Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva prediction, pick: Experience key to Noche UFC main event?

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MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the Noche UFC main event between Diego Lopes and Jean Silva.

Diego Lopes Noche UFC preview

Staple info:

Record: 27-7 MMA, 6-2 UFC
Height: 5’11” Age: 30 Weight: 145 lbs. Reach: 72.5″
Last fight: Decision loss to Alexander Volkanovski (April 12, 2025)
Camp: Brazilian Warriors/Legacy MMA (Mexico)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Multiple grappling accolades
+ 10 KO victories
+ 12 submission wins
+ 15 first-round finishes
+ Knockout power
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved boxing ability
^ Accurate left hook and uppercut returns
+ Hard calf kicks
+ Excellent transitional grappler
^ Dynamic submission game
+ Dangerous off of back
^ Attacks from high-to-low

Jean Silva Noche UFC preview

Staple info:

Record: 16-2 MMA, 5-0 UFC
Age: 28
Height: 5’7″
Weight: 145 lbs.
Reach: 69″
Last fight: Submission win over Bryce Mitchell (April 12, 2025)
Camp: Fighting Nerds (Brazil)
Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai
Risk management: Fair

Supplemental info:

+12 KO victories
+3 submission victories
+10 first-round finishes
+Knockout power
^5 knockdowns in last 5 fights
+Excellent composure and proprioception
^Accurate counters and good eyes in exchanges
+Competent from both stances
^Seems to prefer open-stance affairs
+Solid hook and uppercut returns
+Dangerous knees and elbows
+Strong inside the clinch
^Good takedown defense and frames
+Slick front-choke threats
^Utilizes nicely for getups

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva point of interest: Featherweight fireworks

The main event for Noche – the UFC’s newfound commitment to celebrating Mexican independence – will feature a battle between two Brazilians taking place in Texas.

Not one to say no to a scrap, Diego Lopes has proven that he is down to step up in multiple ways.

Improving his striking skills in recent years, Lopes shows some natural pop in his punches and kicks. Doing a bit better at staying over his feet, Lopes has made measurable strides since his early days of being a jiu-jitsu brawler.

Although Lopes’ aggressive instincts are still clearly intact, the 30-year-old Brazilian displays some solid straight punches that serve him well when coming forward and countering kicks. Whenever matched with fellow orthodox opposition, Lopes will unleash crashing calf kicks that are often set up by his underrated lead hand.

Lopes can also strike potently off of collar ties, but will need to be careful when closing in on a fighter like Jean Silva.

A natural martial artist and counter-fighter in almost every phase, there’s a lot to like about Silva’s game.

Despite primarily fighting from an orthodox stance, Silva is competent from both sides, seemingly preferring open-stance looks. An excellent counter-striker, Silva shows solid eyes in exchanges and the proprioception to make opponents pay in real time.

Whether Silva is parlaying his high guard into slicing elbows or slipping and ripping uppercut-hook returns, the 28-year-old has a penchant for turning defense into offense. And when Silva is feeling in stride, he will unleash everything from flying knees to spinning assaults.

Still, I suspect that we could get a slower start than usual from Silva given the looming takedown threats of Lopes.

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva breakdown: Potential grappling threats

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Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva odds

The oddsmakers and the public are favoring the slightly younger fighter, listing Silva -245 and Lopes +186 via FanDuel.

Diego Lopes vs. Jean Silva prediction, pick

Despite coming in leaning toward the favorite, I ultimately swung toward the underdog after further research and thought.

Although I can completely understand why the initial steam came in on Silva, I believe that it’s fair to say that he’s the slightly less proven product. Sure, Silva is on a solid win streak and has clear skills that are easy to get behind, but I’m not sure how he fares against a fellow durable puncher who also prefers to counter.

It’s easy to (fairly) associate Lopes’ wild fight results with what seem like fast starts, but when you actually go back and watch the tape, you’ll see that Lopes has steadily turned into an aggressive counter-puncher who triggers off of what his opponents give him. So, even though many are justifiably predicting violence from one side or the other, I suspect that this fight actually starts out much slower than some expect.

I think that Lopes’ calf kicks could be a potential difference-maker on the feet, but it could also just encourage Silva to switch stances – something that could serve him well against Lopes.

We haven’t gotten to see much of Lopes in extended exchanges with UFC-level lefties, but the Lobo Gym MMA camp he comes from has traditionally prepared for and done poorly against southpaws in the octagon. Sans that, however, I still believe that more checkboxes are on the Lopes side of the equation.

Sure, Lopes’ disproportionate defensive ability in comparison to his offensive progression could be problematic when it comes to absorbing some nasty Silva counters, but the proud resident of Mexico takes and wears damage as well as a prime B.J. Penn. More importantly, Lopes should have a solid edge on the floor when it comes to both scrambling and transitioning, which is why I suspect the former title challenger has focused so hard on his offensive wrestling this camp (something more jiu-jitsu fighters should do, frankly).

I don’t think anyone can be too confident forecasting this fight regardless of what side you’re on, but I’ll take a stab on the slightly more proven and experienced product at plus money. The official pick is Lopes by split decision.

Prediction: Lopes inside the distance