Fantasy Football Week 7 Panic Meter: There doesn't seem to be a light at the end of the Kenneth Walker III-Zach Charbonnet tunnel

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-week-7-panic-meter-there-doesnt-seem-to-be-a-light-at-the-end-of-the-kenneth-walker-iii-zach-charbonnet-tunnel-142900289.html

I hit the trifecta of common hobbies most men pick up when they get into their 30s: Long-distance running, cooking and homebrewing beer. When I’m not cosplaying as a writer, throwing grains, hops and yeast together sounds fun in theory until things (always) go awry. But my long-time friend, who got me into the craft, gave me some simple advice when I started, “Don’t panic. Just wait.”

In some cases, that guidance works for us in fantasy football.

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Justin Herbert found his way back into the top 12 despite the Chargers’ curse continuing to take away from his starting cast. After a rocky start, the Panthers are on a two-game win streak. Some teams need time, or the right opponent, to hit their stride.

However, in a few other cases, six weeks may have made things worse than we saw at the start of the season.

Instead of a Three-Way Mess, It’s a Two-Man Disaster in New England

I couldn’t catch the game live, but every update I received about New England’s offense was about Drake Maye. By all accounts, No. 10 looked like the old No. 12 out there in a Patriots’ jersey.

But I noticed something missing while flipping through the film clips.

Just three of Maye’s 26 attempts went to the RBs. At a meager 12.5% share, Week 6 marked the fifth-lowest rate Maye has looked to his rushers for pass-game support since becoming the starter. Said another way, the same week that fantasy managers hoped either Rhamondre Stevenson or TreVeyon Henderson would see more work with Antonio Gibson down for the season, there were fewer opportunities. Even worse, the trio-turned-duo gave us their worst output of the season against a below-average run defense.

Yards per Carry: 3.9 (Weeks 1-5), 2.0 (Week 6)
Rushing Success Rate: 41.1%, 31.8%
Forced Missed Tackle Rate: 16.8%, 9.1%

I referenced yards per carry as the running game should complement the passing attack. However, with neither RB able to gain any ground, Maye averaged more yards to the sticks in obvious passing situations against the Saints than at any point this season (8.1 yards). Luckily, it didn’t matter. Regardless, even with the lack of production, there was some optimism that Henderson’s playing time would get a bump with only two in the rotation. Let’s hope Sunday wasn’t a sign of things to come.

Snap Rate: 38% (Weeks 1-5), 29% (Week 6)
Route Share: 38%, 19%
Target Rate: 11%, 8%

Now, to be fair, Henderson did what he could with his chances. He averaged more yards after contact per attempt than Stevenson (2.56 to 1.15). Plus, the rookie was, at worst, serviceable in pass protection. He stepped up to keep Maye clean on his second TD to Kayshon Boutte. Plus, Henderson’s chip block led to a short dump off from Maye before Boutte’s first score. Stevenson’s command over the backfield (71% snap rate, 54% of the carries) continues to indicate the rookie is still acclimating to the NFL. However, with another positive matchup in Week 7 (at Titans), Henderson may have another shot to shine.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

Maybe the Jets Should Just Stay At Home

I have no words to describe what some of us watched on Sunday morning.

Take that back. I have about 440 of them. However, I’ll let Justin Fields’ passing chart do some of the heavy lifting.

You’ve probably seen the stats already. To be clear, I’m sorry if you’ve forgotten them and reading this brings them all screaming back to you.

Fields took nine sacks and only completed two passes for a first down. He threw for 45 yards, but lost 55 due to his sacks, netting him -10 on the day. Even his rushing (31 yards) didn’t have an impact, as he only moved the chains once on a designed attempt. HC Aaron Glenn’s apparent insistence on sticking with Fields seems ludicrous on its face. But I do understand what he was trying to say.

Pressure Rate: 47.8% (Weeks 1, 4, and 5), 58.6% (Week 6)
Avg. Time to Pressure: 2.54, 2.41
Sack Rate: 7.8%, 34.6%

The Jets landed in London with a weak blocking unit and the Broncos exacerbated the problem. Per TruMedia, of Fields’ 17 pressures, 11 of them came under 2.5 seconds. Four came in less than two. For a QB who already led the league in average time to throw, forcing him to speed up his processor isn’t a recipe for success. So, yes, Fields had “one true bad game.” However, to counter Glenn’s lukewarm endorsement, none of this is new for the former Bears and Steelers signal caller.

Last year was the first time Fields’ sack rate was under 10.0%. And he only played six games. According to PFF, he’s averaged 3.0 seconds or more to throw every season he’s played a down. Week 6 is emblematic of who Fields is under center. But that’s not my problem. The coaching staff and front office cast this die back in March.

Their continued inability to work around it is the more concerning issue.

Garrett Wilson: 82.8% (Route Rate), 8 (Targets), 45.2% (Air Yard Share)
The Other WRs: 63.2%, 5, 19.5%

Check out some of Fields’ sacks throughout the game. Without a doubt, some are on him. However, in a few cases, he doesn’t have an option. Knowing All-Pro CB Patrick Surtain II would limit production to your WR1 and still not having an answer is certainly a choice.

