UFC 321 predictions: Is Tom Aspinall about to start a historic heavyweight run?

The once grandest division and title in MMA is back to a more traditional, normal state of affairs with its now-undisputed champion Tom Aspinall set to officially start his reign atop heavyweight. That’s assuming two-time title challenger Ciryl Gane doesn’t make good on his third shot in Abu Dhabi this Saturday, Oct. 25.

Aspinall became the longest-reigning interim champion in promotional history before the previous champion Jon Jones unceremoniously had his retirement announced by UFC CEO Dana White in Baku, Azerbaijan, this past June. The entire saga kept Aspinall sidelined for over a year despite having no health issues. In Gane, he’ll be tasked with a contender he expected to face before his championship status was reached. Also on the card, a new strawweight champion will be crowned in the absence of former titleholder Zhang Weili, moving up to challenge for flyweight gold next month. Therefore, a rematch between ultra-talented submission wizards Virna Jandiroba and Mackenzie Dern will determine the division’s future.

UFC 321 is a wildly top-heavy card, almost entirely carried by the main card. It’s a great main card. There are some minor points of intrigue in the prelims, but they are entirely and rightfully overshadowed by a pay-per-view serving reminiscent of days past.

👑 UFC 321’s lineup Crown grade: B. 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

It’s coming down to the wire for the Uncrowned MMA team. (Joseph Raines, Yahoo Sports.)

ABU DHABI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - OCTOBER 23: (L-R) Opponents Tom Aspinall of England and Ciryl Gane of France face off during the UFC 321 press conference at Etihad Arena on October 23, 2025 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. (Photo by Chris Unger/Zuffa LLC) — Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane will start a new era in the heavyweight division.

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

265 pounds: Tom Aspinall (-375) vs. Ciryl Gane (+290)

Ever since we’ve started to see Aspinall appear anywhere after Jones’ retirement and his undisputed coronation, he’s felt like the guy more than ever.

Aspinall, 32, not only looks and radiates the part, but he’s delivered and proved his talent nearly every single time out since he joined the UFC in 2020. Perhaps best known for his rapid finishing abilities, Aspinall has knocked out the biggest and baddest knockout artists like Sergei Pavlovich. When he’s not touching chins in lightning speed, he’s submitting divisional staples like Alexander Volkov. The guy moves like a middleweight and shocks with his well-rounded game whenever necessary, especially if his power is suppressed early on.

Let’s just say there are many reasons that Aspinall has made believers out of most — myself included. I wasn’t sold on the hype train until probably that aforementioned Volkov win, which came just under four minutes into the fight. That type of performance just doesn’t happen to Volkov. Ever since, Aspinall has only improved.

So let’s talk about Gane, though. It’s been a unique run for the Frenchman, who, before Aspinall, appeared to be the potential next heavyweight ruler of the future. He was on his way to picking apart an injury-hampered Francis Ngannou, in his first undisputed title shot — then the “Predator’s” wrestling instincts kicked in to effectively nullify Gane. Any semblance of the previously seen perfect Gane has vanished in his fights afterward.

Still a supremely talented and dangerous mobile striker, Gane survived the brawling bruiser Tai Tuivasa before Jones dog-walked him in two minutes. To rebound, he delivered a vintage performance against Sergei Spivac, which was followed by a Volkov rematch that the fight world largely believes he should have lost.

Although he’s never been finished by strikes, Gane has had his chin checked and tested, which makes for a scary task at hand against Aspinall. The big point of inconsistency for Gane, however, has clearly been his grappling. And the simple threat of Aspinall, even teasing, could present him with trouble.

Ultimately, another rapid finish shouldn’t be expected for Aspinall in this one. He can’t possibly keep at that pace, right? Regardless, the dude has time in his career wasted for no good reason, and will take out any frustrations on Gane however necessary. This isn’t a good time to be on the other side of a cage with the British badass.

Pick: Aspinall

115 pounds: Virna Jandiroba (+110) vs. Mackenzie Dern (-130)

It somehow does and doesn’t feel like it’s been five years since the first low-key Fight of the Night Jandiroba and Dern put on at UFC 256. A lot has changed for each, and for one more than the other.

I can only assume the oddsmakers looked purely at that first fight, a Dern unanimous decision in a straight-up brawl, to determine the moneylines. Because each’s schedules in the aftermath tell an incredibly blatant tale of success.

Jandiroba is 6-1 in her seven fights post-Dern, winning five straight into this title fight rematch. It’s the stride the Brazilian was always expected to hit upon her arrival in the UFC off her Invicta title reign in 2019. She’s one of the best pure BJJ practitioners in all of MMA, and any chance I get to remind the world that she’s defeated Amanda Nunes (twice) in pure grappling competition, I’ll take. So there you go.

Anyway, Dern may have Jandiroba beat in quantity of competition since their first fight, but not in quality and success. Jandiroba immediately devastated fellow former Invicta champ Kanako Murata with improved striking to rebound from the Dern loss.

She then dropped an uninspired decision to Amanda Ribas before taking out Loopy Godinez, perennial contender Marina Rodriguez and Angela Hill, and one-time title challenger Yan Xiaonan and Amanda Lemos. The last two of that list were undeniably the most impressive, as Jandiroba’s imposing technicality and control were too much to overcome. She plays jiu-jitsu like a humanized version of chess, often succeeding with seemingly little effort. Even from the bottom, sweeps are always a threat. Depending on the matchup, she’ll strike purely to set up her takedowns, which made the turnout of the first Dern clash all the more shocking.

