Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) will finally get the heavyweight division moving again, now that former 265-pound kingpin, Jon Jones, has vacated his title and retired from mixed martial arts (MMA). Taking over for “Bones” is the same heavyweight who ran him out of town, Tom Aspinall, as the burly Brit makes his first undisputed title defense against two-time division title challenger, Ciryl Gane.
Also fighting for championship gold as part of the UFC 321 pay-per-view (PPV) on Sat. (Oct. 25, 2025) inside Etihad Arena on “Fight Island” in Abu Dhabi, UAE, are strawweight rivals Mackenzie Dern and Virna Jandiroba. Their five-round co-main event rematch will be for the 115-pound strap, recently vacated by Zhang Weili, who moved up a division in pursuit of a second strap next month in the “Big Apple.”
The UFC 321 main card will also feature a bantamweight showdown pitting No. 2-ranked Umar Nurmagomedov against No. 8-ranked Mario Bautista, not long after Alexander Volkov attempts to keep his heavyweight title hopes alive against Brazilian bruiser Jailton Almeida. In addition, light heavyweight “Rocket,” Aleksandar Rakic, returns to throw hands with the rough-and-tumble Azamat Murzakanov.
Who wins and who loses? That’s what we’re here to figure out.
265 lbs.: UFC Heavyweight Champion Tom Aspinall (15-3) vs. Ciryl “Bon Gamin” Gane (13-2)
UFC heavyweight champion Tom Aspinall has eight wins inside the Octagon and seven of them have ended in the opening frame. His one defeat under the UFC banner came by way of exploding knee at UFC London, a loss he later avenged with a 60-second knockout over “Razor” at UFC 304. Sadly, Aspinall has remained out of action for over a year waiting for a Jon Jones fight that never came, thanks to the games “Bones” was playing before abruptly retiring. So is Jones gone for good or coming back at the promotion’s White House card? Honestly, who gives a shit at this point? I could be just fine never writing another WILL HE OR WON’T HE?!? headline about Jones or Conor McGregor for the rest of my career.
Anyway, back to Aspinall, who pretty much steamrolled the competition at 265 pounds and has yet to look vulnerable. At the same time, you can argue the UFC heavyweight division is weaker than it’s ever been, with the absence of Jones, the retirement of Miocic and Cormier, and the departure of Francis Ngannou. It’s also not fair to punish Aspinall for those conditions since he can only play the hand he’s dealt — not that he seems to care about the quality of opposition.
“They are still guys who want it,” Aspinall said at the UFC 321 media day. “Maybe just not the bigger names. Those guys have done enough to do whatever they want. I’m the champion, I fight the No. 1 contender, that’s how champions are supposed to work. You’re the guy, you fight the next guy, prove you’re the best. You rinse and repeat that for as long as possible. I want to create my own path and go down that path. I’m not trying to compare myself to anybody else. You’ve got to remember my whole goal in this sport was to do it full time. That was my goal. I’ve been doing it full time now for a long time. So anything beyond that has been amazing. The fact that I can sit here with the title be number one in the world and the champion and stuff, that’s just great. I don’t want to be compared to anybody. I’m my own person and I want to do my own path in my own career.”
Ciryl Gane already had two chances to win the heavyweight title and failed both times — quite spectacularly in his loss to Jones. In the two fights since getting broken by “Bones,” Gane beat up heavyweight journeyman Serghei Spivac and stole a decision from Alexander Volkov, a performance that may have been impacted by his extended layoff to film some crappy Netflix movie that nobody watched. To be fair, Gane holds a three-inch advantage in reach and has proven to be a dangerous striker when he’s dialed in, so fans can expect a stiff test for Aspinall on the feet — however long the fight stays upright. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Aspinall follow the blueprint laid by Jones (and Ngannou) and take this fight south where Gane, three years older than Aspinall at 35, looked completely helpless against both opponents. Perhaps that’s why Aspinall suggested another quick finish.
“When you look at the ranking, when you look at my career, I think he’s underestimating me,” Gane told Newsweek. “I’m not sure. I think it’s not a good way to do that. I think maybe it’s for the media to create something, but I think when you’re on a high level, you can’t talk like that, man. No sense. If you like to say that, maybe it’s to bring him more confidence, maybe to [scare] me, or maybe just for the social media. If he believes in this with all of his team, that’s not good for him. I think when you take your time and you analyze Tom Aspinall, maybe you can find some stuff like that because he don’t have the experience to go five rounds and because he never fought a guy like me. He’s a really well-rounded fighter with good speed. So, this was an advantage on his former opponent, but it’s going to be a little bit different with me for sure.”
