Noche UFC predictions, odds, full card picks: Can Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva steal the weekend?

It’s time once again for UFC’s annual celebration of Mexican Independence Day with Noche UFC, and this year, the featherweight division occupies the main-event spotlight.

After originally being announced for Mexico City, Noche UFC shifted its location to San Antonio, Texas. Headlining the bout will be one half of the 145-pound division’s latest title tilt, Diego Lopes, who intends to halt the momentum of the surging Brazilian Jean Silva. Two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski has waited patiently since recapturing the featherweight belt against Lopes in April, and the outcome of Noche UFC could play a significant factor in who challenges Volkanovski first to kick off this title reign.

Unfortunately, the third installment of Noche UFC is undeniably the poorest offering of the bunch. Last year’s event was a momentous pay-per-view event inside Las Vegas’ Sphere. Even the inaugural event hosted a title fight. Holding this year’s edition in Mexico would have been most appropriate, but in the end, at least the main event is a high-stakes banger.

👑 Noche UFC’s lineup Crown grade: C. 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Jean Silva has been one of the featherweight division’s most consistent deliverers of violence.

(USA TODAY Sports via Reuters Connect / Reuters)

145 pounds: Diego Lopes (+185) vs. Jean Silva (-225)

It’s hard to put together a matchup that sounds more like guaranteed chaos than Lopes vs. Silva. On one hand, you have the durable and relentless jiu-jitsu ace Lopes, who has drastically improved his striking throughout his UFC run. On the other hand, with Silva, you have a fearless kickboxer with submission abilities of his own, who rabidly walks down opposition like the feral dog he likes to personify.

Silva’s dynamic range of attacks and overall confidence make him an ultra-difficult fighter to pick against. Despite the relatively decent-sized leap in competition Silva is making, Lopes presents a good stylistic matchup for him — Silva is the cleaner, more technical slugger of the two, though make no mistake, Lopes is still a thumper with his punches and carries a decent size advantage.

Lopes has been finished twice in his career, both by strikes, but they came before he evolved into the fighter he is today. I don’t foresee a stoppage for either in this fight, though if it were to come, I like Lopes’ chances better, thanks to his five-round experience and unwillingness to die. Even in his clear loss to Volkanovski, he never went away and pressed the action until the very end. If (and when) Lopes learns from that fight, he’ll only become better.

Silva simply has the hot hand right now, regardless of the latest setbacks of his Fighting Nerds teammates. Expect a five-round war that ultimately sees “Lord” land the more effective, damaging blows at a higher frequency.

Pick: Silva

135 pounds: Rob Font (-135) vs. David Martinez (+200)

At 38 years old, perennial top-10 contender Rob Font has very comfortably fallen into the bantamweight gatekeeper role. Even though Mexican prospect David Martinez wasn’t Font’s original opponent, Martinez was nonetheless slated to collide with another young rising star in Raul Rosas Jr., so it’s clear the UFC likes what it sees in him. This comes after Font turned back the impressive Brazilian, Jean Matsumoto.

Font still has plenty left to give, especially against the division’s younger crop of talent. It’s no secret that the Bostonian can box an opponent’s face off at will if they don’t know how to close the distance and smother him. Always willing to throw down, Martinez doesn’t appear likely to fight smart in that sense. Entertaining, sure. But if you’re trying to win against Font, we’ve seen how to do it at this point, and that’s not the way.

Martinez’s punching power could certainly rattle Font, but he’ll be landing one for every three strikes returned back at him. Experience has trumped all in Font fights since he started his current win streak.

Pick: Font

155 pounds: Rafa Garcia (+200) vs. Jared Gordon (-250)

Speaking of gatekeepers, Jared Gordon has been a consistent lower-tiered obstacle for the lightweight division.

Everyone remembers Gordon’s robbery against Paddy Pimblett, but he hasn’t let it deter him at age 37. Gordon’s last two wins came in impressive stoppages of Thiago Moises and Mark O. Madsen. Moises, specifically, was a performance I didn’t expect. Gordon possesses much sneakier, tight boxing than he gets credit for, especially when he gets dirty in the clinch, which is where Rafa Garcia will have his hands full.

Garcia has been relatively good at mixing up his approaches to opponents, but Gordon’s solid wrestling should be good enough to negate anything Garcia has to offer, whether he uses it offensively or defensively. Then there’s the aforementioned finishing ability of Gordon, which, at least lately, has only improved.

Pick: Gordon

Jun 7, 2025; Newark, New Jersey, UNITED STATES; Kelvin Gastelum (red gloves) fights Joe Pyfer (blue gloves) during UFC 316 at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images — Kelvin Gastelum is still making main card appearances in 2025.

(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / Reuters)

185 pounds: Kelvin Gastelum (-250) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+200)

This matchup feels like the true dropoff point for Kelvin Gastelum because Dustin Stoltzfus has been nothing more than the finest of middleweight highlight-reel fodder. Additionally, Gastelum has been in high-profile bouts since he arrived in the UFC through “The Ultimate Fighter 17,” and this is the farthest thing from that since he was fighting Brian Melancon or Nico Musoke in 2013-14.

What a pair of shoutouts those are, huh?

[Ed. note: Gastelum also missed weight for this bout by a whopping five pounds on Friday morning.]

Gatekeeper is kind of the theme of this Noche UFC main card, and it’s fair to qualify Gastelum as one in 2025. Technically, he’s still as sharp as he’s ever been. He actually looked great against Joe Pyfer in his last time out, a unanimous decision loss; he just got touched up too many times by Pyfer’s lethal power and couldn’t find his own concussive blow. I still have no idea how he made it to the judges in the one. Gastelum low-key has one of the greatest chins in MMA history.

That’s without even mentioning his wrestling background, which shouldn’t be met with resistance from Stoltzfus if he chooses to take the action to the mat. Even after all the damage — and ups and downs — in Gastelum’s career, I don’t see how he loses this fight.

Pick: Gastelum

135 pounds: Santiago Luna (-135) vs. Quang Le (+110)

Throw the books out the window with this one after Martinez was pulled to replace Rosas, leading Santiago Luna to replace him against Quang Le.

The 21-year-old Luna has been flawless throughout his six-fight pro career and is getting quite the opportunity for his UFC debut. He’s finished all his fights on MMA’s regional scene, dating back to his April 2023 debut. Although that’s only two years after the 33-year-old Le started his own pro career, Le’s amateur run nonetheless began in 2015. The experience gap in this fight is vast, but the overall upside advantage can clearly be placed on Luna.

This fight could be pretty gritty, delivering a lot of wrestle-brawl exchanges. Under the circumstances, it’s just difficult to go against the prepared, more experienced fighter.

Pick: Le

Preliminary Notes

The placement of the Tatiana Suarez vs. Amanda Lemos fight still boggles the mind. A top strawweight contender bout between recent title challengers that’s completely buried on the prelims. With the now-former champion Zhang Weili headed to flyweight, the winner could return to a title fight much quicker than would’ve been anticipated prior. Along with that, numerous unique intricacies can be highlighted between the two. (Trust me, I did a three-hour breakdown on the matchup.)

In the other women’s bout on the card, 19-year-old Alice Pereira makes her UFC debut as the youngest woman to ever compete in the promotion. Regardless of my quick pick for that fight, for the sake of the bantamweight division, the MMA community should hope she can replicate the success of her superstar countryman, Brazil’s Alex Pereira. (And no, they’re not related.)

Quick picks: