Bears vs. Commanders Monday Night Football odds, predictions: Best bets, player props

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/bears-vs-commanders-monday-night-football-odds-predictions-best-bets-player-props-142939230.html

For as worthy as a legitimately interesting Bills-Falcons game is for Monday Night Football, the storylines for Bears-Commanders are that much more prevalent. It’s the fifth Monday matchup of Heisman trophy winners; the two quarterbacks that went 1-2 in the 2024 NFL Draft.

Even more significant, (and we’d bet it will be revisited on the pregame show) it’s a rematch of the moment from last season, when the Bears stormed back to beat the Commanders … except for one problem: There was too much time left on the clock.

A mismanaged defensive plan by Chicago led to Jayden Daniels’ opportunity to throw his Hail Mary touchdown pass to Noah Brown. Obviously, this flipped the result for bettors in a pick’em game, but it likely cinched tickets for Daniels to win Offensive Rookie of the Year, propelled the Commanders to make the playoffs as a big underdog to do so and sent the Bears into a downward spiral, costing Matt Eberflus his job. That last result led to Ben Johnson becoming the Bears’ head coach — a critical component to the handicap for Monday’s rematch.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (-5.5, 49.5)

Every team has a range that they’re capable of playing to. Handicapping each game is an evaluation of whether that team will perform on the high side, low side, or anywhere within that range. From there, probability takes over in determining a valuable bet.

Every day of preparation matters for all teams, but not all of them have a coach at the helm that can maximize that time, and most don’t have a bigger learning curve than the Caleb Williams-Ben Johnson partnership. Like the Falcons, the Bears haven’t played for 15 days, but they went into the bye week with Williams showing more promise in his most recent pair of games, than in Chicago’s first two (when filtering out turnovers and garbage time):

Week 1 and 2: 30th in EPA/play (24th on dropbacks)
Week 3 and 4: 19th in EPA/play (12th on dropbacks)

Admittedly, the Bears’ most recent opponents — Dallas (30th) and Las Vegas (16th) — linger on the low side of advanced defensive metrics, but so does Washington (19th on opponents’ dropbacks, and 14th overall).

We won’t know how much the Bears’ offense has further improved until the end of Monday night’s game, but two weeks of preparation, with any added knowledge base for Williams, suggests that it should.

When the Commanders have the ball, Daniels won’t find Brown for a Hail Mary, or any type of pass for that matter, as he’s out for this game. More importantly, Terry McLaurin will miss another game, and Deebo Samuel is battling a heel injury sustained last week. It all adds up to the possibility that, despite being at home, Washington will be challenged to play to its expectation — a team rated considerably above league-average. And don’t forget Washington had to travel back from Los Angeles after last Sunday’s win over the Chargers.

Meanwhile, the Bears should come into this game fresh, and with the knowledge that for as bad as last season went for them — and as good as it went for the Commanders after that fateful prayer — the talent on the field was effectively a wash.

Pick: Bears +5.5

Player props

Coke Kmet: Over 18.5 receiving yards (-115)

The tight end is a prominent part of Ben Johnson’s offense, as he used a number of them with the Lions, specifically to the tune of 73 receptions and 836 yards last year with Sam LaPorta and Brock Wright. However, the quarterback has to be looking that way to utilize the tight end.

Kmet’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but Williams targeted him nine times in their last game before the bye week, connecting on three for 46 yards. Much of that was on the strength of a 29-yard reception, but Kmet has been schemed up for a gain of 22 yards or more thrice already. Meanwhile, the Commanders allow the most yards per reception to the opposing tight end, and Kmet has been on the field for over 90 percent of the Bears’ snaps this season.

WR Luther Burden: Longest reception — over 13.5 yards (-115)

The longest reception market is interesting for Kmet, but we usually prefer a burner in those bets, and the Bears’ rookie out of Missouri fits that bill. Williams found Luther Burden alone in the Cowboys’ secondary (a popular place) in Week 3 for a long touchdown, plus another 29-yard reception.

Burden is “boom-or-bust,” with three of his seven receptions coming for zero or negative-yardage, so backing him for one decent chunk is the way to attack his menu. Think of him as the player in the “Jameson Williams” role in Johnson’s ideal version of the Bears offense.

RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt: Under 85.5 rush + receiving yards (-115)

It’s a weird stat for someone who’s in the role as nominal No. 1 tailback, but Croskey-Merritt hasn’t played more than 28 snaps in the five games of his young career. However, he’s coming off a career-high 150 total yards from scrimmage against the Chargers, and, as a result, he’s lined 21 yards higher in this market than in any other game this season — even the last three, without Austin Ekeler.

“Bill” had a 28-yard reception in L.A., but he hasn’t had more than two targets in a game, and his other catches have gone for 11 yards or less, so adding receiving yards into this bet might buy us some room to maneuver.

The Bears’ run defense doesn’t have good metrics, but their schedule has included Ashton Jeanty, Javonte Williams (third in the NFL in rushing) and the Lions’ “Sonic & Knuckles” duo. When facing a more middling run-game — against Minnesota — they held up well.

Anytime touchdown

WR Rome Odunze (+140)

It seems like the hope is that Odunze plays the “Amon-Ra St. Brown” role for Johnson’s Bears, and if that’s the case, the touchdowns are going to come fast and furious. In fact, they already have, as Odunze’s scored in every game this season, with five receiving touchdowns total. Given St. Brown frequents odds-on territory in the anytime touchdown market, betting Odunze at decent plus-money odds seems like still being ahead of the curve.

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WR OIamide Zaccheaus (+425)

Johnson’s known for putting some thought into his play-calling, and even if Zaccheaus — a Commander last season — didn’t already have a star next to his name, his four red zone targets (second only to Odunze this season) indicate that he’s an option through the air or even out of the backfield. A player worth taking at long-shot odds.

TE Zach Ertz (+220)

Daniels’ favorite target is Ertz, which likely infuriates the fantasy football community, given that the 34-year-old is hard to start, given his lack of explosiveness.

Ertz scored in each of the first two games this season, getting 13 targets from Daniels, only to then see just seven from Marcus Mariota in the next two.

Daniels and Ertz connected seven times in 20 games last season, for a hit rate of 35% or implied odds of +186, making +220 a bet worth making that they re-connect in the end zone on Monday night.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/bears-vs-commanders-monday-night-football-odds-predictions-best-bets-player-props-142939230.html