The champ is the heavy betting favorite and the bookies even have the odds for an Aspinall decision win at +1000, which should tell you how confident they are that someone is going down early. I also thought that when Mark Hunt fought Bigfoot Silva at UFC Brisbane and that inexplicably went to a five-round draw, so who the hell knows anymore. This is Aspinall’s fight to lose and I think he travels the path of least resistance, taking Gane down and submitting him within the first two frames.
Prediction: Aspinall def. Gane by submission
115 lbs.: Mackenzie Dern (15-5) vs. Virna Jandiroba (22-3) for vacant strawweight title
More than seven years after her UFC debut, Mackenzie Dern has finally earned her first strawweight title shot. She had a little help from Zhang Weili, who vacated the throne to try her luck at flyweight. I’m not sure I fully understand the strategy of Dern’s pre-fight hype, where the former “little badass” flat-out admitted that she wasn’t in a position to beat Weili for the division title. So even if she wins we should only see her as … second banana? Strange. Dern comes into the UFC 321 co-main event on the strength of consecutive wins over Lupita Godinez and Amanda Ribas; but more importantly, a victory over Virna Jandiroba at UFC 256 back in late 2020. A lot has changed between then and now — for both combatants — and you can argue that Jandiroba has been the more impressive fighter, capturing six of seven with victories over Top 5 contenders Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos. Dern is 5-4 during that same span with losses to both Xiaonan and Lemos.
”I think everyone has different styles, so I see myself similar to Charles [Oliveira], who everyone saw that he had so much potential,” Dern said at the UFC 321 media day. “He was up and down, and he’s been at it for a while, and he has all these submissions, but when they’re a champion, they have a lot of light in them. They don’t just retire after, so I think I’ll be more prepared for what comes at me, winning this title, whoever comes next, what are the next obstacles because of everything I went through. Maybe Tatiana Suarez, who was undefeated and when she did fight for the belt, it was a big difference in the levels and everything like that. I’m really proud to potentially become a champion who can do a little bit of everything. That was my goal.”
Jandiroba’s loss to Dern at UFC 256 was a close one and she is one of the few fighters on the roster who can hold their own against Dern when the fight hits the floor. Jandiroba has victories over Amanda Nunes and Claudia Gadelha on the grappling circuit and has never been finished in her professional MMA career. Working against “Carcara” is the fact that she’s 37 years old and got a late start in cage fighting, thanks to the struggles in her earlier days of finding opponents willing to fight her. I wouldn’t be surprised to see her rematch against Dern play out on the feet just like it did the first time around, since they cancel each other out on the ground. Height and reach are about the same; but honestly, does it even matter? No disrespect to either fighter but when you strike like they do, I’m not sure stats like height and reach are relevant.
“I wouldn’t say I’ve watched [our first fight] recently, but I watched it quite a bit back in the day,” Jandiroba said during the UFC 321 media day. “I think the loss was very important and more important than the fight itself is what I learned from it. I believe now I’m a completely different person and a completely different fighter than I was back then. That is water under the bridge and it doesn’t really make much, it doesn’t reflect much of what you’re going to see on Saturday. The big thing about that fight was just how much I’ve grown from it because of it and how much I learned from it. We’ve been on this journey for a long, long time. And finally on Saturday, I’m going to be able to finally do it. It’s been a long road, but now I’m finally here, and I’m here to take the belt.”
Maybe I’m reading too much into things, but every pre-fight video I see of Dern has her sunbathing by the hotel pool, or getting her nails done at the salon, while Jandiroba is inside the practice ring sparring with her team. The fact that Dern struggled and ultimately lost to Xiaonan and Lemos — while “Carcara” beat them — doesn’t have me feeling very optimistic for this fight. Unless Jandiroba gasses late in the fight, expect Dern to go down on points and lose a competitive (but definitive) decision.
Prediction: Jandiroba def. Dern by unanimous decision
135 lbs.: Umar Nurmagomedov (18-1) vs. Mario Bautista (16-2)
Umar Nurmagomedov makes his first appearance since falling short against Merab Dvalishvili at UFC 311 earlier this year in the “Golden State” in a fight that had him winning two of the five rounds. Unfortunately for Nurmagomedov, “The Machine” kicked into high gear late in the fight and closed the show (and retained the strap), handing the Dagestani standout the first loss of his pro career. Outside of that contest, Nurmagomedov has breezed through the 135-pound ranks, though you can also argue that his only real test was Cory Sandhagen. As far as I’m concerned, a win over “Sandman” and a “Fight of the Night” performance against Dvalishvili is enough to justify Umar’s No. 2 ranking (behind former champion Sean O’Malley). Offensively, Nurmagomedov is a takedown machine, registering five against Sandhagen and another five before that in a victory over Bekzat Almakhan at UFC Vegas 87. He also lands more than four significant strikes per minute at 57-percent accuracy.
That said, don’t expect much time on the feet.
