Fantasy Football: Key players to watch from every Week 2 game

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-key-players-to-watch-from-every-week-2-game-152934549.html

Two points can determine a unique line or trend.

The aftermath of Week 1 is all about (over)reacting to what we just witnessed. But remember, all we’ve got is one data point. More information is critical. So, for each game, I’ll be watching out for two players in particular, where the second data point will help confirm if what we saw last week was real or not.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets

Keon Coleman won’t catch a deflected pass for a touchdown every week. However, his growth as a receiver was hard to dismiss. The second-year WR more than doubled his target rate as a rookie (11.5% to 24.4%) with a subsequent bump in air yards. But it wasn’t just how often Josh Allen was throwing Coleman the ball; it was when. Allen looked to Coleman (2 targets) and Khalil Shakir (3) the most in obvious passing situations, making Coleman’s expanded role worth monitoring against CB Sauce Gardner.

I could’ve sworn Breece Hall didn’t have any juice after last season. And yet, Hall looked like he had fresh legs against the Steelers. The Jets’ RB1 totaled 26 rushes of 10 yards or more in 2024. He had four in Week 1 alone. To go with his explosiveness, Hall averaged an absurd 4.75 yards per route run on four targets from Justin Fields. With clear control of the backfield (70.4% of the RB carries), Hall’s fifth-round ADP seems cheap after a strong season opener.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

I’m giving Caleb Williams a C- for his first start under HC Ben Johnson. Williams’ ability to create out of structure was a boon for fantasy managers. His 11.8 fantasy points as a rusher ranked sixth-most amongst all starters. However, it covers up his inefficiencies as a passer. Per PFF, even when kept clean, Williams ranked in the bottom five in adjusted completion percentage at a league-average depth of target (7.5). Detroit’s secondary still has its warts, but whether or not Williams can exploit them will be his test for Week 2.

Honestly, I could cheat and say I’m watching everyone from Detroit after the Packers sent them…packing, but I’ll focus on Jahmyr Gibbs. David Montgomery still led the rushing attack (11 carries to 9). Even worse, the Lions’ offensive line didn’t give either a runway. Gibbs fell from averaging 1.0 adjusted yards before contact to zero against Green Bay. The split we expected, but let’s hope OC John Morton can get the offense back to functional in their second divisional matchup.

Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens

Harold Fannin Jr. was one of Cleveland’s biggest surprises against the Bengals. The rookie TE earned more targets (9) than veteran David Njoku (6). Plus, the Canton native ran fewer routes, indicating a pre-planned level of involvement. The Browns had two TEs on the field at the second-highest rate in Week 1, hinting that Fannin’s volume wasn’t a fluke, but most teams abandon their game plans when facing Lamar Jackson.

I’ve got a take. Zay Flowers’ 143-yard performance took away any chance Mark Andrews had for a solid outing. Now, his one target doesn’t help my case. Seeing Charlie Kolar also on the field running routes (9 to Andrews’ 16) is also a concern. However, after seeing the Bengals turn to their TEs for receiving production to beat the Browns’ coverage, Andrews has a shot at redeeming himself in Week 2.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals

I’m assuming one catch for 11 yards won’t be a constant for Brian Thomas Jr. To his credit, the sophomore receiver earned just one fewer target than rookie Travis Hunter. The difference was their depth (and quality). Thomas averaged 13.1 air yards per target while Hunter got the lay-up looks (7.4). So, seeing a 43.0% catchable target rate for the former LSU Tiger isn’t too surprising. But against Cincinnati’s secondary, the volume will pay off with production.

Chase Brown is a bell-cow RB. No other rusher for the Bengals took a tote in Week 1. Samaje Perine only mixed in on passing downs and just two short-yardage snaps. But the continuity of his chokehold on the touches has been the lingering question. However, Brown saw more touches than Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and De’Von Achane. You know, the RBs typically drafted ahead of him, making Week 2’s workload a key point for Brown’s value moving forward.

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins

It’s possible fantasy managers were a little over their skis regarding Stefon Diggs. Sure, Kayshon Boutte and Hunter Henry (8 targets) only saw one more pass than Diggs. But the former Bills’ WR1 only running a route on 69.8% of Drake Maye’s dropbacks is a yellow flag. Likely (hopefully?), the Patriots are easing a 31-year-old WR coming off a near-midseason ACL injury into their offense. Any increased usage against Miami would give us all more confidence in Diggs’ value (both real and fantasy) to the passing game.

I want to believe in Tua Tagovailoa. I want to be able to say (write) that DC Lou Anarumo was the cause for Tagovailoa to slow down from an average 2.3-second time to throw to 2.66. It was the quick trigger from the Dolphins’ QB that enabled their explosive passing game in years past. We saw it collapse when Skylar Thompson took over. If the Patriots fluster Tagovailoa again, we’ll see more clips of the Dolphins’ sideline than them being on the field.

