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Kayshon Boutte, Zay Flowers headline Week 9's Regression Files

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https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/kayshon-boutte-zay-flowers-headline-week-9s-regression-files

The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.

Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.

👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files: Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).

I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing Jahmyr Gibbs during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.

You may be among the football knowers who see no real fantasy application for nerdy stuff like expected points added (EPA) and success rate. And yeah, on a basic level, you’re right: You don’t look at EPA to make a start-sit decision. Or you shouldn’t, anyway.

EPA and success rate can give us a zoomed-out view of an offense’s efficiency though. These metrics can point to offensive units that are performing better (or worse) than one might think by glancing at normie stats like yards and points, things of that nature. Below I started with yards per point, which can identify offenses running hot or cold, and buttressed that data with EPA and success rate (and expected team points) to get a well-rounded view of whether an offense can keep doing what they’re doing, or whether they’re primed to break out after a relatively slow first half of the regular season.

This high-level look at NFL offenses, I think, can suss out some (positive and negative) regression candidates in the coming two months. That’s the idea anyway.

Top Ten Yards Per Point

  1. Colts (11.4)
  2. Lions (11.6)
  3. Eagles (11.7)
  4. Steelers (11.9)
  5. Cowboys (12.5)
  6. Ravens (12.7)
  7. Seahawks (12.8)
  8. Bills (12.9)
  9. Packers (13)
  10. Bucs (13.1)

◆ I’ve mentioned Baker Mayfield and the Bucs offense more than a couple times in this regression-centric space because they Get Away With It maybe more than any other team in the league. It’s not a particularly good offense. Tampa ranks 19th in yards per play (5.2) and 16th in expected points, as measured by Pro Football Reference. Their 42 percent offensive success rate ranks a lowly 27th, somehow below the Giants, Jets, and Saints. We kinda sorta saw the Bucs offensive house of cards collapse in Week 8 against a middling New Orleans offense. The wide receivers injuries have wreaked havoc on what was supposed to be a hyper-productive offense. Mayfield, meanwhile, has been all over the place. He’s the seventh most inaccurate quarterback in football this season; on throws between 10-20 yards, Mayfield has been as accurate as Carson Wentz and Justin Fields. Count me skeptical of the Bucs’ second half offensive prospects. No team can Get Away With It forever. The Regression Reaper cometh.

◆ Basically every Ravens player is severely underrated, assuming Lamar Jackson didn’t suffer a major setback in his apparently serious hamstring injury. Baltimore was third in EPA per play and seventh in success rate before Jackson’s injury. Zay Flowers, running ice cold on touchdowns, has a chance to go off with a fully healthy Lamar under center. Only two teams have a more favorable schedule rest of season.

◆ Sam Darnold’s Seahawks can absolutely keep this up. Seattle’s offense, coming into form after starting the year as a JSN vanity project created by play callers who see their WR1 as a cross between Jerry Rice and Randy Moss, is coming into form as an efficient, balanced attack quarterbacked by one of the game’s most accurate passers. Here’s the thing though: They have some room for improvement over the next couple months. The Hawks rank 14th in scoring rate (possessions that end with a score) and 29th in third down conversion rate (this is mostly because they insist on using Zach Charbonnet, the single-worst back in the NFL, as their primary ball carrier). Seattle ranks ninth in expected points, just behind the Bills and ahead of teams like the Eagles and Chargers. Local Nirvana fan Sam Darnold and the Seahawks face the sixth easiest schedule from Week 9-17.

◆ Do the Steelers strike you as a particularly elite offense? Aaron Rodgers’ nonstop check downs and an offense without much in the way of game-breaking pass catchers or rushers doesn’t seem like the kind of unit that can keep it humming in the second half of the season. Pittsburgh has been the third most efficient red zone team, but they’re 24th in red zone possessions per game (2.4). Six of seven Rodgers completions inside the ten yard line have gone for touchdowns. The Steelers have the sixth toughest schedule from here on out. I’ve done the research, I’ve run the numbers, and this stuff can’t last.

