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Noche UFC: Diego Lopes versus Jean Silva kicks off with the prelims with a fight between Rodrigo Sezinando and Daniil Donchenko in the TUF 33 Finale on Saturday. Check out our UFC odds series for our Sezinando-Donchenko prediction and pick.
Rodrigo Sezinando (8-1) comes into the TUF 33 Finale matchup against Daniil Donchenko riding a strong finish streak. He has won his last three fights by stoppage in the first or second round, including TKOs over Jonathan Ramsay and Dario Sinagoga in 2024. Sezinando’s aggressive striking and finishing power will be key this weekend to becoming the next Ultimate Fighter.
Daniil Donchenko (11-2) enters the TUF 33 Finale matchup against Rodrigo Sezinando riding a strong run of finishes. He recently scored a unanimous decision win over Rustem Kudaybergenov in November 2024 and a submission victory via rear-naked choke over Kanybek Zhanybek Uulu in July 2024. Donchenko’s striking aggression and willingness to lay it all out there will be key this weekend.
Here are the Noche UFC Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
Noche UFC odds: Rodrigo Sezinando-Daniil Donchenko odds
Rodrigo Sezinando: +164
Daniil Donchenko: -198
Over 1.5 rounds: -166
Under 1.5 rounds: +130
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Why Rodrigo Sezinando will win
- Last Fight: (W) Jonathan Ramsay – KO/TKO R1
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 7 (4 KO/TKO/3 SUB)
Rodrigo Sezinando enters the TUF 33 finale against Daniil Donchenko with a clear grappling advantage that could dictate the outcome this weekend at UFC 319. Known for his slick jiu-jitsu and high-level wrestling, Sezinando consistently uses well-timed takedowns and dominant ground control to pressure opponents. His submission threats, particularly rear-naked chokes, highlight his ability to finish fights on the mat.
Sezinando boasts a 78% finish rate with a blend of 4 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions, showing his versatile offensive arsenal. His relentless pace, aggressive takedown attempts, and ability to push the pace could overwhelm Donchenko, a striker who relies on distance and striking versatility. Sezinado’s wrestling and ground-and-pound style will likely nullify Donchenko’s stand-up effectiveness by controlling fight location and pacing.
While Donchenko’s striking is dangerous, Sezinando’s solid takedown defense and feints will help him close the distance and impose his grappling. Luis’ tendency to get drawn into wild exchanges suits Sezinado’s patient, pressure-based strategy. If Sezinado successfully brings the fight to the mat, his superior grappling should secure him either a submission or a dominant decision victory.
Sezinando’s grappling dominance, pressure, and finishing instincts make him the favorite to defeat Donchenko and claim the TUF 33 welterweight title on fight night.
Why Daniil Donchenko will win
- Last Fight: (W) Rustem Kudaybergenov – DEC
- Last 5: 4-1
- Finishes: 9 (7 KO/TKO/2 SUB)
Daniil Donchenko has a strong chance to beat Rodrigo Sezinando at UFC 319 in the TUF 33 finale due to his striking precision, pace, and ability to dictate the fight’s range. As a dynamic striker, Donchenko excels at keeping opponents at bay and controlling distance with effective volume and accuracy.
Donchenko’s striking versatility allows him to adapt mid-fight, exploiting any openings against Sezinando’s grappling-centric approach. His ability to maintain a high pace and mix hard strikes with movement could frustrate Sezinando’s attempts to close distance and implement his ground game.
While Sezinando thrives on grappling and pressure, Donchenko’s striking defense and footwork will be key to avoiding takedowns and neutralizing ground exchanges. By keeping the fight standing, Donchenko maximizes his strengths and limits Sezinado’s opportunities for submissions.
Donchenko’s experience in high-pressure situations and tactical striking mindset give him the tools to outlast and outpoint Sezinando in a competitive matchup. If he can tire Sezinado with volume strikes and defend grappling attempts, Donchenko has pathways to control the fight and earn a decision win.
Donchenko’s striking prowess, fight IQ, and ability to dictate geography position him as the probable winner in a strategic battle at UFC 319’s TUF 33 welterweight finale.
Final Rodrigo Sezinando-Daniil Donchenko prediction & pick
Rodrigo Sezinando vs. Daniil Donchenko at Noche UFC for the TUF 33 welterweight title is expected to be a razor-close battle. Sezinado’s grappling prowess, relentless pace, and ability to control the ground game give him a strong chance to impose his will. His submission skills and pressure fighting can limit Donchenko’s striking opportunities.
Donchenko, a skilled striker with Muay Thai and kickboxing roots, brings diverse and creative stand-up attacks. His volume striking, combined with solid ground-and-pound and takedown attempts, makes him a threat in all areas. He can frustrate Sezinando by keeping the fight standing and forcing exchanges on his terms.
The fight will likely hinge on whether Sezinando can secure takedowns and maintain ground control, neutralizing Donchenko’s striking. Donchenko’s ability to use strikes to prevent takedowns and exploit openings will be critical.
Given the styles, Sezinando is favored to win a decision or submission finish due to his grappling edge and fight control. However, Donchenko’s striking versatility and pressure ensure a highly competitive contest. Fans should expect a strategic, intense battle with Sezinando narrowly edging out Donchenko to become the new TUF 33 welterweight champion at Noche UFC.
Final Rodrigo Sezinando-Daniil Donchenko Prediction & Pick: Rodrigo Sezinando (+164), Over 1.5 Rounds (-166)
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