Early Week 10 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Eagles

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/early-week-10-nfl-bets-to-make-right-now-back-the-eagles-153814390.html

Before we start reviewing the NFL Week 10 card, remember that that the trade deadline is today, the same day that this article goes live. We need to factor in which teams might be buyers and sellers at the deadline, and the focal point is figuring out how to avoid the sellers for now in the betting market. Selling at the deadline and losing a valuable player will be more impactful than gaining one.

When gaining a player at the deadline, it will take some time to fully integrate them into the scheme on a new team, so (easy math), if a player is worth 1 point to the spread and gets traded, he may be a net negative at the full point leaving his team, but only be a half point upgrade in his new situation.

The three teams that I have earmarked as possible deadline sellers are the New Orleans Saints, Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals. The Saints are currently +5.5 road divisional dogs at the Carolina Panthers in Week 10. This is absolutely a line I would like to play and back the Saints against the spread, and a bit on the money line at +200.

My numbers would price this at Panthers -4.5 (-105)/Saints +4.5 (-115), with a money line at Saints +175. However, I can’t include the Saints as an early week bet in this article with the looming trade deadline. If you see the clock strike 4 p.m. ET and we don’t have a Saints deal, then go ahead and bet New Orleans +5.5.

This article is 13-2 over the last six weeks, after a 2-0 last week on the Las Vegas Raiders +3 (closing +2.5), and the Buffalo Bills +2.5 (closing +1.5). Right now because of the uncertainty around the deadline, there are only two more plays to add, but consider the Saints a third if they stand pat.

The routine is the same, close ahead of the market as the signal of value and beat the board in a very efficient sport. Going 13-2 is definitely above expectation, but I remain confident in a winning record moving forward.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-1, 38)

In the Texans’ Week 9 game against the Broncos, QB CJ Stroud took what seemed like a very dirty hit to his head as he was sliding. Upon replay, the hit was certainly illegal because Stroud had given himself up and initiated the slide, but the contact was not made to his head, Stroud’s head hit the turf in a whiplash motion, which caused a concussion.

Suffice to say, from an early week reading of the tea leaves it seems like Stroud will not clear concussion protocol in time for Sunday’s game vs. Jacksonville. It sounds heartless, but sometimes the truth is understanding the context and severity of injury news early in the week is an actionable edge in betting. Over the last two seasons, QBs who sustain a concussion the week prior are highly unlikely to be cleared and play the following week.

According to Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes, oddsmakers rated CJ Stroud before the season began as being worth 4.9 more points against the spread than his backup Davis Mills. My numbers make this game Texans -2.2, and I think it is also fair to say Stroud has underperformed this season and still would not maintain the full 4.9 gap over Mills.

If we downgrade the value of Stroud, and then factor in the 1.2 point differential between my projected price and the current price, then it seems Stroud is being priced as a true 50/50 to play this game. This is called probabilistic modeling: pairing a player value and originating a number, comparing it to the current market and deriving the likelihood a player is active or inactive. I am confident in betting that Stroud is closer to 90% out and 10% in (and that feels conservative on my end), and thus the Jaguars should actually be the favorite in the market.

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Let’s go one step further. The price of Jaguars +1 (-110) at BetMGM is paired next to a money line at +100. The +100 is a better value grab than paying 10 cents for the +1; it is worth about seven cents. Some content creators will just take the +1 because the minutia of the betting value does not reflect when they recirculate their record. I don’t care about that; +100 is the play.

If the Stroud news hits later in the week that he will be out, the total will also drop. The numbers 38 and 37 are both key numbers for betting low NFL totals. Parlaying Jaguars +100 and under 38 — the current price of this parlay is +270 at BetMGM — is also an optimal strategy here. There is not a pricey correlation tax, and closing line value is likely to be gained on both numbers, making this a rare spot to find a +EV parlay.

Take a unit and split it up between Jaguars ML +100 and the parlay at +270.

Bet: Jaguars +100 (0.67u); Jaguars +100 and under 38 (+270, 0.33u)

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 44.5)

Monday Night Football this week might be a preview of the NFC Championship Game. According to market-based power rankings going into Week 10, the Packers are listed a lone 1.0 points better than the Eagles. Factoring in home field advantage at 1.5 points, we get a price of Packers -2.5; this line is bang on. I do think it is fair to say Lambeau Field offers one of the strongest home-field advantages in the NFL, and therefore it is worth more than the standard 1.5, but since this spread is bordering on three, the most important NFL betting number, it will not be propped up enough to make this spread hit Packers -3.

There is a chance sharp action comes in either direction, but given that the lookahead numbers prior to Week 9 showed Eagles +3, and the Packers lost at home to the Carolina Panthers as two-touchdown favorites, it is pretty safe to say we are not seeing that Eagles +3 again. Anytime you can go throughout a week knowing with some certainty you will have the best number the market will offer, a chance to gain CLV and at worst stay at the number but maybe lose some value in vig price, you should take it.

This bet understands market asymmetry favoring the Eagles.

Bet: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/early-week-10-nfl-bets-to-make-right-now-back-the-eagles-153814390.html