Bottom Ten Yards Per Point

32. Falcons (20.1)

31. Raiders (18.8)

30. Saints (18.4)

29. Titans (18.1)

28. 49ers (17.5)

27. Browns (16.7)

26. Panthers (16.4)

25. Chargers (16.1)

24. Jaguars (16.1)

23. Texans (15)

◆ If you throw out their wretched Week 8 performance against the Dolphins — an omission I believe is fair considering Kirk Cousins’ abominable play — the Falcons aren’t that bad on offense. Coming into Week 8, Atlanta ranked 20th in EPA per play. They were 14th in offensive success rate, right alongside the hyper-efficient Patriots offense. The Falcons have been abysmal in the red zone, as you may know if you spent a bunch of draft capital on a fantasy-relevant Atlanta player. They’ve turned 45 percent of their red zone possessions into touchdowns through Week 8, the fourth lowest rate in the league. But they’re averaging nearly three red zone possessions per game, which isn’t all that bad. Michael Penix has been quietly disastrous this season and the Falcons seem predictable in all facets of the game. They’re running cold, and they have at least a couple (very) talented players who can still get it done in an offense that’s moving the ball OK.

◆ Kyle Shanahan’s Machine is not exactly making the EPA Machine go brrrr. His Niners are 19th in EPA per play, but top-8 in offensive success rate. Only the Chargers and Packers have been better at converting third downs. It’s the turnovers, stupid. The 49ers have the league’s second highest turnover rate (15 percent); only the Raiders have been worse. If that turnover rate inching downward in the coming weeks — and it could with an increasingly healthy Niners offense — we could see 49ers plays not named CMC score some dang fantasy points in the season’s second half.

◆ Houston’s offense appears to have a pulse after a year and a half of looking like a bottom-five unit. A halfway decent three-week run by CJ Stroud has put the Texans at 20th in EPA per play. Over the past three weeks, only 11 teams have a higher EPA per play, and five teams have been better in success rate. The Texans offense is clicking right now. That’s reflected in their scoring opportunities: Houston has averaged 4.4 red zone chances per game over the past three weeks, way up from their season long average of 2.6. Stroud’s intermediate accuracy has ticked up in a meaningful way over the past month and the Texans are top-10 in pass rate over expected (which might be a necessity considering their lack of running back production). The Texans have the league’s second worst red zone TD rate (42 percent). If (or when) that ticks up, secondary and possibly tertiary Texans players could be interesting for fantasy purposes over the next couple months. That includes Jaylin Noel, who in Week 8 — with Nico Collins sidelined — only ran half the routes but was targeted on a strong 32 percent of those routes, leading Houston in air yards.

◆ The Chargers have my attention here. They’re averaging 3.5 red zone possessions per game and are top-12 in EPA per play this season, yet they rank 17th in points per game (23.5). A mere six teams are averaging more yards per play than Justin Hebert’s Bolts. Some good touchdown variance (luck) in the final half of the season would make sense in an offense quarterbacked by Herbert and replete with three (four?) excellent pass catchers.

◆ Not seen here: The Commanders, who have the ninth-highest yards per play (5.9) despite missing Jayden Daniels for a chunk of the season. The team is still somehow 12th in EPA per play and 11th in drop back success rate. If Daniels ever gets to 100 percent health, Washington players could finally start scoring some touchdowns, which would be nice. Right now the Commanders are bottom-five in red zone possessions per game (2.5), but converting 77 percent of those chances into touchdowns. Only the Chiefs have been better.

📈 Positive Regression Candidates

Zay Flowers (BAL)

Flowers has just one touchdown this season on 55 targets. Maybe that’s just what happens when a guy sees one inside-the-ten target through seven weeks of play.

