Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Heavyweight sluggers Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane will clash TODAY (Sat., Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates for UFC 321.
Aspinall has been nearly flawless in the Octagon, an impressive feat made easier by the fact that his fights only last a minute or two on average. It’s hard to pick up on patterns or recognize major flaws in a man who barely has any fight time. Unfortunately, Aspinall is such a destroyer who Jon Jones opted to retire rather than fight him, leaving an opening for his first-ever undisputed title defense. Gane, the former interim champion, is riding a two-fight win streak over Top 10 contenders if you ignore the fact that his win over Alexander Volkov was an absolute farce. Strange circumstances aside, it’s probably the best fight available among the big men, a match up of two younger standouts where both seemed destined for gold.
Aspinall achieved the goal, while Gane came just shy — perhaps that changes this afternoon? Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:
Aspinall vs. Gane Betting Odds
How Aspinall Wins
Speed is the first word that arises when discussing Aspinall. It always is and always has to be. Despite being large for the division, Aspinall is shockingly fast on his feet and puts together combinations with a quickness his opponents cannot match. Whether sprinting forward with a right hand or a double leg, it’s tough to see Aspinall coming with enough time to react.
In this bout, Aspinall should be presenting Gane with both the threat of the takedown and his power punches. Gane is the better kicker here and will want distance, so Aspinall has to pressure and cut off the fence. Ideally, he’ll mix in some feints to help disguise his pressure. While moving forward, I’d like to see Aspinall leading with jabs and rights to the body, giving Gane the look of the level change. An actual early takedown attempt would be wise as well, if only to establish the threat and help setup his overhand.
Gane’s boxing is ugly. If Aspinall can manage the cage carefully and put Gane in a position where the Frenchman has to trade, he’s at a massive advantage. He can also take a page from Francis Ngannou’s playbook and look to counter kicks with takedowns, which would also help force Gane to trade punches with the English knockout artist.
How Gane Wins
Gane is among the division’s best athletes. Well-conditioned and fast in his own right, Gane is a crafty distance striker who likes to break his opponents down with punishing kicks. He works at a high-rate and can really make his opponents miserable with attritional damage to the legs and liver.
Gane cannot fight scared, but surviving the first round or two is the obvious goal here. We’ve never seen Aspinall compete beyond the six-minute mark, and there’s absolutely zero reason to believe Aspinall would be as dangerous at the start of round three as he is at the beginning of the fight. His style is so reliant on speed, and he’s such a big man — it’s tremendously likely that Aspinall’s performance would drop off significantly if the bout was extended.
Gane, conversely, is proven in the championship rounds, and his kickboxing style is built to take over late. Therefore, his big key here is to avoid making mistakes. He cannot be tempted to trade right hands with Aspinall, nor can he try to flurry his way off the fence. Instead, Gane has to methodically work behind his jab and front kick, perhaps use the clinch to hold Aspinall if he finds himself in the pocket.
The first round will be exceptionally dangerous, but dragging this fight late is definitely his best shot at producing the upset.
Aspinall vs. Gane Prediction
Given just how unproven Aspinall is, these odds feel rather long. Gane appears to be in tremendous physical shape, and the two have beaten a similar class of competition. Gane has a couple losses on his record, sure, but he’s also fought actual champions in Jones and Ngannou, something we cannot yet say about Aspinall (through no fault of his own).
It’s hard to ignore the wrestling though. Gane’s bottom game has looked abysmal on every occasion, and Aspinall can explode through the double leg takedown if he wants to. From top position, it feels likely that a few hard punches allow him to advance position, and it’s a tall task to escape from underneath a 250-pound Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who’s also throwing elbows.
Prediction: Aspinall via submission
UNDISPUTED HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to pay-per-view (PPV) action on Sat., Oct. 25, 2025, with a blockbuster title fight set to headline UFC 321 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. In UFC 321’s PPV main event, Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, defends his title against top-ranked contender, Ciryl Gane, in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC 321’s PPV co-main event features a women’s Strawweight title showdown between Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern. UFC 321 will also showcase a Bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, a Heavyweight bout pitting Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, a Light Heavyweight matchup featuring Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and much more! UFC 321’s start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 12 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 2 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 321 fight card, starting with the ESPN+/Disney+/FX “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 10 a.m. ET, before the main card start time at 2 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC 321: “Aspinall vs. Gane” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