Mason Taylor was on the rise the previous three weeks — one target on Sunday. Tyler Johnson and Arian Smith were just role players. And now, with Wilson expected to miss time, even if they switched to Tyrod Taylor, the play-calling and personnel would make it hard to trust any Jet for fantasy purposes.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

Kenneth Charbonnet, Zach Walker III… Who Can Tell

Saying this as an analyst who highlighted Kenneth Walker III as a solid mid-round target, we’re a fickle bunch when it comes to RBs. I’m using the “royal we” since we were all kind of talking out of both sides of our mouths throughout the offseason.

“Walker is an explosive, tackle-breaking rusher now in the perfect blocking scheme with OC Klint Kubiak.”

“Zach Charbonnet is the best contingent RB on the board. If Walker misses any time, Charbonnet is an easy top-12 rusher.”

I’m paraphrasing, but these two hype trains have been on a collision course since the summer. It’s like we knew Seattle had two good ball carriers. However, we crowned one the starter and the other the backup before giving the coaching staff a chance to make the final decision. So now, it’s borderline blasphemous to see the lines blurred between the Seattle duo.

Remember, Walker came into the season with a foot injury. Plus, with Charbonnet missing a game with a similar injury, we’ve only had three weeks with two “healthy” and active. However, we might have been wrong about who the workhorse in the backfield was going to be.

Week 4 (Rush Attempt Share): 36% (Charbonnet), 58% (Walker)
Week 5: 45%, 50%
Week 6: 55%, 45%

Charbonnet has taken all but one goal-line carry. Both have earned 5% of the targets. But there’s little doubt about who pops off the screen when they have they have the ball.

Adj. Yards After Contact per Att. (Weeks 4-6): 4.2 (Walker), 2.7 (Charbonnet)
Explosive Rush Rate: 12.8%, 3.0%
Yards per Route Run: 1.07, 0.70

In fairness, Charbonnet has seen more stacked boxes and averaged fewer yards before contact than Walker (2.3 to 0.3). It’s a three-game sample, so there’s some “blocking luck” involved. Also, Charbonnet’s utility as a pass blocker (something we usually point to as a reason for RBs to see more snaps) flies under the radar. Per PFF, Walker’s allowed multiple pressures and a sack, while Charbonnet has, at worst, forced Sam Darnold to speed up his throws. Both have their abilities, which have contributed to the near-even split, but it’s Charbonnet’s availability that’s pushing him into the RB1 role.

Seattle is battling for first place in the NFC West against similarly injured 49ers and Rams squads. Taking the long view regarding Walker would be prudent. It doesn’t mean Walker won’t have value in the future. But given the nature of his ailment, the days of considering him the clear-cut starter might be over.

Panic Meter: Moderate to High

All of Cincinnati’s Hopes Lie with Joe (Flacco)

“I wasn’t embarrassed.”

As a Bengals fan, it was the easiest way for me to sum up Sunday afternoon. Yes, they lost. Again. But it didn’t feel as bad as the three weeks beforehand. Remember, they were 14.5-point dogs (well, maybe just 14 after the trade). The bar for success was underneath Lambeau Field. However, of all the things Joe Flacco had to learn before taking the field, it’s clear he understood one concept.

The “throw it to your good players” concept is a classic but trustworthy approach. Especially if there’s a receiver on your team with arrogant hands like Ja’Marr Chase. Anyway, even with the poor result on the scoreboard, the underlying metrics for the offense support my reaction shortly after the game was over.

Week 3: 15.5 (Yards per Drive), 34.6% (Offensive Success Rate), 58.1% (Pressure Rate)
Week 4: 15.1, 34.9%, 34.5%
Week 5: 28.1, 39.7%, 40.0%
Week 6: 31.7, 50.0%, 27.3%

That last metric, and the number from Week 6, is the one that surprised me the most. They were down one starter heading into the game, and their right tackle was in and out of the lineup with a lower-body injury during the second half. The same protection unit that led to Jake Browning averaging 2.7 sacks per game surrounded one takedown to Flacco. The difference? Time to throw. Flacco was getting the ball out on an average of 2.45 seconds. Meanwhile, Browning sat at 2.79. Accordingly, the former Super Bowl MVP’s ability to throw in rhythm gave us the better versions of the Bengals’ star WR duo.

Chase (Catchable Target Rate): 77% (Weeks 3-5), 83% (Week 6)
Higgins: 47%, 63%

In hindsight, I’ll amend my earlier statement to “throw [catchable passes] to your good players.” Flacco completed 12 passes resulting in a first down; Chase and Higgins accounted for 10 of them. More importantly, assuming Flacco continues to perform at this level (or better), the threat of a potent passing game opens up more for Chase Brown and the rushing attack.

Yes, Brown did play a season-low 53% snap rate, but he did maintain 56% of the carries and all of the goal-line touches. From an opportunity standpoint, I’m not worried about his workload yet. Plus, with the upgrade at QB, Brown faced the second-lowest stacked box rate on early downs (22.2%). His adjusted yards after contact and forced missed tackle rate also increased.

Cincinnati does have the short week to reassess its offense, but Flacco’s presence looks like the tide to lift all boats for the Bengals.

Panic Meter: Moderate

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-week-7-panic-meter-there-doesnt-seem-to-be-a-light-at-the-end-of-the-kenneth-walker-iii-zach-charbonnet-tunnel-142900289.html