This year’s Noche UFC festivities might be relatively subdued compared 2024’s Sphere shenanigans, but we’ve still got a whopper of a featherweight bout at the top.
Diego Lopes fell short of becoming champion this past April when he lost a competitive decision to Alexander Volkanovski, but he proved he deserved to be in that position and it felt like that wouldn’t be the last time he challenged for UFC gold. He takes on the white hot Jean Silva in Saturday’s main event, and while he’s unlikely to jump to the front of the line again with a win, stopping Silva from taking his spot will go a long way in the eyes of the matchmakers.
As for Silva, the Fighting Nerds standout is all but guaranteed a meeting with Volkanovski if he puts Lopes away in trademark violent fashion. Last weekend in Paris, Silva’s teammates Caio Borralho and Mauricio Ruffy suffered disappointing losses, so he’ll be triply motivated to finish Lopes and silence the doubters.
Featherweight continues to be one of MMA’s deepest divisions, and one man will set himself further from the pack tonight.
What: Noche UFC
Where: Frost Bank Center in San Antonio
When: Saturday, Sept. 13. The eight-fight preliminary card begins at 3 p.m. ET on ESPN+, followed by a six-fight main card at 6 p.m. ET also on ESPN+.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate standing in the MMA Fighting Global Rankings and Pound-for-Pound Rankings)
Diego Lopes (3) vs. Jean Silva (8)
Diego Lopes had his moments against Alexander Volkanovski, namely a second-round hammer punch that had Volkanovski temporarily down on the mat and people up out of their seats, but in the end, he was just outworked and outfought by an older, cagier fighter. It happens. It wasn’t a fluke, though, and Lopes was made aware of glaring holes in his game that he’s surely worked to fix over the past five months.
One of those issues was a distinct lack of volume, as Lopes perhaps became fixated on landing that one perfect shot. Jean Silva is known more for his precise striking rather than burying his opponents with combinations, but if he senses Lopes is tentative, he’ll be happy to push the action.
Lopes can’t concede ground to Silva if he wants to avoid being picked apart. As cliche as it sounds, if Lopes can channel that Mexican spirit and meet Silva in the center of the octagon, that might be his best chance to win and make a compelling case that he should get another championship opportunity sooner rather than later.
I see Lopes as a major step up in competition for Silva, a bonafide star without question, so I’m leaning towards Lopes to gut out some tough moments and win on the scorecards. Let’s hope for him that’s the case because another year or two in the UFC and Silva could end up being unstoppable.
Pick: Lopes
Rob Font (13) vs. David Martinez
So this is what we’re doing with Rob Font now, is it?
Back in February, it was then-16-0 Jean Matsumoto who almost took Font’s spot in the top 15, only to lose a narrow split decision. Font was then booked to face 20-year-old Raul Rosas Jr., but Rosas withdrew due to injury, and the UFC decided to give another young gunner the chance to make their name off of Font.
At 27, David Martinez is the oldest and arguably the best of Font’s past three bookings. His movement is advanced for a fighter with barely a dozen pro bouts under his belt and he showed in his UFC debut against Saimon Oliveira that if he locks in, it’s a short night for his opponent.
I’m just not ready to pile dirt on Font yet, even if all the signs are there that eventually his luck will run out and one of these up-and-comers will manage to use him as a stepping stone. Until I see it though, I lean Font by decision.
Pick: Font
Rafa Garcia vs. Jared Gordon
A tight, compact fighter, Rafa Garcia’s game plan is no secret: Box ‘em up and seal the deal with timely takedowns.
That’s a fine strategy that would beat plenty of fighters, but Jared Gordon is too experienced to let Garcia dictate the action so easily. His striking style is similar to Garcia’s, so expect plenty of 50/50 exchanges and near-misses early on. Both men are patient and won’t rush into danger.
Gordon’s hands have been sharp lately and as long as he keeps this on the feet, he’ll have the advantage in the long run. Garcia is a willing dance partner and his ground game will give Gordon fits if the fight goes there, but I’m confident Gordon stays standing and wins a striking battle.
Pick: Gordon
Kelvin Gastelum vs. Dustin Stoltzfus
How do you even make a prediction for this fight after Kelvin Gastelum missed weight. Again. At middleweight!
Gastelum’s combination of deep cardio, sharp boxing, and high-level wrestling still make him a tough out no matter what happens at the scale. You don’t hang around as long as Gastelum has without having legitimate skills and it’s a shame his inability to get his weight right has cast a shadow over all of his positive attributes. There’s no one to blame but himself.
This looked like a layup for Gastelum as Dustin Stoltzfus hasn’t exactly been a world beater since making his UFC debut in 2020 off of the Contender Series. Stoltzfus has limped along to a 3-6 record and yet he still registers as dangerous, especially if Gastelum doesn’t show him the proper respect. He knows his way around a submission and if he can catch Gastelum sleeping early, a shock first-round finish could be in the cards.
But I’m going with Gastelum because I’m pretty sure he just gamed the system by not even trying to cut off the final pounds and was already rehydrating by the time he stepped to the scale. He’s a better all-around fighter than Stoltzfus, so this is his match to lose.
Pick: Gastelum
Alexander Hernandez vs. Diego Ferreira
I don’t know if Alexander Hernandez has truly turned the corner. But I do know Diego Ferreira is pretty darn old.
In fairness to Ferreira, 40, he hasn’t lost that much of a step up to this point. He hasn’t competed all that often either, so it’s fair to say that he’s not the lightweight contender he once was. Is this version of him still more than handful for Hernandez?
At his best, Ferreira is a free-swinging veteran with a substantial submission game in his back pocket. He’s going to dare Hernandez to brawl with him, a dangerous proposition, but a more intriguing one than chasing the athletic Hernandez for three rounds. Hernandez, meanwhile, should work to keep this on the feet and at range, use plenty of lateral movement, and strike when the iron is hot.
I like his chances. Hernandez by knockout.
Pick: Hernandez
Santiago Luna vs. Quang Le
Rounding out the main card, we have this sleeper bantamweight fight between the undefeated Santiago Luna and Quang Le, who makes his fourth UFC appearance aiming to make it back to the .500 mark. Le showed off some surprising ground skills in his most recent fight, though his strategy made a ton of sense considering he was facing striking specialist Gaston Bolanos.
Against Luna, we might see Le revert back to kickboxing, not a bad plan given his experience advantage. Don’t let Le’s modest pro record fool you, he has an extensive amateur background dating back to 2015 and he’ll look to give the 21-year-old Luna a reality check.
For now, though, Luna has enough raw talent to get by and at 5-foot-9 he cuts an imposing figure in the 135-pound division. He’ll have trouble with Le at first, but snap into shape in the second round when he’ll crack Le with a good shot and put him down for the count.
Pick: Luna
Preliminaries
Dusko Todorovic def. Jose Daniel Medina
Claudio Puelles def. Joaquim Silva
Tatiana Suarez (3, P4P-12) def. Amanda Lemos (5)
Luis Gurule def. Jesus Aguilar
Zachary Reese def. Sedriques Dumas
Alessandro Costa def. Alden Coria
Alice Pereira def. Montserrat Rendon
Daniil Donchenko def. Rodrigo Sezinando
