Mackenzie Dern has gone just 5-4 since she beat Virna Jandiroba the first time neary five years ago. Saturday, they rematch for a title.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern prediction | UFC 321 breakdown
MMA Junkie fight analyst Dan Tom offers his breakdown and prediction for the UFC 320 co-main event.
Dan Tom
MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC UFC 321 co-main event between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern.
Virna Jandiroba UFC 321 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 22-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC
- Height: 5’3″ Age: 37 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 64″
- Last fight: Decision win over Yan Xiaonan (April 12, 2025)
- Camp: Fight House/Team Velame (Brazil)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Good
Supplemental info:
- + Invicta FC strawweight title
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Multiple grappling accolades
- + 1 KO victory
- + 14 submission wins
- + 8 first-round finish
- + Consistent pace and pressure
- + Steadily improving striking skills
- + Deceptive wrestling ability
- ^ Works well against the fence
- + Excellent transitional grappler
- ^ Works well from top or bottom
- +/- 1-0 in career rematches
Mackenzie Dern UFC 321 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 15-5 MMA, 10-5 UFC
- Height: 5’4″ Age: 32 Weight: 115 lbs. Reach: 63″
- Last fight: Submission win over Amanda Ribas (Jan. 11, 2025)
- Camp: Jaxxson House (California)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
- + Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
- + Multiple grappling world championships
- ^ In and out of the gi
- + 8 submission wins
- + 6 first-round finishes
- + Aggressive pace and pressure
- + Steadily improved striking
- ^ Heavy hands and hard leg kicks
- + Favors takedown attempts from the clinch
- + Excellent transitional grappler
- + Active and attacking guard game
- ^ Superb sweeps and submissions
- +/- 1-0 in career rematches
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern point of interest: Striking the second time around
In keeping with the UFC’s recent theme of either impromptu fights or rematches atop their fight cards, the co-main event in Abu Dhabi will feature a rematch between Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern for the strawweight title.
Their first fight, which took place roughly five years ago, was a much closer and more competitive fight than many are giving credit for.
Dern, who generally has more eye-catching qualities than her contemporaries, was able to command the attention of both the judges and commentators alike that night with what seemed to be the more impactful offense.
However, despite clearly winning the first round on the cards, Jandiroba was able to steadily take the steering wheel at the end of the first frame and used the momentum to clearly take the second round with her janky-but-effective striking (landing quality body knees and breaking Dern’s nose wide open with a high kick).
Unfortunately for Jandiroba, said momentum was interrupted by a bad eye poke that allowed Dern back into the fight. And though I technically scored the final frame for Dern, it came down to the literal last stanza, which saw “Cacara” needlessly gamble with a guard pull in the closing seconds that led to a quality hammer fist land from Dern.
Since then, both fighters have continued to steadily improve in all areas.Coming from a background of primarily Brazilian jiu-jitsu, Jandiroba has been playing catch-up in the striking department since stepping on the big stage. Despite it initially being an obvious means to an end, Jandiroba has made clear strides in both her striking technique and understanding of exchanges.
Working behind a steady dose of jabs and feints, Jandiroba wields a deceptively hard right hand that’s effective whether she is coming forward or looking to counter. And when Jandiroba is not offering up her underrated kicks and knees, she has shown that she’s not afraid to mix in crashing elbows to meet her opposition.
Still, Jandiroba will need to be careful when coming forward against a superior power puncher like Dern.
Even though Dern made her name in the grappling world, she has shown no fear in taking on the striking challenges that MMA presents.
A naturally heavy-handed fighter, Dern seems to generate decent power in her right hand, visibly stunning opponents whenever she lands clean. And though Dern’s durability and skills as a grappler may have gotten her through portions of her career thus far, she has steadily been sharpening her striking under the care of Jason Parillo.
A striking coach who has helped former champions like B.J. Penn, Michael Bisping, and Cris Cyborg, Parillo appears to be assisting Dern in working out both the rawness and bad habits that exist in her game.
Nevertheless, Dern’s defense still leaves a lot to be desired, as her old habits of ducking her head and lowering her guard reveal themselves when under heavy fire.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern breakdown: Winning the wrestling
Considering that both fighters are top-level grapplers, winning the wrestling will likely be paramount.
Always sticking to a clear and consistent game plan, there’s no secret about what someone like Jandiroba wants. An accoladed Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, Jandiroba has smartly made strides in her wrestling since transitioning over to MMA.
Jandiroba has demonstrated serviceable reactive shots in the open, but arguably does her best work when chaining takedown attempts along the cage. That said, Jandiroba will still need to be careful about getting stuck in the clinch with someone who is very familiar with the tactics she employs.