New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

HC Brian Daboll needs to start Jaxson Dart. We can’t keep doing this with Russell Wilson. Wilson ranked 27th in EPA per dropback and 25th in passing aDOT. Said another way, he was one of the least efficient QBs while attempting the fewest difficult throws. While he picked up 44 yards as a runner, each rush was on a busted play more than three seconds past the snap. Even with the Cowboys’ defense ailing, it’s hard to see much fantasy value for the Giants’ passing game outside of Malik Nabers.

Four targets. After all of the offseason hype for George Pickens, the latest Mike Tomlin reject earned just one more attempt than RB Javonte Williams. Jake Ferguson almost matched Pickens in air yard share (15.7% to 10.6%). And it’s not like Dak Prescott wasn’t throwing downfield. Dallas’ QB1 averaged 9.7 air yards per attempt. But the aggression only benefitted CeeDee Lamb (55.0% air yard share, 39.4% target rate). I’m looking to see if an easier defensive matchup brings a deep threat like Pickens into the picture in Week 2.

Los Angeles Rams @ Tennessee Titans

On the bright side, the “concentrated offense” narrative that fueled Davante Adams’ early-round ADP panned out in Week 1. Adams and Puka Nacua combined for 67.9% of Matthew Stafford’s pass attempts. Adams even had 30.6% of the air yards. However, his role on the perimeter (with a 21.2% slot rate) against the Texans was the tougher of the two assignments, as Nacua went over the century mark with the primary inside role. I’m looking to see if the pre-snap alignments shift for both WRs or if Adams can take advantage of the Titans’ pass coverage.

Fantasy managers who drafted Calvin Ridley likely took a look at his Week 1 opponent and adjusted their expectations. Tennessee’s WR1 had to face Denver’s CB1 and reigning DPoY, Pat Surtain. So, a 27-yard outing isn’t much of a shock. But a 32.0% target share is encouraging. A 75.0% catchable target rate is even better after spending last year at 65.0% with Will Levis. So if we’re getting the same (or more) volume with higher quality looks, Ridley’s fantasy totals should come up against a softer defense.

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m panicking over Kenneth Walker III’s usage. He (technically) started the game, but Zach Charbonnet outdid him across every volumetric and efficiency metric. There was no question about who was the better runner between the two. Walker may have lingering issues from his offseason foot injury, but at best, we’re likely looking at a two-man committee moving forward.

Pittsburgh did draft Kaleb Johnson to play RB for them, right? He was a Day 2 pick if memory serves. And yet, we saw more of Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell than the Steelers’ rookie. Johnson’s first touch came in the first quarter…as a kick-off returner. He didn’t see the field as a rusher until the third quarter. His lone carry went for -2 yards. At minimum, a larger piece of the pie would be a welcome change for Johnson in Week 2.

San Francisco 49ers @ New Orleans Saints

OK, I’ll cheat for this one. I’m looking to see which healthy players will be on the field for San Francisco in Week 2. Brock Purdy has turf toe and is out. George Kittle is on IR. Jauan Jennings couldn’t lift his arm after sustaining a shoulder injury. Ironically, Christian McCaffrey came out of the game with fewer questions than entering it. With Mac Jones to start in place of Purdy, how HC Kyle Shanahan will deploy his remaining troops will be fascinating.

Having Spencer Rattler attempt 46 passes in a game is certainly a choice. But the extra passing volume was a boon for Juwan Johnson. Sunday was Johnson’s third game with double-digit looks and his third-best outing as a receiver (76 yards). However, his gain might have been Alvin Kamara’s loss. The pass-catching RB only had two looks. If this shift in target distribution persists, Johnson should be a streaming target or bench stash moving forward.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals

I’m not sure which Bryce Young I should believe. I watched one version of Young go from the bench to serviceable passing metrics in 2024. He still posted bottom-10 numbers in EPA per dropback and passing success rate, but his improvement was evident. It all fell apart in Week 1. Young had the seventh-lowest adjusted completion rate, struggled to connect with his WR1, and managed just eight first downs. Any return to what he was in the back-half of last season would give us hope not just for Young, but for Tetairoa McMillan, too.

I was hoping to see more out of Marvin Harrison Jr. in Week 1. Sure, he was the team’s WR1 (notice I said WR1, since Trey McBride got three more looks like Harrison). Yes, the former Buckeye scored a TD on a quick in-breaker. But Harrison still primarily operated on the boundary. His 22.2% slot rate is only a marginal increase from ’24 (20.8%) with only a slight drop in his target depth (13.5 air yards to 12.7). If fantasy gamers expect to see more consistent fantasy point totals for Harrison, let’s hope we see a shift in his pre-snap alignment in Week 2.

Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Maybe it was just Week 1 jitters for Bo Nix. At least his rushing was still there, though. Nix’s 12.2% designed rushing rate was a bump from ’24 (6.3%), and his 18 yards on the ground are in line with last year’s average (25.3). But his checkdowns weren’t as effective. HC Sean Payton called play-action concepts at a similar rate (32.7%), but Nix couldn’t get on the same page as his pass-catchers. And against a Colts’ secondary that stymied the Dolphins, how Nix handles coverages and pressure will be key for how we view him in his second year.

Tyler Warren’s emergence may have ruined my Josh Downs call from last week. I noted Downs had one of the best matchups against the Dolphins’ interior coverage. And then he turned in a 3-12-0 stat line. However, a quick look at his underlying metrics highlights why. Downs only ran a route on 51.5% of Daniel Jones’ dropbacks. Plus, the slot man plays in the same area as the bigger and faster option, Warren (5.2 air yards per target to 4.3). I’m already skeptical that Jones can maintain his Week 1 performance under center, making Downs’ utility as a fantasy asset all the more difficult to project.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

I’m not worried about A.J. Brown. Let’s set aside the fact that he was working through a hamstring injury just a few weeks ago. Dallas’ defense knew how to handle the Eagles’ WR1. Nearly every target was a well-coordinated handoff between Cowboys’ defenders or an additional CB in coverage. Quentin Johnston just worked the Kansas City Chiefs’ defense for two touchdowns. I’m expecting to see Brown in the end zone at least once this weekend.

I saw Hollywood Brown with 16 targets in a game and immediately tossed it aside as an outlier. I mean, Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have many other healthy options. But after a season marred by injury and misfires between the QB and WR, a high-volume connection seems unlikely to continue. But Brown’s 6.3-yard aDOT and 51.9% slot rate indicate Brown has the “Rashee Rice” role. And with Xavier Worthy limited at best, Brown should still be the WR1 for Kansas City until we learn otherwise.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

We all saw it. Kyle Pitts was an active and productive participant in the Falcons’ passing game. No, it doesn’t matter that Drake London left the game in the fourth quarter because of a shoulder injury. Darnell Mooney sitting out the season opener shouldn’t tarnish the moment. Pitts led the team in first downs and had the second-most looks. But in all seriousness, with “Q-tags” next to both London and Mooney, a Pitts’ repeat performance is in the range of outcomes for Week 2.

I’m calling it now. Jordan Mason will be a top-12 RB this weekend. His rushing share dwarfed Aaron Jones’ (65.2% to 34.8%) with more forced missed tackles and explosive runs. Additionally, the former 49er also contributed to the passing game during J.J. McCarthy’s first start. With the Falcons’ run defense ranking in the bottom 10 in adjusted yards before contact allowed, Mason can take advantage of the runway for longer runs and a score or two this weekend.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Houston Texans

I want to see if Baker Mayfield will lean on Emeka Egbuka even more after the magic the two put on display in Week 1. The rookie split the WR2 role with veteran Sterling Shepard, with both earning six targets. Shepard even had more air yards. However, after putting the Bucs in the lead, I’d expect a closer split between Mike Evans and Egbuka in Week 2.

C.J. Stroud. Joe Burrow. QBs with front offices that refuse to get them offensive line help. Stroud ended 2024 with a 37.9% pressure rate and came into 2025 under duress on 41.2% of his dropbacks. He matched his sack average from last season (3.0). Stroud even went over the number of times he took a hit each week (6.4 in ’24, seven on Sunday). Until we see Stroud have more time to operate, we should drop any expectations for him and Nico Collins in the process.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Quentin Johnston benefiting from more target competition was not something I had on my bingo card. Unsurprisingly, Johnston was the WR3 behind Ladd McConkey (9 targets) and Keenan Allen (10). But Johnston still got a quarter of the air yards, while the Chiefs focused on LA’s primary options. If OC Greg Roman still puts the game on Justin Herbert’s shoulder rather than his RB’s legs (+14.0% pass rate over expectation), folks who picked up Johnston off waivers will be happy to have him as a bench stash.

In all of the discussion regarding the Raiders’ win over Seattle, Ashton Jeanty’s contributions were more of a footnote. He did handle 86.4% of the RB carries. However, of the 20 RBs with 50.0% or more of their backfield totes, Jeanty had the eighth-worst marks in adjusted yards after contact and rushing success rate. To be fair, Las Vegas had the worst run-blocking unit. But seeing Jeanty struggle to overcome the situation sets the bar higher for the rookie in Week 2.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-key-players-to-watch-from-every-week-2-game-152934549.html