“I don’t think I’m much, much better than him in striking,” Nurmagomedov told reporters during the UFC 321 media day. “I think we have almost same level. He’s very good on striking, movement. He do smart game. He works for scores. He don’t spend a lot of energy on strikes. He doesn’t try to punch hard. I don’t know why he said he’s going to finish me in the first round. I don’t see anybody who he finish even in the last eight fights. I think my wrestling skills and my grappling skills are better. But striking, he’s good.”
Mario Bautista was just another random face in the bantamweight crowd for the first couple of years under the UFC banner, jumping out to a 2-2 start and getting finished by Cory Sandhagen and Trevin Jones. Then out of nowhere, Bautista went on an 8-0 tear and disposed of former champions Jose Aldo and Patchy Mix. The one knock against the Arizonan is that his last four fights have gone to a decision, which is not that surprising when you consider his level of competition. Bautista lands more than six significant strikes per minute with roughly 50-percent accuracy, which sounds great coming into this fight, but he also gave up four takedowns to Da’Mon Blackshear at UFC 292, so you can expect him to spend some time on the mat this weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Bautista doesn’t sound overly concerned.
“I mainly look at the Merab fight, like I said Rounds 3, 4, and 5, Merab put the pressure on him, and he kind of set a blueprint,” Bautista said during the UFC 321 media day. “No one else really wrestled Umar. So, just sticking to your game plan, not worrying where he’s from, what gym, this and that. Go out there and fight your best and stick to your game plan. It’s gonna get down to the mat, there’s going to be moments where he seems to be winning, moments where I come back, vice versa. So, I think that’s what makes this fight exciting. We’re both well rounded, both good in all areas so, it’s going to be very interesting.”
Nurmagomedov is a monster betting favorite at -650, which seems a little high when you consider the toughness of Bautista, but it’s still the right pick. Depending on how much time Nurmagomedov wants to spend on the feet will likely dictate the pace (and entertainment value) of this fight. It’s just too bad a contest with this caliber of talent doesn’t get five rounds to see what’s up.
Prediction: Nurmagomedov def. Bautista by unanimous decision
265 lbs.: Alexander “Drago” Volkov (38-11) vs. Jailton “Malhadinho” Almeida (22-3)
Alexander Volkov insists he has the tools to stop Jailton Almeida’s wrestling and man, I really wanna believe him. Unfortunately, “Drago” was taken down 14 times by Curtis Blaydes — who was outwrestled by Almeida — and will now face a Brazilian wrestling machine who averages nearly seven takedowns per fight. Let’s also not forget that Volkov was taken down twice by non-wrestler Ciryl Gane in his garbage loss to “Bon Gamin” at UFC 310, so it’s pretty much guaranteed that Almeida is getting him to the floor, unless Volkov lands a walk-off, one-hitter quitter to open the fight (think Derrick Lewis vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima). I don’t think anyone would argue that “Drago” is the superior striker in this bout and is probably the superior striker in most heavyweight fights, outside of a few select combatants. Just ask Sergei Pavlovich, who got boxed up and shipped back to Russia after a lopsided loss at UFC Saudi Arabia.
“His style is pretty understandable for me, he doesn’t hide it,” Volkov said at the UFC 321 media day. “He is doing his ground game, jiu-jitsu, wrestling game. I prepared for this. I’m ready. It’s kind of a good opportunity for me to show my ground and wrestling skills with him. He gave me this opportunity to train with my grappling skills, to put this in my camp more, and to show to him … it will be a great opportunity to show to the world that I can wrestle, that I have a good jiu-jitsu, too. I think I have a big chance to knock him out. I feel I will have a lot of opportunities in the fight for this, but it could be whatever happens, happens, so it’s fine. It’s heavyweight, anything can happen, of course, but I think it’ll be a lot of chances to knock him out in a fight.”
Almeida first made a name for himself as part of Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in late 2021 and since then, has racked up an 8-1 record with seven finishes. His one loss came against the aforementioned Blaydes in a fight Almeida was winning; so to Volkov’s point, anything can happen at heavyweight. This fight is extremely important for both combatants because the winner is likely to move on to face the winner of Tom Aspinall vs. Ciryl Gane, who collide for the Brit’s title in the UFC 321 main event. Then again, the promotion might throw a wrench into those plans and grant light heavyweight champion Alex Pereira the title shot he’s been asking for as part of the upcoming UFC White House extravaganza next June. No disrespect to Almeida, but “Poatan” is the much bigger star and “Malhadinho” would even be willing to step aside for the history-making showdown.
