Commanders vs. Chiefs Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player props

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The Chiefs are back on prime time for the third time in four weeks and the fourth instance overall this season. It’s probably good that Kansas City’s Week 7 game wasn’t a featured presentation, as televisions across North America would have been turned off early and we all would have gotten some sleep, as the Chiefs dismantled the Raiders 31-0 — to the point where all the stars came out of the game late in the third quarter.

Luckily for those backing the Chiefs at a big number, and many of their stars in the player prop markets, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco and Rashee Rice had done all they needed to do to cash a variety of tickets on their overs.

For the Commanders, Week 7 was a different story, as their QB — Jayden Daniels — also came out early, but with an injury that will keep him out of the Commanders’ second Monday Night Football game in three weeks. Daniels’ exit was the final straw for Washington, already without two of its biggest offensive factors, and the team lost big in Dallas. Luckily for the Commanders, while Daniels is out for this game, they’ll see the return of both Terry McLaurin and Deebo Samuel.

How do all these moving pieces affect a betting market that is rightfully enthralled with the Chiefs? Let’s take a look.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11.5, 48)

Let’s start with the obvious market comparison, as the Chiefs were favored by about the same amount against the Raiders. Las Vegas has one win since Week 1, a home game where they out-gained the lowly Titans by all of one yard. Getting blown out isn’t foreign to the Raiders either, having recently lost by 34 to the Colts, and, interestingly, 17 to the Commanders with Marcus Mariota at the helm.

It’s possible we don’t talk enough about how bad the Raiders are, and while the Chiefs are rightfully the top-rated team in the NFL by the betting market, they’ve seen a significant upgrade to that rating after just one data point — a win over Las Vegas. Plainly-speaking, with Mariota getting the start, if this game was played last week, the Chiefs would be favored by no more than 10 points. It’s likely why this line has crept down from 12.5 to 11.5.

Part of the equation is the tepid interest in backing the Commanders with Mariota at the helm of the offense, but the last time McLaurin and Samuel were on the field together was the Week 3 win over the Raiders.

Defensively, it’s been tough for the Commanders, but their metrics are better than public perception after getting walked down the field repeatedly by the Cowboys, one of the best offensive teams in the league. Filtered for high-leverage plays and blowout game situations, the Commanders’ defense is league-average in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/play) against opponent drop-backs. While they’re slightly below-average against the run, that’s far from the Chiefs’ specialty anyway.

Finally, Kansas City can be had against the run, as only the Bills and Dolphins are worse. While some of it has to do with the threat of Jayden Daniels on the ground, the Commanders lead the NFL in yards per carry, offensive EPA/play on run plays and are second to Carolina in rushing success rate. Mariota’s done a good enough job imitating that element of Daniels’ game with 94 rushing yards on 10 carries.

Mix in what McLaurin and Samuel provide to boost the under-performing pass game, and the Commanders should be able to keep up enough so that the fourth quarter matters this week — and the Chiefs do just enough to secure the win by 7-10 points.

Pick: Commanders +11.5

Player props

Zach Ertz: Under 3.5 receptions (-120)

Ertz has been Daniels’ security blanket during his young career, but that’s been less the case for when Mariota’s had to play.

In games Daniels has started, he’s been targeted at least five times in four of five games this season, and in 12 of 20 total games last season. In Mariota’s two starts, he’s thrown it Ertz’s way three and four times, respectively. Plus, only two teams have allowed fewer receptions per game to opposing tight ends than the Chiefs.

Patrick Mahomes: Over 23.5 pass completions (+100)

One of the concerns for the Commanders’ chances of keeping this game close is the hole in the secondary in the form of Marshon Lattimore, PFF’s 106th-rated cornerback in coverage. He’ll be matched up on an assortment of Chiefs receivers, which means at any given moment Mahomes should be able to connect for an easy completion. Especially, if Lattimore’s repeatedly getting burned has him playing conservatively, a step or two off his guard, worried about getting beat.