In Dern’s post-Jandiroba stretch, she’s 5-4, holding losses to three of Jandiroba’s victories, Rodriguez, Yan and Lemos. They share wins over the lower-ranked pair of Godinez and Hill, along with a controversial decision over Tecia Pennington. Her submissions of Nina Nunes and Ribas were easily her most impressive, sandwiching her fights in that nine-fight span.

[Yahoo Sports TV is here! Watch live shows and highlights 24/7]

If Dern has improved most in specific areas, it’s been her approach to striking and the ever-elusive ability to seek a takedown, which was her biggest issue for nearly all of her career. On the other hand, Jandiroba has ultimately refined what already made her a terror to face. So the MMA math is weird in this one, but it paints a clear picture. They’ll have two extra rounds to utilize this time around, and there’s no way the fight will be as much of a kickboxing match as the first encounter. Expect some wicked grappling exchanges this time around, with the X-factor being Dern’s aggression for finishes, causing her to lose advantageous positions.

Anything Jandiroba learned from the first fight has been shown more than it has on Dern’s side of the coin, so for that, it will be “Carcara’s” time.

Pick: Jandiroba

135 pounds: Umar Nurmagomedov (-650) vs. Mario Bautista (+475)

Where is the love for Mario Bautista?

OK, that’s an obviously silly question because anyone who watched his Jose Aldo split decision win knows it went home with the “King of Rio” that night. Man, talk about some serious hostility.

Nonetheless, Bautista is an ultra-legit bantamweight, and probably seeing his moneyline skewed purely out of fan hatred and the Nurmagomedov name on the other side. Bautista is on a killer eight-fight win streak, and arguably should be fighting for the title next. If he wins? Shut down all conversations and give him the opportunity. The guy is damn good and can hang with the best of them.

I confidently believe Bautista will do so against the ever-talented Umar Nurmagomedov — but the guy can’t keep getting away with these great wins, right? He must be stopped. Nurmagomedov — coming off a first-career loss — makes for a perfect kryptonite. He’s the next generation Nurmagomedov, grappling as well as any Dagestani sambo wizard, but has the striking to boot. This matchup, in particular, has a Nurmagomedov vs. Cory Sandhagen feel to it. Bautista will hang and defend very well in practically every area; he will just be far too often worried about defense to get off impactful enough offense to win him the fight.

Pick: Nurmagomedov

LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - DECEMBER 07: Alexander Volkov of Russia reacts to the end of the round against Ciryl Gane of France in a heavyweight bout during the UFC 310 event at T-Mobile Arena on December 07, 2024 in Las Vegas, Nevada. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC) — Alexander Volkov arguably should be the man in the main event opposite Tom Aspinall. (Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC)

(Jeff Bottari via Getty Images)

265 pounds: Alexander Volkov (+155) vs. Jailton Almeida (-190)

No sugarcoating to start this one off. How is Jailton Almeida the favorite?

Almeida is an undeniably talented grappler at heavyweight, which can take someone very far, obviously, and especially in this current iteration. However, his competition has still left a lot to be desired, and that Curtis Blaydes loss is pretty unshakeable. Now, I’m not at all saying Volkov and Blaydes are alike — they are not.

With that said, Volkov has been on an under-the-radar savage run since he lost to Aspinall. He’s long been one of the cleanest, most precise strikers at heavyweight. When Volkov uncorks a crisp combination, you feel it through the screen. He’s also just a massive dude compared to most, but especially the potential light heavyweight Almeida.

And yes, Volkov lost by split decision to Gane in his last fight, but again, should not have. He’s improved his overall grappling game significantly on his latest stretch and should be able to thwart Almeida enough to find his target. This guy has fought the best of the best, and at worst, hung in there more often than not.

Pick: Volkov

205: Aleksandar Rakić (-110) vs. Azamat Murzakanov (-110)

Our main card opener bout is another big case of competition levels, because Aleksandar Rakic clears the surging Azamat Murzakanov in that category.

Regardless, Murzkanov has been absolutely nuking his opponents, looking like a guaranteed future top contender — even if this matchup results in a loss. (It won’t.)

Despite his great effort in defeat against Jiri Prochazka, Rakic may have accrued too much wear and tear for these chaotic matchups. Murzakanov is a human pain-cannon, and while he has no ultra-notable wins yet, this opportunity is primed for him to show up. What he’ll be lacking in strike diversity against a still-talented Rakic, he’ll make up for with his concussive power punches.

He is 36, so it may be now or never for Murzakanov. But at the same time, this is light heavyweight we’re talking about.

Pick: Murzakanov

Preliminary Notes

Mizuki Inoue returns after a lengthy layoff on the same card as her old Invicta title rival Jandiroba, so that’s kind of fun. For the numerous readers unaware of that fight, I’ll give you this fun fact: It has the single worst scorecard in MMA history — 49-46 Inoue — and I’m not even slightly kidding. The card was so inexplicably bad that judge Rochelle Montanez literally had to get the fighters mixed up. It’s worth revisiting just for the absurdity of that scorecard. Still just 31, Inoue will have her work cut out for her in the form of rising prospect Jacqueline Amorim, who’s been on a good four-win run.

We talked about Valter Walker when he was going to fight in the epic UFC brother-brother bash vs. Mohammed Usman. Unfortunately, he’s not slated against the other Usman anymore, but we still get to see him try and heel hook a dude at heavyweight, so that’s fun.

Speaking of heavyweight tomfoolery, “Cuddly Bear” Chris Barnett is back to take on Hamdy Abdelwahab. Listen, that fight is … I have no words for several reasons. But it will certainly provide some degree of entertainment.

Lastly, Nathaniel Wood is one I’ll never miss fight and you shouldn’t either.

Quick picks: