NFL betting, odds: Key trends for Week 9's top games, including Chiefs-Bills

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/nfl-betting-odds-key-trends-for-week-9s-top-games-including-chiefs-bills-224348949.html

If you like to wager on NFL favorites — and you did so last week — odds are you’re reading this from your new yacht.

In what was a glorious weekend for the wagering public, favorites went 11-2 straight-up and 11-2 against the spread in Week 8.

Throw in a 9-6 ATS mark in Week 7, and favorites are cashing at a 71.4% clip the past two weeks.

Will this torrid streak continue? We’ll find out soon enough, as Week 9 kicks off Thursday with the Dolphins hosting the Ravens.

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This much is clear, though: Bettors will have to navigate a bunch of Week 9 landmines, as visiting teams are laying points in eight of 14 games.

How have road favorites fared so far in 2025? 28-14-1 SU and 24-19 ATS.

Half of this week’s road favorites are featured in our latest NFL betting trends report. As usual, all three prime-time matchups are highlighted, as are the most intriguing games in the early and late Sunday afternoon windows.

All listed odds are via BetMGM and subject to change.

Ravens (-7.5, 50.5) at Dolphins

Kickoff: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Ravens -450/Dolphins +350

• Baltimore halted a four-game SU and ATS losing skid with a 30-16 rout of Chicago in Week 8.

Both of the Ravens’ wins this season have been blowouts (the other being a 41-17 trouncing of Cleveland in Week 2).

In fact, Baltimore’s last 14 regular-season and playoff victories going back to Week 4 of 2024 have been by an average margin of 16.3 points. That includes 11 wins by at least a touchdown and nine by double digits.

Final scores of the team’s last six wins: 30-16, 41-17, 28-14, 35-10, 31-2, 34-17 and 35-14.

• The Ravens are just 2-3 SU and ATS as a favorite this season, but 12-7-1 ATS when laying points since Week 4 of 2024.

More impressively, Baltimore has cashed in seven consecutive games when favored by more than 6 points.

• Miami posted the biggest Week 8 upset, crushing the Falcons 34-10 as a 7-point road underdog.

The Dolphins have not won back-to-back games since Weeks 16 and 17 of last year. However, dating back to Week 10 of 2021, they’re on a 7-0 ATS roll as an underdog of 6 points or more (one postseason game included).

• A few NFL betting trends suggest this could be a high-scoring affair.

First, the Ravens are 19-5 “over” since the 2024 campaign kicked off, including 6-1 this season (2-0 on the road).

And while Miami’s 6-0 “over” streak was (barely) snapped last week at Atlanta, it has cleared the total in nine straight home games.

The over also has cashed in each of Baltimore’s last four visits to South Beach. Finally, the last four “Thursday Night Football” games have hurdled the total.

Colts (-3, 50.5) at Steelers

Kickoff: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Colts -165/Steelers +140

• Indianapolis is riding a four-game winning streak, including three lopsided victories over the Raiders (40-6), Chargers (38-24) and Titans (38-14).

The Colts also crushed Tennessee 41-20 in Week 3 and opened the season with a 33-8 rout of Miami. Indy’s only competitive contests so far: Home wins over Denver (29-28) and Arizona (31-27), plus a 27-20 loss at the Rams in Week 4.

The Colts’ 6-2 ATS mark is tied with New England for tops in the NFL. Also, the team’s 270 points are 24 more than the next highest-scoring team (Dallas).

• Indianapolis running back Jonathan Taylor leads the NFL with 850 rushing yards (97 more than anyone else) and 14 total touchdowns (five more than anyone else).

Taylor has topped 100 yards in half of the Colts’ eight games, and he’s scored three touchdowns four times in the last six contests.

This week, the two-time Pro Bowler faces a Steelers defense that ranks 18th against the run (112.7 yards per game) but has only surrendered five rushing TDs.

Taylor is projected for 96.5 rushing yards at BetMGM. His odds to score more than one touchdown at another sportsbook: +188.

• The Colts beat Pittsburgh each of the last two seasons, both times at home (30-13 in 2023, 27-24 in 2024).

Those results ended an impressive NFL betting trend for the Steelers: They had won eight consecutive head-to-head meetings (6-2 ATS) from 2011-22.

The last time Indy won in Pittsburgh? It was in 2005 in a 26-7 victory as an 8-point underdog.

• Since 2008, the over is 9-2 when the Colts and Steelers square off (2-2 in Pittsburgh).

This season, the over is 5-2 in Steelers games and 5-3 in Colts games.

Chiefs (-2, 52.5) at Bills

Kickoff: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Chiefs -135/Bills +115

• It’s one of the most well-known NFL betting trends of this generation: Bills quarterback Josh Allen owns Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the regular season, but the script flips come playoff time.

