Fantasy Football Target Trends from Week 6: Jaxon Smith-Njigba's star turn continues, but a teammate is also on the rise

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-target-trends-from-week-6-jaxon-smith-njigbas-star-turn-continues-but-a-teammate-is-also-on-the-rise-170020482.html

Once a week during the NFL season, I dig into the pass-game data and try to figure out what trends matter at wide receiver, tight end and running back. Let’s open up the spreadsheets and see what we find.

The Diontae Johnson Award watch

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Browns
Jakobi Meyers, WR, Raiders
Stefon Diggs, WR, Patriots

Now that Tetairoa McMilan has broken through at the goal line, the Diontae Johnson Award (all the targets, none of the touchdowns) is up for grabs. Let’s look at the three players currently jostling for position.

Jeudy is probably shipwrecked so long as the Browns don’t have a real quarterback. Dillon Gabriel isn’t the answer, and my hopes aren’t high for Shedeur Sanders, either. Jeudy’s never really been a touchdown source anyway — his breakout last season only had four spikes, and for his career we’re looking at 15 touchdowns in 80 games. His success rate is down to 33.3% this year along with a catch rate of 41.7% — those are both career lows. It’s charitable to call Jeudy a WR4 right now.

At least with Meyers, his efficiency stats are more stable — he’s had a static catch rate and success rate for his three years in Las Vegas. But we’ve seen two games without Brock Bowers, and Meyers has not capitalized — a paltry 10 targets and a return of 8-71-0. He’s been targeted six times in the red zone for the year, with just one completion. This comes off as a Geno Smith problem — while Smith consistently matriculated the ball down the field in his Seattle days, too, the red area was always his bugaboo. Throws and decisions are generally harder where the field gets condensed, and some players always seem to struggle there.

Diggs has been a fantasy winner just once this year, the WR5 smash against Buffalo two weeks ago. Otherwise, he hasn’t cracked the top 20 all season. The Patriots are not going out of their way to feature Diggs — he’s merely holding 21.4% of the targets, and Hunter Henry and Kayshon Boutte have run more routes than Diggs. In fact, Diggs hasn’t played more than two-thirds of the snaps in any game this year.

This type of gradual onboarding made sense in September, when the Patriots perhaps wanted to be cautious with Diggs after last year’s torn ACL, but now that we’re in the middle of October, perhaps the modest usage is more signal than noise. Meandering through his age-31 season, Diggs no longer has an exciting ceiling, even tied to rising star Drake Maye.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks

JSN has the yellow jersey among receivers, the presumed No. 1 overall target now that Puka Nacua is hurt. It’s been a glorious ride — JSN has been the WR7, WR3 and WR3 in three of his last four games.

What’s funny is Smith-Njigba is getting it done despite Seattle having the lowest pass rate in the league, a modest 50.3%. But when the Seahawks look to throw, JSN is always the first read — his market share of 36.1% is easily first in the NFL. When Sam Darnold targets Smith-Njigba this year, the result is a juicy 134.2 rating and 12.4 YPA. Even when opponents know what’s coming, they can’t stop it.

Smith-Njigba was not dominant right away when he turned pro in 2023, but this has all the signs of a classic Year 3 breakout. Enjoy the ride.

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AJ Barner, TE, Seahawks

We just finished the love letter to JSN, the alpha in the Seattle huddle. But Barner is forcing his way into the conversation at tight end. He’s charted in the top 10 at the position three times (including a TE1 finish two weeks ago) and he’s on the field regularly, logging 79.2% of the snaps through six weeks.

We’d like to see him running more routes — he’s at 105 for the year, a modest total. But when Barner is in the pattern, he’s drawing a target 18.1% of the time, a reasonable clip for a tight end. And he’s managed a ridiculous 89.5% catch rate while making a solid 12.1 yards per catch (he was also a consistent downfield threat in college). Perhaps the run-heavy focus on Michigan’s 2023 championship team screened Barner’s upside all along. The arrow points upward.

Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints

He’s still running plenty of routes, that’s not the problem. Kamara has been in the pattern 157 times, putting him third among running backs in that stat. But his target share is down and his efficiency is in the mud — he’s getting just 0.78 yards per route run. The Saints have a 86.2 rating when Kamara is targeted this year — that’s a career low.

The older running backs were remarkably healthy and productive last year, the dominant theme of the fantasy season. This year, it’s been a rerun of Reality Bites. Kamara looks every bit like the 30-year-old veteran he is, a player who’s probably lost a step. His yards per touch are at a career worst, and even his yards per carry are the second-worst of his 10-year career. And one last thing to make Kamara managers nervous: Taysom Hill vultured a one-yard touchdown run last week. When it comes to Kamara shares, I do not want what I haven’t got.

Data from TruMedia, Pro-Football Reference, Rotowire and Fantasy Points was used in the research for this article.

Top-5 target earners at each position from Week 6

Wide Receiver

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Drake London, Falcons	16	10	51.6%
Jerry Jeudy, Browns	13	5	25.5%
Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seahawks	13	8	54.2%
Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals	12	10	30%
George Pickens, Cowbooys	11	9	32.4%

Running Back

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Bijan Robinson, Falcons	8	6	25.8%
Javonte Williams, Cowboys	8	5	23.5%
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers	8	7	21.6%
Kenneth Gainwell, Steelers	6	6	20.7%
Justice Hill, Ravens	6	5	18.2%

Tight End

Player	Targets	Receptions	Target Share
Trey McBride, Cardinals	11	8	28.2%
Dallas Goedert, Eagles	11	9	34.4%
Harold Fannin Jr., Browns	10	7	19.6%
Tyler Warren, Colts	9	6	30%
Oronde Gadsden, Chargers	8	7	21.1%

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-target-trends-from-week-6-jaxon-smith-njigbas-star-turn-continues-but-a-teammate-is-also-on-the-rise-170020482.html