It’s not that the Ravens have been incredibly run-heavy in the green zone; they rank 20th in pass rate over expected within ten yards of the end zone. It’s just that Flowers is not part of the plan in that high-leverage part of the field. So it goes.

The return of Lamar Jackson should make the Baltimore offense at least slightly more pass heavy, and in Week 9 the Ravens face a weak Miami secondary (that somehow looked like the Legion of Doom in Week 8 against the down-nightmarish Falcons). Being targeted on a hefty 28 percent of his routes this season, Flowers is set up nicely for a second half surge. The Regression Reaper sometimes brings good news.

Troy Franklin (DEN)

Highlighted in this space last week — excuse me while I separate my shoulder patting myself on the back — Franklin is still, somehow, a positive regression candidate even after his blowup performance against Dallas (six catches, 89 yards, two touchdowns).

Franklin through Week 8 has converted a measly 26 percent of his air yards into actual, edible yards. Only four receivers had a lower conversion rate. He enters this week with the tenth most air yards in the entire NFL. Franklin, running basically all the routes in a balanced Denver offense, could continue seeing positive regression in Week 9 against the Texans. It might matter for Franklin and the other Broncos pass catchers that the team ranks as the seventh pass-heaviest offense inside the ten yard line.

📉 Negative Regression Candidates

Kayshone Boutte (NE)

Boutte, like a lot of downfield pass catchers, has bounced around the Regression Files this season, from negative to positive and back again.

Drake Maye is running hotter than hot on downfield passes. You know this — and you enjoy it very much — if you took him in fantasy drafts as a late-round guy. Maye through Week 8 has converted 70 percent of his air yards into real yards, the highest rate in the NFL. As the Patriots’ lone deep-ball fella, Boutte has been the primary beneficiary of this wild efficiency, as evidenced by his 78 percent air yards conversion rate. No wideout with more than 20 targets this season has a higher rate.

New England’s passing attack is one of the best surprises of the 2025 season. Maye deciding he does not want to be a boring modern NFL quarterback fixated on taking what the defense gives him means his career upside is probably beyond even his most ardent backers’ imaginations. He could be a legend if he doesn’t fall into the Checkdown Pit of Despair that swallows so many elite passers.

Boutte, who averages 17 air yards per target, should continue benefiting from Maye’s determination to let it rip. I’m only telling you he’s due for a little negative regression. No receiver in the NFL is further over his expected fantasy output this season, not even Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

Dallas Goedert (PHI)

You need to know the following: All five of Geodert’s inside-the-ten targets have gone for touchdowns this season. Six of his seven inside-the-20 catches have been touchdowns. That’s hot. Real hot. Too hot.

Goedert should continue to start in 12-team leagues when the Eagles return from their bye. Please be aware that Goedert is going to continue being as touchdown-reliant as any tight end in football. A reversion to a massively run-heavy approach for the Eagles — after the team’s lurid flirtation with a balanced offense for a few weeks — could further complicate things for Goedert in the season’s second half.

RJ Harvey (DEN)

I know, you’re too savvy to fall for this sort of thing. But in case you’re not — in case you fell into a trance while watching Harvey score thrice against the Cowboys last Sunday — this one is for you.

It’s nice that the Broncos are drawing up plays for their talented rookie back. It’s nice that Sean Payton hasn’t completely forgotten about Harvey even as JK Dobbins checks every box a veteran rusher can check. But don’t ignore that Harvey on the season has run a route on 24 percent of the team’s drop backs, and in Week 8 against Dallas, logged a mere seven routes and happened to catch a touchdown on his lone target.

Harvey is averaging a paltry 5.5 rushing attempts per game. Dobbins, meanwhile, is averaging 15. There’s always a chance the Broncos do that thing where you use your explosive rookie back more late in the season, but for now, it remains Dobbins’ backfield. Harvey is a role player. My best ball teams weep.

https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/kayshon-boutte-zay-flowers-headline-week-9s-regression-files

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