Early Week 3 NFL bets to make right now: Back the Cowboys

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Going into Week 3 of the NFL season, let’s take a look at my three biggest takeaways from what we have seen so far, and then break down a pair of best bets for the upcoming slate of games.

First, the Indianapolis Colts are the real deal. They are averaging 31 points per game and currently lead the NFL in expected points added (EPA) per play. Daniel Jones should be the leader in the clubhouse for Comeback Player of the Year, and Shane Steichen should be atop the board for Coach of the Year.

Second, the Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots are two teams that I’m looking to back the over in their games — and they face off in Week 3. The Steelers have the highest paid defense in the NFL, and have also allowed the most points in the league dating back to Week 13 last season. Despite defensive-minded coaches in Mike Tomlin and Mike Vrabel, these offenses can move the ball and the defenses have been getting dominated.

My unfortunate third observation: QB injuries continue to happen at a sky-high rate. Prior to 2022, 64 different players to start a game at QB was the most in a season in NFL history. The 2022 season had 69, 2023 saw 66, 2024 saw 64, and already five starters are injured across the NFL. Joe Burrow, Brock Purdy, JJ McCarthy, Jayden Daniels and Justin Fields are all already out or doubtful to play in Week 3. We are quickly approaching another 60-plus QB start season.

Moving on to Week 3, though, there are two different bets I think are worth placing now early in the week to try and get ahead of the closing line.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Dallas Cowboys at Chicago Bears (-1, 50)

Despite the attention toward Ben Johnson, Caleb Williams and the Chicago’s offense, a large part of the Bears’ early-season woes have been due to injuries to the defense.

Starting defensive back Kyler Gordon remains out with a hamstring injury and Pro Bowl CB Jaylon Johnson is now out indefinitely with a groin injury, after missing Week 1 and only playing a quarter in Week 2. Slot corner Josh Blackwell, who played all 17 games for the Bears last season, is also dealing with a hamstring injury — and while he may be able to play, he missed weeks during preseason and won’t be properly integrated into the new scheme.

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The Lions were able to exploit these coverage gaps and put up 51 points on a weak secondary. I expect the Cowboys to engage in a similar shootout this week. The question is whether Williams will be able to keep up, and I am very willing to bet against that. The game total at 50 makes a lot of sense, but I strongly believe Dallas will be a road favorite at kickoff.

Take the Cowboys now at +1, as the difference between the +1 (-110) and the ML at -105 indicates taking the +1 (-110) to be the better value line.

Bet: Cowboys +1 (-110)

New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5, 41.5)

This handicap is based on understanding early line movement and key numbers; a market play more than a football play.

In NFL betting, 41 and 40 are key numbers for totals. In the last three seasons, 41 is the third-most common totals outcome, 40 is not far behind as the seventh-most common outcome. When you broaden the sample size, both of them increase with 41 becoming the most common and 40 moving to sixth-most common since 2000.

From a market perspective, this opened at 42.5 and has moved a full point down, indicating the under to be the correct direction of the sharp play. If we add in and evaluate the move and how significant it was, the 42 is pretty insignificant. An NFL game landing on 42 is the 16th-most common NFL outcome in the last three years, and broadened to the sample size since 2000, 42 plummets to 34th-most common. At that point we’re talking about least common outcomes, not the most. Understanding the market direction and the asymmetry of the corresponding values can be valuable information in NFL betting.

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To add in a football perspective, both of these teams have been ranked near the bottom of the league in third-down conversion efficiency — showing an ineptitude for staying on the field. Seattle’s rushing game was looking very promising in preseason, only to then average a total of 69.5 rushing yards per game thus far. On the flip side, the New Orleans defense has seven sacks, forced nine punts, is allowing just 130 pass yards per game and showing to be a standout unit despite a weak offense.

The Seahawks defense also has one of the best coaches and play callers in the league in Mike Macdonald, who is known for impressive schemes tailored to each opponent. I expect a standout game plan against the lowly Saints.

Bet: Under 41.5

Honorable mentions: