Survivor contest picks, predictions, advice, strategy: Best Week 9 NFL selections

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/survivor-contest-picks-predictions-advice-strategy-best-week-9-nfl-selections-154622119.html

As bad as many NFL teams are, or are perceived to be, Week 8 was a reminder that, for Survivor contests, you still have to have the mindset of trusting one of 18 teams each week over the course of a season, more than relying on your pick’s opponent to roll over.

The Falcons, perhaps notable by their absence from our weekly recommendations despite a high implied win probability, didn’t provide hope for long, as the second-most popular choice in Circa Sports’ Survivor contest got blown out by the Dolphins.

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For those looking for the road less travelled by picking the Bengals, Cincinnati ended up being the third-most popular pick, negating much of the “zag” intended to be gained with such a risky choice. Even worse, the Bengals blew a 14-point lead to the previously winless Jets, and just like that, approximately half of entries went out.

Who remains?

For the first five weeks, options were abundant, and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of entrants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original entrants remaining is likely the same.

After eight weeks, whether you started with 20, 200, or 2000, there’s likely around 11% of original entrants left in your Survivor pool.

In Week 5, we saw the carnage that can only happen in Survivor contests, and it simplified things, as those who have survived likely have done so because they used either the Colts (over the Raiders) or Lions (over the Bengals).

Going into Week 8, 39% of Circa entrants had the Colts available and 95% of them used that to their advantage this past Sunday. If you used the Lions in Week 5, you likely used the Colts in Week 8. Meanwhile, those having already used Indianapolis backed themselves into a corner for last week, where temptation to take the Falcons or Bengals means they’re no longer in their pool, and no longer reading this. However, some may have survived with a less-popular choice, and we tip our cap.

Going forward, we’ll not just break down the best choices, and what you’re giving up by using them, but also the estimated percentage of entrants that still have them available (thanks to Circa’s availability matrix).

Week 9 money lines

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the money line, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).

Money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 9

(Matt Russell)

*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.

Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

Packers: 18.4
Lions: 18.4
Rams: 18.4
Ravens: 18.1
Colts: 18.1
Bills: 17.6
Seahawks: 16.7
Eagles: 16.2
Broncos: 16.2
Chargers: 15.4
Patriots: 15.4
Cowboys: 14.6
Jaguars: 14.0
Buccaneers: 13.5
Steelers: 13.5
Texans: 13.5
49ers: 13.5

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 8 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.

Week 9’s top choices

1. Rams (88.1%) over Saints

It never made sense that so many would take the Rams in Week 5, with this game not that far off in the distance. Even if you thought the banged-up 49ers would have little to offer as far as a threat, the Saints were always projected to be bigger underdogs here than the 8.5-point underdog San Francisco was that Thursday night.

Coming off their bye, the Rams’ implied win probability speaks for itself, especially as the Saints turn to rookie Tyler Shough for his first career start — and it’s unclear whether that’s an upgrade at quarterback.

Estimated Availability: 80.5%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 13 at Panthers (LAR -8.5)

If given the choice between the currently one-win Saints at home, or going cross-country to Carolina for the 4-4 Panthers, it doesn’t feel like you’re giving up much by burning L.A. this week, who are always one Matthew Stafford injury away from coming off the top-18 list of viable teams.

2. Packers (87.1%) over Panthers

We advised using the Packers in Week 6, as they beat the Bengals without much issue, but maybe you went another route (you free spirit, you).

If you’re one of the roughly one-third of entrants who didn’t take the cheese, so to speak, it’s likely because you were looking to save Green Bay for a similarly cozy matchup like this one.

Estimated Availability: 33%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 14 vs. Bears (GB -7)

Reason No. 1 to take the Packers back in Week 6: the Rams’ matchup with the Saints this week.

Reason No. 2 then, and Reason No. 1 to use the Packers now (if you’ve already used the Rams), is that Week 14 is expected to be a prime opportunity to use the Buccaneers, at home, against the Saints. Or, if Joe Burrow isn’t back with the Bengals, the Bills will be an option that week as well.

3. Chargers (82.8%) over Titans

With an availability in the high-90s, if you’ve somehow used both of the above, one of the few times where it will be advisable to take a road team is with the Chargers at Tennessee. The Bolts don’t know much in the way of home-field advantage back in L.A. anyway, while the Titans have yet to put up much of a second-half fight against anyone at home.

Estimated Availability: 97.3%

What you’re giving up (projected point spread):

Week 13 vs. Raiders (LAC -8)

Like the Rams, the only other option to use the Chargers is in Week 13 with a home game against the Raiders, which is when we’re saving the other L.A. team for. Many will say that “everyone will take the Rams this week” and “everyone will take the Chargers in Week 13.”

Ok, fine, but:

The selection percentage for the “obvious” pick is never as high as you think it is, so;
We’ll continue to watch as many entrants fall off the track when they out-think themselves looking for a different path.

Week 9 is somewhat basic in that the top-three picks are the most likely to win (by money line), but there’s a big gap between the fifth and sixth-most probably-victorious teams, and getting spicy isn’t necessary. Especially since we’ve just seen what happens when you venture away from one of the best 18 teams in the league, opting for blind trust in something like the Joe Flacco-led Bengals, and the Kirk Cousins-led Falcons.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/survivor-contest-picks-predictions-advice-strategy-best-week-9-nfl-selections-154622119.html