“In theory, defeating Volkov — and faith in God I will get that victory — I’m next,” Almeida told MMA Fighting. “In theory, it would be me. But we can’t forget what ‘Poatan’ has done. He has the freedom to jump the line, obviously. He’s the current champion in his division, a guy that sells a lot and has saved the UFC many times. I’m being realistic. He’s way ahead of me. We’ll see what the UFC can offer. Maybe they do Jon Jones and him, and me against Tom Aspinall on the White House [card] as well. And [the winners] face off next. In theory, I would be [next]. But if the UFC opts to put him in front of me, he deserves to jump the line in front of me.”
Volkov is a slight underdog on the moneyline but I don’t think this fight will be as close as the bookies make it sound. Maybe I’m overvaluing Almeida or putting too much stock in his wrestling, but takedowns burn a lot of time on the clock and this is only a three-round fight. Expect a frustrated “Drago” to get mugged-and-slugged for the better part of 15 mins en route to a clean sweep on the judges’ scorecards.
Prediction: Almeida def. Volkov by unanimous decision
205 lbs.: Aleksandar “Rocket” Rakic (14-5) vs. Azamat “The Professional” Murzakanov (15-0)
There was a time in the not-too-distant past when Aleksandar Rakic was ranked in the Top 3 at 205 pounds and one victory away from a light heavyweight title shot. Then came a dreadful three fight-losing streak compounded by a two-year layoff from competition. To be fair, “Rocket” only lost to Jiri Prochazka (twice) and Magomed Ankalaev during that span, so it’s not like he was getting smoked by unranked journeymen, but his recent struggles has booted him from the Top 5 of his division. Rakic is a competent offensive wrestler but prefers to stand-and-bang, which is why the Austrian slugger — who stands 6’4” and sports a 78” reach — holds nine knockouts in 14 wins. A loss this weekend in Abu Dhabi is likely to shoot “Rocket” right out of the Top 10.
Hopefully his jump to a new fight team will prevent that.
”I made a big decision after the Ankalaev fight: I changed teams,” Rakic told MMA Junkie. “I changed my whole team. I have a new head coach, training in Serbia full time. It took me one year exactly now from last fight to digest everything, and to work with the new team and click. So I believe that you will see on Saturday night the full potential of Aleksandar Rakic.”
Azamat Murzakanov is one of the best fighters that nobody cares about or likely even heard of outside of the hardcore fans. That’s because “The Professional,” who scored a UFC contract with a technical knockout victory over Matheus Scheffel on Dana White’s “Contender Series” back in summer 2021, has only registered five fights over the last four years. Beating the brakes off Alonzo Menifield was enough to get Murzakanov ranked in the division Top 10 but he remains undersized for the division, standing at just 5’10” with a 71” reach. That’s a major size disadvantage against Rakic, so it would not surprise me to see the Russian resort to his wrestling. At the same time … if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. Murzakanov has 11 knockouts in 15 wins and has yet to find himself in any kind of trouble inside the cage.
He also doesn’t care if fans know his name.
“When it comes to the UFC, I think still to this day it’s more important to show good fights and to fight well,” Murzakanov said during the UFC 321 media day. “This whole media thing that everyone is after the media hype and stuff, I feel like it comes eventually, it comes with the wins. I think the results and the way you fight are more important than how much you say in the media. I was very happy about the offer when I heard Rakic. Without any hesitation, we accepted the fight immediately. If I didn’t think I had a good way of winning this beautiful fight, I probably wouldn’t be sitting here.”
I can easily envision a scenario where Rakic uses his size and length to keep Murzakanov on his back foot for most of the fight. I can also make an argument that Murzakanov bullies his way inside and lands a devastating shot that grounds “Rocket” for good, something “The Professional” has already done four times in five UFC fights.
Prediction: Murzakanov def. Rakic by knockout
UNDISPUTED HEAVYWEIGHT TITLE FIGHT! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) returns to pay-per-view (PPV) action on Sat., Oct. 25, 2025, with a blockbuster title fight set to headline UFC 321 from inside Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. In UFC 321’s PPV main event, Heavyweight champion, Tom Aspinall, defends his title against top-ranked contender, Ciryl Gane, in a high-stakes, five-round bout. UFC 321’s PPV co-main event features a women’s Strawweight title showdown between Virna Jandiroba vs. Mackenzie Dern. UFC 321 will also showcase a Bantamweight clash between Umar Nurmagomedov vs. Mario Bautista, a Heavyweight bout pitting Alexander Volkov vs. Jailton Almeida, a Light Heavyweight matchup featuring Aleksandar Rakic vs. Azamat Murzakanov, and much more! UFC 321’s start time is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET (“Early Prelims”), 12 p.m. ET (“Prelims” undercard), and 2 p.m. ET (PPV main card).
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC 321 fight card on fight day, starting with the early ESPN+ “Prelims” matches at 10 a.m. ET, followed by the UFC 321 PPV main card start time at 2 p.m. ET on ESPN+ PPV.
