Best value bets for UFC 321: Tom Aspinall vs. Cyril Gane

The heavyweight title picture has long felt temporary, with two potentially dominant champs in Francis Ngannou and Jon Jones both moving on, arguably before their time. Both Tom Aspinall and Ciryl Gane have won interim titles, but only Aspinall was wearing the placeholder belt long enough to get promoted to undisputed champ. This is the most appropriate matchup given the current UFC roster … but we’ll always wonder about the matchups that could have been. Let a new era (finally) begin.

Tom Aspinall (-425) vs. Cyril Gane (+310)

(Reed Kuhn)

To put it bluntly, the numbers agree with the line. While Gane has occasionally flexed his striking prowess against one-dimensional opponents, his knockdown rate is actually below average for a heavyweight. And his snappy jab isn’t enough to overcome the flood of superior performance metrics from Aspinall.

Should the incumbent champ decide to stand and trade, he’s as much a threat (if not more so) with his power. But it’s the glaring ground mismatch that offers an easier path to victory. Gane’s below-average takedown defense of 44% is unlikely to hold for long, but might delay the inevitable to allow for a few exchanges of leather. At heavyweight, and given the skill level of the challenger, the moneyline for Aspinall doesn’t offer much value outside of parlays for fun. To get a slightly better return, take under 2.5 rounds, as that would still be more than twice the duration of any Aspinall appearance to date.

The play: Aspinall to win, but low value on the ML. Under 2.5 rounds.

Mackenzie Dern (-175) vs. Virna Jandiroba (+145)

The vacant strawweight championship will be a grappler’s delight, with Jandiroba’s wrestling up against Dern’s submission skills. Dern has looked dominant at times, but also had trouble when testing her striking. Jandiroba isn’t much of a striking threat, and, in fact, will likely be a willing partner on the mat. Dern won a decision in their first meeting five years ago, and Jandiroba is now well beyond the 35-year-old threshold.

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While Jandiroba is more likely to be the one initiating takedowns, Dern’s scrambles and submissions give her a chance to steal rounds, while also using clinch control to nullify the wrestling threat. The numbers lean toward Dern to find ways to win rounds, with the age differential pushing the models to see playable value. This will be Jandiroba’s first five rounder in the UFC, so late-round stamina could also play a factor.

The play: Dern to win.

Jailton Almeida (-225) vs. Alexander Volkov (+185)

Another heavyweight grappling mismatch pits submission ace Jailton Almeida against long-range striker Alexander Volkov. Volkov’s takedown defense is actually above average, but Almeida’s ground game is accompanied by a relentless wrestling attack. He goes for takedowns at 10 times the average UFC pace (once every 15 seconds while standing) and still lands them with normal success.

Once on the ground, Volkov has struggled against dominant grapplers. Almeida will have his chances early for a finish, something he’d be wise to press to avoid gassing and getting caught later in the fight. After all, Almeida’s striking is unquestionably a mere distraction while going for takedowns, as he’s landed just eight total punches from distance in his UFC career.

The plays: Almeida to win, small prop play on Almeida by submission. Fight Does Not Go the Distance for parlays.

Ludovit Klein (-180) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+150)

On the undercard, we could actually see some standing and trading. Ludovit Klein amassed an impressive win streak before falling short to recent lightweight challenger Mateusz Gamrot. Wrestling finally stopped Klein’s win streak, and that is certainly a risk here against Rebecki. But this Mateusz doesn’t have the same wrestling prowess as the other. Plus Klein’s takedown defense of 76% is high, despite plenty of opponents trying desperately not to trade with him.

While it’s standing, both men have power, but Klein owns a huge range advantage, in addition to superior accuracy and defense. Rebecki’s normally high-volume output could end up working against him versus a striker like Klein. There are lots of advantages for the Slovakian Klein, and the price isn’t too steep for a little play.

The play: Klein to win.