NFL Week 9 betting, odds, lines: 5 biggest storylines, including a historic week for favorites

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If you bet only favorites, Week 8 in the NFL wasn’t so boring.

For just about everyone else, it was one of the most predictable weeks in recent memory. Only one game was decided by single digits. That was the New York Jets’ unbelievable comeback win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Only two underdogs covered, making for a historic week for chalk in the NFL. It wasn’t great football. Unless you had a lot of favorites, and then it might have been the easiest week you’ve had in many years.

Here are the top betting storylines going into Week 9 of the NFL season, with all odds from BetMGM:

Favorites on a roll

Week 8 was just a 13-game sample size, and perhaps favorites covering at such an easy rate never repeats again. The 11-2 record against the spread was the best winning percentage for favorites since December of 1985, according to Evan Abrams of Action Network.

It’s not just a one-week aberration. Favorites are 21-7 the last two weeks. They’re 69-51-1 this season, according to Covers.com. Is there a reason for the trend? It could be that there are more bad teams than usual this early in the season. The bottom half of the NFL has plenty of uncompetitive teams. Oddsmakers will adjust, but favorites are ruling this season.

Rashee Rice and the Kansas City Chiefs were one of the favorites who won big in Week 8. (Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images)

(Jamie Squire via Getty Images)

Overs do well too

Casual bettors usually lean on betting favorites and overs. Week 8 was a bonanza for those players.

Favorites winning big was the obvious story last week, but overs did very well too. Overs were 9-3 before Monday night, when the under hit in the Commanders-Chiefs game. Still, 9-4 isn’t that bad and it continues a pretty good trend for overs hitting. Overs are 64-54 this season, a decent 54.2% clip. The new kickoff rules, which have led to many more returns, could be having a small effect on that. But overall, scoring is doing pretty well in the NFL this season. We’ll see if that continues as the weather gets worse.

Rams are biggest favorite of Week 9

We have a few big spreads this week, perhaps in reaction to favorites covering 57.5% of the time this season. There are six spreads of 5.5 or more, with three double-digit spreads. The biggest spread on the board is Rams -13.5 over the Saints. The Saints have not been good on the road this season (they haven’t been great at home either) and are contemplating a quarterback switch to rookie Tyler Shough.

That still leaves plenty of games with reasonable point spreads. Maybe that will lead to a better week of football, after nearly an entire slate of uncompetitive games in Week 8.

Handling Lamar Jackson’s return (?)

One of the stories in the betting world last week was the Baltimore Ravens misrepresenting Jackson’s status for Sunday’s game, then the point spread shifting in a big way when he was ruled out on Sunday. The Ravens were a 6.5-point favorite over the Bears most of the week, then that dropped to Ravens -2.5 before kickoff. It was as low as Ravens -1.5 at times. The Ravens still covered with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.

This week Jackson should be back, though it’s hard to trust the Ravens after last week. We should wait for the Ravens’ inactive list on Thursday to fully believe it. The Ravens are a 7.5-point favorite over the Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. The more interesting odds shift with the Ravens this week happened in the divisional odds. The Ravens won, the Steelers lost and the Ravens took over as a pretty healthy favorite to win the AFC North. They’re -125 to win the division, with the Steelers at +160. It’s jarring to see a 2-5 team with minus odds to win the division, but oddsmakers have maintained a lot of respect for the Ravens.

Jonathan Taylor for MVP? Probably not

Oddsmakers know that when it comes to MVP, non-quarterbacks don’t really have much of a shot.

Taylor is having a tremendous season for the Indianapolis Colts. Puka Nacua’s injury allowed Taylor to become a pretty big favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year. There has been some MVP chatter with the Colts running back. But oddsmakers are mostly unmoved.

Taylor is +1800 to win MVP. He’s tied for the seventh-best odds, which isn’t bad but it doesn’t really put him in contention yet. His teammate, Daniel Jones, has shorter odds at +1500. To Taylor’s credit, he’s the only non-quarterback with shorter than 100-to-1 odds for MVP. But seeing Jones ahead of him on the MVP odds board is a reminder that only one non-quarterback has won MVP since 2006, and that came back in 2012. Taylor could have one of the greatest seasons a running back has ever had and still have almost no shot at MVP. Ask Saquon Barkley about that.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/nfl-week-9-betting-odds-lines-5-biggest-storylines-including-a-historic-week-for-favorites-141319997.html