fantasy defenses. The Falcons aren’t a great matchup, but they are also dealing with multiple injuries along the offensive line after their starting guards, Matthew Bergeron and Chris Lindstrom, got hurt against the Patriots. We’ll need to keep an eye on the practice reports, but the Colts are a solid defense, ranking 6th in the rate of tackles that go for a loss or no gain, 10th in turnover rate, 10th in opponents’ scoring rate over the last six weeks, so if they get a banged-up Falcons offense, they could be able to capitalize.
I don’t really want to play the Jaguars; I don’t trust them. However, they will also get to face Davis Mills against a really bad offensive line that also lost offensive tackle Tytus Howard (concussion) and guard Ed Ingram (knee) to injuries on Sunday, so I can see the argument for it.
| Rank | Tier Four DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 15 | Carolina Panthers | vs NO | 27 |
| 16 | New Orleans Saints | at CAR | 16 |
| 17 | Atlanta Falcons | at IND | 13 |
| 18 | Arizona Cardinals | at SEA | 19 |
| 19 | Minnesota Vikings | vs BAL | 21 |
| 20 | Philadelphia Eagles | at GB | 18 |
| 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | vs PIT | 17 |
I know everybody is clamoring to play the Panthers this week, but we’ve recently failed at chasing good matchups with bad defenses. The Bengals fell on their face against the Jets. The Jaguars didn’t deliver against the Raiders. The 49ers barely scored points against the Giants. So, yes, the Saints give up the most fantasy points to opposing defenses over the last month, but the Panthers also average just four fantasy points per game over the last six weeks. They’ve had two strong performances over the last six weeks, but also have three weeks where they scored negative points or no points. I know you want to trust them, but I think I’ve been burned too many times. Also, the Saints are 9th in turnover rate over the last six weeks and could be just as good a play as the Panthers this weekend.
The Eagles are super active on the trade market right now, and I think they could make a real impact, but perhaps not after just one week and not against the Packers. That being said, the Packers did lose Tucker Kraft for the season, and Mathew Golden is also hurt, so maybe I should be moving the Eagles up.
| Rank | Tier Five DSTs | Opponent | BOD RANKING |
| 22 | New York Jets | vs CLE | 31 |
| 23 | Miami Dolphins | vs BUF | 15 |
| 24 | Green Bay Packers | vs PHI | 25 |
| 25 | New York Giants | at CHI | 24 |
| 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | at DEN | 26 |
| 27 | Washington Commanders | vs DET | 28 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | vs LAR | 29 |
| 29 | Kansas City Chiefs | BYE | 7 |
| 30 | Dallas Cowboys | BYE | 22 |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans | BYE | 23 |
| 32 | Cincinnati Bengals | BYE | 32 |
Each week, Tier 5 will be defenses that I don’t think anybody should play outside of the deepest formats.
https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-defense-dst-week-10-rankings-and-streamers
