Fantasy Football Panic Meter Week 9: We need to have patience with the Bears offense

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-panic-meter-week-9-we-need-to-have-patience-with-the-bears-offense-152143139.html

I was watching my oldest son play soccer a couple of weeks ago, and I knew within 20 minutes that his team wasn’t going to win. There wasn’t a talent disadvantage, but it was the little things cropping up at the worst times.

Our often sure-footed center back shanked a pass leading to a goal. A penalty on a throw-in, and his teammates not reacting in time, led to another. The kicker (pun intended) was when my son whiffed trying to connect with the ball after it hit a divot in the grass and popped up.

If it wasn’t one thing, it was another.

That’s what eight weeks of fantasy football have felt like. We start to understand a trend, and then an injury or a schematic shift changes our perception. And in some cases, we should be panicking over the long-term outlook for our fantasy stars. However, in two others, it’s time to accept what we’ve seen as emblematic of what to expect for the rest of the season.

The Bears’ passing game will be a work in progress

We’ve declared the Bears offense “fixed” a couple of times now this season. First, the passing game had meshed during Caleb Williams’ two-week stretch, including one matchup against the Lions, with Rome Odunze racking up 190 yards in the process. Then, HC Ben Johnson “fixed” the running game while facing New Orleans with 200 yards combined from D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai.

However, everything felt disjointed on Sunday.

Sure, Williams can still 360-no-scope with the best of them. But let’s look at the three plays after. An incomplete pass to Colston Loveland, a two-yard gain to Devin Duvernay, a failed designed run and a missed throw to DJ Moore in the end zone. These sequences were supposed to be part of the appeal for getting an head coach like Johnson. But judging by Williams’ on-field tendencies since the bye, there’s still some meshing that needs to happen between the QB and play-caller.

EPA per Dropback (since Week 6): 0.16 (In Structure*), -0.10 (Out of Structure)
Air Yards per Attempt: 3.8, 13.0
Passing Success Rate: 44.7%, 39.2%

*In Structure — plays with an average of 2.5 seconds or less to throw

Admittedly, I’m using a blanket (and somewhat archaic) metric to determine what’s within the confines of the intended play call or not. But you can see the conflicting styles between Johnson and Williams through the contrast in the stats.

From ’22 to ’24, Jared Goff had the 10th-fastest time to throw (2.61 seconds) with the shortest passing depth (6.7 air yards). Williams was almost a half-second slower (3.03) and threw farther (8.1) just last year. Getting the second-year passer to adjust his approach was going to take time. However, at least for our purposes, the “one step forward, two steps back” development plan for Williams has put Odunze on a better path.

Week 6: 17% (target rate), 21.4 (aDOT), 43% (air yard share)
Week 7: 26%, 14.3, 41%
Week 8: 29%, 13.8, 45%

Unsurprisingly, running routes closer to your QB makes things easier for both parties. Regardless, the foundation for much of what we saw in Detroit is there. But Williams has to get more comfortable being under center (61.3% shotgun rate in Week 8 — highest since bye) and operating quicker. Playing against the Bengals in Week 9 will help, but we should all be willing to give this passing attack some time to come together.

Panic Meter: Low to Moderate

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Atlanta probably wants a do-over after last week

I was talking to Matt Harmon on Sunday night about the Falcons’ performance. In hindsight, there were signs. To be clear, there weren’t any indications of a 48-scrimmage-yard outing from one of the best RBs against one of the worst rush defenses. But the potential for a letdown was there.

Look at the second-level communication from Minkah Fitzpatrick on the first play. The pre-snap motion didn’t fool them. There wasn’t a credible threat for them to follow. Drake London’s absence made their job easier. Having to track Darnell Mooney, David Sills and KhaDarel Hodge is a simpler proposition, as none of them can execute timing routes at London’s level. Atlanta knew that. We (maybe) should’ve known that. But, critically, the Dolphins did understand it, and adjusted their defensive plan accordingly.

Put a hobbled QB on the field without his best receiving option and you’re asking for a bad time. It’s as if the Falcons expected the Dolphins not to make any schematic shifts. Meanwhile, Robinson saw more jerseys from the opponent at the line of scrimmage than he had all season.

Stacked Box Rate: 55.6% (Week 8), 25.8% (Weeks 1-7)
Rushing Success Rate: 33.3%, 50.5%
Yards Before Contact per Att.: 0.8, 1.2

Simply put, Atlanta came in with the wrong approach to this game. Darnell Mooney, now as your WR1, averaging 21.3 air yards per target, isn’t going to keep your offense on schedule. Asking your receiving TE to block in the run game instead of bringing in an extra OL (zero plays with six linemen or more) not only tips off the defense, but also lessens the effectiveness of the concept.

Robinson now gets to face the Patriots, Colts and Panthers over the next three weeks. Those defenses collectively have allowed just two 100-yard rushers and eight rushing TDs. Even with London set to return, Atlanta needs a better strategy on offense, independent of who’s under center.