Aside from her notable grappling reputation, Dern – albeit in a style of her own – uses similar takedown themes from how she bumps the hips of her foes along the fence to her no-fear attitude when it comes to sacrificial leg entanglements.
Dern has also shown improvements to her level-changing shots in open space recently, so don’t be shocked if she looks to flip the script by grounding Jandiroba early. That said, Jandiroba, akin to her current counterpart, is no slouch off of her back.
Not only is Jandiroba a legitimate threat from full guard, but the Brazilian jiu-jitsu world champion can also channel her inner Demian Maia when it comes to reversing from the half guard. Jandirob is also good about isolating one of her opponent’s legs in transition – something that assists in her control of the positions.
Once Jandiroba can secure herself in the top position, she wastes little time when it comes to working toward the back and funneling her opposition toward her preferred choke points.
Nevertheless, Jandiroba will still need to be on her best behavior given that Dern is still an excellent grappler in transition that is always just one mistake away from being able to close the show in MMA.
Whether she is playing in or out of the gi, Dern has never been afraid to give a little in order to gain a lot. Dern may get a bit sloppy and wild with technique at times, but her athleticism, skill and understanding of the position tend to allow her to operate with impunity.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the older fighter as the favorite, public money has flipped the betting line in favor of the more popular fighter, listing Dern -158 and Jandiroba +128 via FanDuel.
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern prediction, pick
With everyone already writing off Jandiroba in favor of the weird and popular narratives that follow around Dern like a caboose on a train, this contest is giving off some serious Carla Esparza-Rose Namajunas 2 vibes heading into this Saturday.
However, speaking as an analyst who largely ignores the noise and sticks to stylistic and in-cage evidence, I’m not surprised to see Dern favored.
Aside from being the younger fighter who won the first fight, Dern arguably has the higher finishing potential all around. Although Dern is not beyond getting seriously hurt or fatigued in fights, she’s shown that she has the dog in her to dig down deep and continue to push, win or lose.
And if Dern finds herself stuck in a striking contest for five frames, the impact she throws with, coupled with the other optics she commands, has the ability to sway rounds her way – even ones she doesn’t deserve (e.g., her controversial win over Tecia Pennington).
Still, I suspect that Jandiroba was opened as the betting favorite for a reason.
Not only is Jandiroba the superior wrestler (which can be a huge key in these kinds of fights), but she’s clearly the more consistent fighter by a country mile. Couple that with Jandiroba’s own grappling credentials and proven ability in MMA, and I can’t say I’d be shocked to see the former Invicta champion wear out the more accoladed grappler from topside – a tale we’ve seen before in MMA.
Don’t get me wrong: Dern has her reputation for a reason given that her bottom game is one of the most dangerous in the sport with the competency and activity she brings to the table.
That said, I’m not sure that Dern is quite as “game over” territory as people are making her out to be.
Aside from being winless in the grappling world since 2017 (while accruing some notable submission losses in the process), Dern has only been able to submit 5 opponents in her last 15 fights. I don’t mean to nitpick or say that those proportions aren’t impressive, but there’s plenty of fighters – some on this card like Mateusz Rebecki – who hold the same submission ratio over similar or higher levels of opposition than Dern had to go through.
In fact, her most impressive submission win is also the most impressive win on her current run, and that comes against a 12-7 fighter, Amanda Ribas (who is arguably 2-9 in her last 11 fights if her win over Jandiroba was scored correctly as a draw). So, for those following along and doing the alternate MMA math at home, Jandiroba has yet to be thoroughly beaten or dominated in her limited number of losses.
Most fighters have trouble maintaining top positions or the optics that go with it against Dern (despite Dern constantly falling to her back off kicks), but the couple of fighters outside of Jandiroba who were brave enough to do so have shown to have success.
Both Yan Xiaonan and Angela Hill were able to successfully win rounds against Dern by not being afraid to work her from topside or against the fence. Sure, Dern was able to nearly hit her patented hail-marry armbars that bailed her out of a bad spot in her last fight, but I’m not sure those will come as close against someone like Jandiroba.
Not only does Jandiroba specialize in armbars herself, but she arguably has the cleanest and most consistent armbar process in the UFC right now. Add in the fact that Dern still regularly surrenders her back to the fence in fights, and I think that the win conditions favor Jandiroba in this spot.
Dern’s opportunism can upset the best of processes and plans, but I’ll take Jandiroba to win more rounds and hopefully not get robbed in the process given the undeniable influences that will be attached to the fighting grounds this weekend.
Prediction: Jandiroba by decision
Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern start time, how to watch
As the co-main event, Jandiroba and Dern are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 2:45 p.m. ET. The fight airs on pay-per-view via ESPN+.