To wit, Buffalo is 4-0 SU and ATS against Kansas City in the regular season since 2021 (including two outright upsets).

However, Mahomes and the Chiefs have eliminated the Bills from the postseason four times since 2020 (including twice in the AFC championship game).

• Allen had just 163 passing yards in last week’s 40-9 rout of Carolina, his second-lowest output of the season. Allen has now thrown for 213 yards or fewer in five of seven games.

However, the reigning NFL MVP has thrown multiple TD passes five times this season. One exception was last week; he had just one passing TD (but two rushing scores).

Against Kansas City, Allen has averaged 252.2 passing yards in the regular season (including 284.8 yards in four wins); thrown 10 touchdowns; rushed for 220 yards (on 53 carries); and scored three times on the ground.

Allen’s projections for Sunday’s home game versus the Chiefs (per BetMGM): 235.5 passing yards, 1.5 touchdowns (over -120) and 37.5 rushing yards. He also has -105 odds to rush for a score.

• Kansas City is in the midst of a season-best three-game SU and ATS winning streak, and is 5-1 SU and ATS over the past six weeks.

Mahomes has topped 255 passing yards in each of the last five games (286 per-game average) and thrown 14 touchdowns (at least three each in the last three contests).

The two-time NFL and Super Bowl MVP has averaged 260.4 passing yards in five regular-season games against Buffalo, with 10 TDs (at least two TDs four times).

Mahomes’ passing yards prop for Sunday is 275.5, and he’s +140 to throw more than two TDs.

• Mahomes and Allen have engaged in four straight postseason shootouts, with each game clearing 50 points. In fact, the over has hit in six Chiefs-Bills playoff meetings since 1991.

However, three of the five Mahomes vs. Allen battles in the regular season have stayed below.

Final scores in those five contests: 26-17, 38-20, 24-20, 20-17 and 30-21.

Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes square off again Sunday. (Photo by Bryan Bennett/Getty Images)

(Bryan Bennett via Getty Images)

Seahawks (-3, 47.5) at Commanders

Kickoff: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Seahawks -175/Commanders +145

• Seattle is responsible for one of the hottest active NFL betting trends: It has won a franchise-record nine consecutive road games (7-2 ATS).

During this heater, the Seahawks have posted five outright upsets and won four times as favorites (2-2 ATS).

A big reason for Seattle’s recent success as a visitor? The defense has allowed just 16.3 points per game. Only the Rams, who lost 30-25 in last year’s finale, scored more than 21 points.

• After dropping their third consecutive game Monday night at Kansas City, the Commanders (3-5) have already matched the number of losses of last year’s 12-win squad.

Washington also is in the midst of an 0-3 ATS funk, which matches last year’s longest point-spread drought.

On the bright side, the Commanders are still 9-3 SU and ATS at home since the start of 2024. They were underdogs in just one of those contests, a 36-33 upset of Philadelphia in Week 16 last year.

• If you believe in recent history, the point spread likely won’t matter in this contest.

That’s because the straight-up winner is 20-2 ATS in Seattle’s last 24 games (7-0 this year) and 31-3-1 ATS in Washington’s last 35 regular-season and playoff games (8-0 this year).

Cardinals at Cowboys (-2.5, 54)

Kickoff: Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Moneyline: Cardinals +125/Cowboys -150

• Since its 40-40 tie with Green Bay in the Week 4 Sunday Night Football matchup, Dallas has alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last four contests.

And while the Cowboys got hammered 44-24 at Denver as a 4-point underdog in Week 7, they’re 2-0-1 SU and 2-1 ATS following a defeat this year.

Dallas also is 5-2 ATS as a “Monday Night Football” favorite since 2016. One of the non-covers, though: a 38-10 loss to the Cardinals in 2020 as 1-point home chalk.

In fact, the Cowboys are 1-7 SU and ATS versus Arizona since 2008.

• The Cardinals limped into their Week 8 bye on a five-game losing skid, yet they somehow covered the point spread in three of those contests.

That’s not a surprising NFL betting trend, though, as the underdog is 15-5 ATS in Arizona games since Week 4 of last season (5-1 ATS the last six weeks).

During this stretch, the Cardinals have cashed in nine of 11 contests when catching points (four outright upsets).

On the downside, since 2018, the franchise is 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS following a bye (0-3 SU and ATS the last three years).

• The over is 8-4 in Arizona’s last 12 games, with the last three in a row topping the total.

Meanwhile, Dallas has been the NFL’s most profitable “over” team since the 2024 campaign started. The Cowboys have cleared the total in 18 of 26 games, including the last five in row.

Total points scored during Dallas’ current 5-0 “over” streak: 80, 59, 57, 66 and 68.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/nfl-betting-odds-key-trends-for-week-9s-top-games-including-chiefs-bills-224348949.html