UFC Fight Night 261 predictions: Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot a toss-up in Rio

The UFC is back in Brazil with two former Brazilian champions at the top of the lineup. 

UFC Fight Night 261 (ESPN+) takes place Saturday at Farmasi Arena in Rio de Janeiro.

Get pick results from our 11 editors, writers, radio hosts and videographers, as well as additional analysis, below.

Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell

  • Records: Almeida (15-4 MMA, 2-3 UFC), Aswell (10-3 MMA, 0-1 UFC)
  • Division: Featherweight
  • Rankings: None
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Almeida +130, Aswell -160
  • Junkie pick results: Almeida 9, Aswell 2

Kaan Ofli vs. Ricardo Ramos

  • Records: Ofli (12-4-1 MMA, 0-2 UFC), Ramos (17-7 MMA, 8-6 UFC)
  • Division: Featherweight
  • Rankings: None
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Ofli +160, Ramos -200
  • Junkie pick results: Ramos 11, Ofli 0

Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto

  • Records: Diniz (9-1 MMA, 3-1 UFC), Pinto (10-0 MMA, 1-0 UFC)
  • Division: Heavyweight
  • Rankings: None
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Diniz -145, Pinto +120
  • Junkie pick results: Diniz 7, Pinto 4

Joel Alvarez vs. Vicente Luque

  • Records: Alvarez (22-3 MMA, 7-2 UFC), Luque (23-11-1 MMA, 16-7 UFC)
  • Division: Welterweight
  • Rankings: None
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Alvarez -550, Luque +390
  • Junkie pick results: Alvarez 10, Luque 1

Deiveson Figueiredo vs. Montel Jackson

  • Records: Figueiredo (24-5-1 MMA, 13-5-1 UFC), Jackson (15-2 MMA, 9-2 UFC)
  • Division: Bantamweight
  • Rankings: Figueiredo No. 10, Jackson No. 14
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Figueiredo +260, Jackson 340
  • Junkie pick results: Jackson 6, Figueiredo 5

Charles Oliveira vs. Mateusz Gamrot

  • Records: Oliveira (35-11 MMA, 23-11 UFC), Gamrot (25-3 MMA, 8-3 UFC)
  • Division: Lightweight
  • Rankings: Oliveira No. 4, Gamrot No. 11
  • Odds (as of 10.10.25): Oliveira -110, Gamrot -110
  • Junkie pick results: Oliveira 6, Gamrot 5

Individual staff member picks, main card

Readers 142-85: Oliveira (68%), Figueiredo (59%), Alvarez (72%), Pinto (52%), Ramos (78%), Almeida (59%)

  • Ken Hathaway 148-79: Gamrot, Jackson, Alvarez, Pinto, Ramos, Almeida
  • Mike Bohn 147-80: Gamrot, Jackson, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida
  • Nolan King 144-83: Gamrot, Figueiredo, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida
  • Farah Hannoun 140-87: Gamrot, Figueiredo, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida
  • Abbey Subhan 139-88: Gamrot, Figueiredo, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida
  • Simon Samano 136-91: Oliveira, Figueiredo, Alvarez, Pinto, Ramos, Almeida
  • Matt Erickson 135-92: Oliveira, Jackson, Luque, Pinto, Ramos, Aswell
  • Danny Segura 134-93: Oliveira, Jackson, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Aswell
  • Brian Garcia 132-95: Oliveira, Figueiredo, Alvarez, Pinto, Ramos, Almeida
  • Matthew Wellls 131-96: Oliveira, Jackson, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida
  • George Garcia 124-103: Oliveira, Jackson, Alvarez, Diniz, Ramos, Almeida

Preliminary card picks

Although they don’t count toward the standings, MMA Junkie staff members still pick the fights on the prelims. Here are the results: 

  • Clayton Carpenter vs. Jafel Filho: Carpenter 9, Filho 2
  • Thomas Petersen vs. Vitor Petrino: Petrino 9, Petersen 2
  • Irina Alekseeva vs. Bia Mesquita: Mesquita 11, Alekseeva 0
  • Stewart Nicoll vs. Lucas Rocha: Rocha 8, Nicoll 3
  • Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs. Julia Polastri: Kowalkiewicz 10, Polastri 1
  • Luan Lacerda vs. Saimon Oliveira: Lacerda 9, Oliveira 2
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