Expecting a closer game than the overall market does, there should be pressure for Mahomes to keep throwing later than last week when he only needed three quarters to complete 26 passes.

Brashard Smith: Over 15.5 receiving yards (-118)

Readers over at The Window know that Smith has been something of a pet project of ours over the last few weeks, as Andy Reid and the Chiefs look for more explosiveness out of the backfield. While Smith got a ton of work on the ground in mop-up duty last week, where the rookie running back shines is in the passing game with 3-4 designed plays to get him the ball on the wings.

With at least three receptions in four straight games, Smith hasn’t had fewer than 21 receiving yards in any of those four. With every catch coming off a play with the intent to get him the ball in space, he may clear this total on one catch if the Commanders aren’t ready for something of a secret weapon.

Will Deebo Samuel Sr. find the end zone on Monday Night Football? (AP Photo/Nick Wass)

(ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Anytime touchdown

Deebo Samuel (+220)

When he’s played this season, Samuel’s been involved in a variety of ways — and with great success. Leading the Commanders in targets per game and receptions per game, Samuel’s also received eight carries, and one of his four touchdowns was a rushing score. Having already scored in 66% of his games played as a Commander, even Terry McLaurin’s return shouldn’t hinder Samuel’s chances of getting in the end zone, which have to be better than the implied probability of 31.3% that these odds suggest.

Marcus Mariota (+350)

For his career, Mariota has scored on 5% of all rushing attempts, but with the Commanders that number is up to just over 7%. At +350, an implied probability to score of 22.2%, if Mariota gets four carries from anywhere on the field, those odds are more than fair. Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingbury, after years of working with Kyler Murray in Arizona, doesn’t have to change his offense for Mariota compared to Daniels, while also not having to worry as much about preserving him from hits in short-yardage situations.

Jeremy McNichols (+900)

For a long-shot play on the Commanders, Jeremy McNichols has seen his snap share percentage progress over the course of the season, from in the mid-teens to the mid-20s. Most importantly, he’s developed into the passing-down option at tailback, with five catches on seven targets in the last two games. At 9-1 odds, he’s worth a small flier to score on Monday night.

Xavier Worthy (+150)

Hungry mouths get fed in the Chiefs’ offense. Against the Ravens, four receivers caught touchdowns from Mahomes, but Worthy wasn’t one of them. In the Chiefs’ next home game, Worthy got the first score.

Last week, Rashee Rice got the plays drawn up for him in the red zone to welcome him back to the fold, but Worthy is still a heavily-used weapon. He’s gotten a combined 31 targets and rush attempts in the four games since missing much of September with his opening-week, first-series injury. Expect to see a play specifically designed for him near the goal line.

Kareem Hunt (+250)

Last week’s usage for Kansas City was full of dirty data. Between Rice getting force-fed near the goal line, the Raiders’ lack of will to stand up to Kansas City, and the pulling of Chiefs’ starters early. However, when it comes to who the goal-line running back is, if Pacheco was to take that role, he would have already — and Smith is still very much a work-in-progress.

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Relying on a player whose carries have been trimmed over the last few weeks wouldn’t be advised at the touchdown odds of +175 that he’s carried the last two weeks, coming off a pair of scores in Jacksonville, but with the payout back up to +250, we can come back in, on the chance Hunt gets a goal-line carry or two.

Tyquan Thornton (+825)

Thornton played a ton in Rice and Worthy’s absence, and his snaps have been trimmed since they’ve returned, but the speedster who averages 22 yards per reception still provides one particular set of skills — deep threat.

Given what we know about the Commanders’ secondary, if Mahomes can take a shot over the top of the defense, with all the attention on the bigger names, Thornton might be the one he’s going long to. At better than 8-to-1, he’s our long-shot pick from the Chiefs to score.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/commanders-vs-chiefs-monday-night-football-odds-predictions-best-bets-player-props-135837239.html