Houston Rockets 2025-26 season preview: Does Kevin Durant make this roster a legit title contender?

The 2025-26 NBA season is here! We’re rolling out our previews — examining the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and win projections for all 30 franchises — from the still-rebuilding teams to the true title contenders.

2024-25 finish

Record: 52-30 (second in West, lost to the Warriors in the first round)

Offseason moves

Additions: Kevin Durant, Dorian Finney-Smith, Clint Capela
Subtractions: Jalen Green, Dillon Brooks, Jock Landale

Kevin Durant joins his fifth franchise at age 37. (Stefan Milic/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

The Big Question: Was Houston’s offseason gamble worth it?

When the Rockets acquired Kevin Durant over the summer, the on-paper fit seemed exquisite. Houston’s half-court playoff struggles against an experienced Golden State unit boiled down to a glaring lack of a bona fide go-to scorer, a supreme spacer and an alpha male. Adding Durant (who represents all of the aforementioned qualities) to the group, even at the cost of two starters, was a no-brainer move for general manager Rafael Stone.

Last week’s preseason debut for Durant — an efficient 20-point night on 7-for-10 shooting in 23 minutes — was a reminder of the sheer quality the 14-time All-Star brings any time he laces his sneakers up. It was apparent that this was the first real game Durant was playing with his new teammates, but he linked up well with Alperen Şengün and provided a safety valve for Amen Thompson and Reed Sheppard as they continue to develop chemistry together. Head coach Ime Udoka, notorious for his phlegmatic postgame pressers, almost ran out of complimentary words for the future Hall of Famer.

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“Consistent scoring threat,” Udoka said. “Finisher, closer, however you want to put it. We know what he does, he’s done it his whole career so it will be a benefit for us. That was the driving force [to acquire him].”

But how long can Durant stay healthy? In a perfect world, we would have the luxury of watching our superstars every night, every week, over an 82-game season. That unfortunately hasn’t been the case with Durant, who has played 70 games or more only once in the past five years. It’s a laundry list of injuries over the years — Achilles tear, hamstring strain, MCL sprain in both knees and nagging ankle issues — that forces us to reconcile with the harsh realities of the basketball gods. Just a few weeks ago, the Rockets lost starting point guard Fred VanVleet for the season with a torn right ACL, which threw their playmaking plans into disarray.

Durant is an experienced (and somehow underrated) secondary creator who in theory can work alongside Şengün in the half-court, and Houston is still trying to aid Sheppard’s and Thompson’s growth as distributors as well. Udoka is using the remainder of the preseason as a dress rehearsal for their season opener against the champs, but the various lineup combinations deployed already suggest that Durant may be shouldering more playmaking load than he had anticipated.

For better or for worse, this is the group this front office is married to for the next few years. Houston’s cap sheet is a bit rigid now, thanks to extensions for key members of its core — and Durant and Tari Eason are still unsigned at the time of this writing. There’s also the overarching theme of Houston’s new two-timeline approach, juxtaposed with chasing Oklahoma City (and Denver, to a lesser degree). The move for Durant firmly established the Rockets’ aim to win and develop now, but is that enough to compete with the reigning champs? Oklahoma City’s unprecedented Finals run highlighted the importance of depth and versatility. Houston, with Durant under center, now has the same goals and believes it has comparable talent.

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All things considered, this was the best time to acquire Durant. Houston’s spacing issues were jarring last season, finishing 20th in 3-point attempts, 22nd in 3-point makes and 21st in 3-point percentage — and now has one of the greatest shooters of all time. Defensively, Durant’s length and smarts are enough to maintain Udoka’s aggressive scheme, allowing the 37-year-old to fixate on weaker offensive opposition in man defense and roam in zone. The Rockets’ desperation for a title would see them make this move a hundred times over, no matter the circumstances. Durant’s availability, and his ability to raise Houston’s ceiling, will be the deciding factors in 2025-26.

Best-case scenario

Şengün takes “The Leap.” The Turkish big man has worked tirelessly this summer, working on becoming more comfortable around the perimeter, and gives the Rockets an additional weapon in the half-court. Houston’s next-man up point guard approach isn’t Thompson, Sheppard or even Durant with all due respect. It’s Şengün as a half-court hub. The Nikola Jokić comparisons become less of a faint possibility and more of a reality. The tandem with Durant — along with improvement from Thompson, Smith, Eason, and Sheppard — carries the Rockets all the way to the NBA Finals in June.

If everything falls apart

The Durant adjustment takes longer than expected, causing a negative trickle-down effect. Houston’s half-court woes become exacerbated with Durant attempting to establish himself as the lead dog at the expense of Thompson and Şengün. The Rockets’ lack of a true point guard continues to punish them through December, when they are forced to look for outside help at the cost of a key piece. Their talent is enough to get them to the playoffs, but a swift first-round exit has management reevaluating everything.

Alternatively, Durant missing a significant amount of time puts Houston’s spacing issues back at square one. Opposing teams now have enough film and data on Udoka’s double-big lineups and can use their perceived strength as a glaring weakness.

2025-26 schedule

Season opener: Oct. 21 at Oklahoma City

The Rockets won 52 games last season in a crowded conference, but most of their underlying stats painted them as a traditional sixth or seventh 47-ish wins team. Durant is about as good of a Band-Aid as there is, but at least seven of the eight playoff and play-in teams Houston finished above improved this offseason as well. Getting to 53 or 54 wins, especially without VanVleet, would be a huge accomplishment.