Panic Meter: Moderate

The “soft benching” ends in Minnesota

First and foremost, shoutout to Carson Wentz for putting his long-term health on the line. I’d turn into dust after taking a hit from a defender, and Wentz was routinely getting pummeled as J.J. McCarthy worked back from his ankle injury.

Now, the Vikings can turn back to their second-year passer, which may underwhelm fantasy managers.

I used McCarthy’s designed run for two reasons. One, his mobility gives him a leg up (pun intended) on Wentz. The “rookie” QB has limited negative plays with a 50% success rate on scrambles and fewer yards lost on sacks (5.2 to 6.6). However, his involvement in the rushing attack, planned or not, limited much of what we wanted to see from his pass-catchers.

Dropback Rate Over Expectation: -9% (w/ McCarthy), +5% (w/ Wentz)
Passing Yards per Game: 127.0, 233.0
Players per Game: 47.5, 61.0

Justin Jefferson went from the WR26 to the WR14 in PPR PPG after Wentz took over. Jordan Addison slotted right back into his WR2 role both in real and fantasy football after serving his three-game suspension. However, with McCarthy still getting in sync with his receivers (-7.3% completion percentage over expected, 33rd out of 34 qualifiers through Week 2), Jefferson’s 34% target rate during McCarthy’s early-season tenure highlights him as only pass-catcher we can have confidence in starting. However, with the potential lean toward the running game, at least somebody benefits.

Rushing Share: 45%
Routes per Team Dropback: 50%
Target Rate: 14%

Aaron Jones Sr. wasn’t on a snap count or eased back into the rotation during last week’s TNF. He took over the backfield, relegating Jordan Mason back to his RB2 status. Jones took all of the two-minute snaps and cut Mason’s routes in half. While the former 49er should be a viable bench stash or an emergency start during heavy bye weeks, Jones’ command over the backfield with McCarthy back should position him for a top-24 outlook as we head into the second half of the season.

Let’s check back in on Cam Ward in 2026

The 2024 season spoiled us. Other than Spencer Rattler, who just got “Shough’d,” we have multiple starting QBs from that class. So, watching Cam Ward go first overall to the Titans rightfully piqued our interest. However, at 4.3 sacks per game and zero multi-TD outings, it’s fair to wonder if Ward can make an impact. But then again, I see the potential a few times each game.

Only Dillon Gabriel is less efficient in obvious passing situations. And if the Titans’ line breaks, Ward’s winding up horizontal is a likely outcome. His 29.3% pressure-to-sack ratio is the highest of any starter, and the third-worst rate of any rookie QB through two months of their first year over the last 10 draft classes. But again, I won’t put it all on Ward. There’s a coaching element the front office has to address.

Pre-Snap Motion: 28.6%, 32nd
Middle of the Field Throw Rate: 46.2%, 24th
Play-Action Rate: 20.5%, 28th

Individually, there are workarounds for these play-calling deficiencies. You could trade whatever information you’d get from the defense using pre-snap motion with quick-game concepts. Let’s do that! Ward has the fourth-slowest average time to throw (2.91 seconds).

Big-bodied boundary receivers capable of high-pointing an out-breaking route lessen the need for YAC over the middle of the field. Great! Calvin Ridley is hurt, leaving Ward with Van Jefferson and rookie Elic Ayomanor.

RPOs or QB mobility can offset a lack of play-action concepts. Why don’t they try it?! The offensive line is 27th in run block win rate, and Tony Pollard ranks 18th out of 22 RBs in adjusted yards after contact per attempt. Plus, Ward has just 10 scrambles on the season. Oh, and the Titans’ offensive line coach bounced after the team fired his son. However, Sunday did highlight a couple of bright spots Ward can lean on to get him through the year.

Tyjae Spears has incrementally worked his way back into the offense since his return from injury. He’s taken over the two-minute snaps and earned three or more targets in three straight games. Plus, Spears took the lone goal-line carry. The third-year RB has the profile of a mid-range RB3, best suited for bye weeks, but he’s not the only one on Tennessee with the same viability.

Week 6: 66% (Route Rate), 6% (Target Share)
Week 7: 67%, 13%
Week 8: 91%, 22%

Chimere Dike’s routes and targets have been steadily rising with Ridley sidelined and Lockett out to Vegas. Dike has played 75.0% of his snaps from the slot with the highest manufactured touch rate of any of the Titans’ receivers (30.0%). In other words, the coaches understand what can happen when the ball is in Dike’s hands. However, they have to consider being in negative game scripts throughout most of their Sundays.

Like I said in the intro, if it’s not one thing, it’s another. But it’s a bad situation we can’t expect to be resolved by Week 9. Or even after their bye. In the meantime, let’s enjoy watching Dike working after the catch and Ayomanor turning into their WR1 of the future. Because we likely won’t see the best of Ward until next season.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-panic-meter-week-9-we-need-to-have-patience-with-the-bears-offense-152143139.html