Steve Garcia vs. David Onama prediction: Who takes UFC Fight Night 263 headliner?

Who will inch closer to a featherweight title shot in the UFC Vegas 110 main event?

Dan Tom
| MMA Junkie

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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC Fight Night 263 main event between Steve Garcia and David Onama.

Steve Garcia UFC Fight Night 263 preview

Staple info:

Record: 18-5 MMA, 7-2 UFC
Height: 6’0″ Age: 33 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 75″
Last fight: Decision win over Calvin Kattar (July 12, 2025)
Camp: Jackson-Wink MMA (New Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Southpaw/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA title
+ IKF kickboxing championship (lightweight)
+ 14 KO victories
+ 7 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ 7 knockdowns in last 8 fights
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Dangerous left hand
^ Variates looks and levels
+ Dynamic kicking attacks
^ Thai kicks, teeps, oblique kicks
+I mproved wrestling and grappling
^ Transitions well from top or bottom
+ Vicious ground striking
^ Nasty elbows
+/- 5-0 in the UFC Apex (6-0 including DWCS)

David Onama UFC Fight Night 263 preview

Staple info:

Record: 14-2 MMA, 6-2 UFC
Height: 5’11” Age: 31 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 74″
Last fight: Decision win over Giga Chikadze (April 26, 2025)
Camp: Factory X Muay Thai (Denver)
Stance/striking style: Switch-stance/muay Thai
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA title
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu blue belt
+ 7 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 6 first-round finishes
+ KO Power
+ Good cardio and recoverability
+I mproved feints and footwork
^ Can shift and strike from both stances
+ Solid straight punches
+ Servicable wrestling and grappling
^ Works well from topside
+ Deceptively tricky scrambler
+/- 1-0 against UFC-level southpaws
+/- 3-1 in the UFC Apex

Steve Garcia vs. David Onama point of interest: Featherweight fireworks

The main event in Las Vegas features a battle between two action-friendly featherweights, Steve Garcia and David Onama.

Garcia, who is ranked just ahead of Onama in the UFC featherweight Top 15, has quietly put together an impressive winning streak in one of the most stacked divisions in the organization.

A southpaw kickboxer who hails from the famed Jackson-Wink academy, Garcia brings a much more aggressive brand of striking than we’re used to seeing from his school. Although Garcia has a solid southpaw jab that he’s smartly leaned more on in recent outings, the “Mean Machine” offers a ton of powerful offense from his rear side.

Whether he’s launching hard teeps and Thai kicks or varying the looks on his left hand, Garcia makes it difficult to get comfortable between his change-ups and pressure. However, said pressure can also act as a potent two-way street considering that Garcia is not beyond being countered on his entries.

Despite getting better at doubling up on his left hands to achieve outside angles or displaying an ability to safely peck away with oblique kicks from range, Garcia – who is aggressive by nature – can be guilty of loading up on entry.

Onama may not be a one-shot counter sniper on paper, but the native of Uganda has proven to have both the power and prowess to end fights abruptly.

A former student of James Krause and the Glory MMA team, Onama was able to transition fairly smoothly to Glory’s sister gym of sorts, Factory X Muay Thai. Now working under the care of Marc Montoya and company, Onama has shown a much more deliberate feinting process to set up his kicks and punches.

Onama still shows the Thai marching variations that allow him to advance and shift stances, but has also gotten better at parlaying those motions into functional kick defense, which, in turn, helps open up counter opportunities.

Even though Onama has excellent straight punches when coming forward, he can get a bit tunnel vision when it comes to headhunting and will sparingly go to the body (despite showing some flashes of brilliance when he does decide to do so). Whether we’re talking about bodywork or mixing in takedown looks, changing levels, in general, will likely be a key for Onama to find success this Saturday.

Steve Garcia vs. David Onama breakdown: Potential grappling threats

Considering the chaos that’s forecasted on the feet, no one should be shocked if either party ends up trying to take things to the floor.

For my money, that person will probably be Onama.

Although Onama doesn’t have much of a higher takedown average on paper, it appears to be something that’s being built into his game. Despite spending most of his initial UFC career defending takedowns, Onama has steadily implemented them into his own game and will go to them when he’s looking to change things up – especially if a fighter offers any sort of size or striking parity.

Still, Onama does have a tendency to shoot naked on his shots and will need to make sure he’s offering the proper coverfire (as opposed to relying more on this timing and athleticism). Garcia is not beyond being taken down, but the New Mexico native has steadily improved his grappling and wrestling in recent years as well.

Aside from having an active and attacking guard, Garcia is no slouch when it comes to scrambling out of bad spots and getting back to his feet. And when Garcia gets on top, he more than earns his moniker with his vicious brand of ground-and-pound that features hellacious, thudding elbows that he plays on repeat.

Onama has shown a knack for turning negative positions into positive ones when it comes to fighters taking his back, but the 31-year-old will need to show immediate urgency anytime he ends up on bottom with someone like Garcia.

Steve Garcia vs. David Onama odds

The oddsmakers and the public slightly favor the American-born fighter, listing Garcia -140 and Onama +110 via FanDuel.

Steve Garcia vs. David Onama prediction, pick

Regardless of who you favor, I believe that the betting lines are correctly close for a fight like this.

Not only do Garcia and Onama lack five-round experience in the octagon, but both men also have a propensity for getting hurt early in their fights.

Garcia may appear to be less durable on paper, but it’s important to note that a lot of his troubles came against much larger men up at lightweight (during a time when Garcia was reportedly dealing with a lot of health issues). Since then, Garcia has looked right at home on this current featherweight run, which is probably why he is slightly favored to win here.

Although I’m a believer in Garcia’s abilities, I also can’t ignore the insane recoverability and dogged nature that exists in Onama.

I may have gotten some uncomfortable Meldrick Taylor vibes with the early wars that Onama has been subjected to in his young career, but I can’t say I’d be shocked to see him survive the storm and pull away down the stretch in a spot like this where he has five frames to work.

That said, I’m still not sold on Onama’s in-fight decision-making and defense, which has me leaning the other way. I also didn’t like how Onama looked against a southpaw in Gabriel Benitez (who was piecing him up before Onama came back to hurt him out of nowhere).

A slower start from both men should be expected, but the second frame will undoubtedly be the “hot round” for this fight. It’s not a contest that anyone should be predicting with confidence, but I’ll take Garcia to not fumble the lead once he has it.

The pick is Garcia to force a stoppage via strikes by the end of Round 2.

Prediction: Garcia inside the distance