Fantasy Football: Brian Thomas Jr. needs to bounce back to avoid panic button — 10 storylines that will define Week 2

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-brian-thomas-jr-needs-to-bounce-back-to-avoid-panic-button--10-storylines-that-will-define-week-2-145359553.html

Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through the 10 players and situations. After the chaos of Week 1, how will the trends of fantasy football define the week?

Jameson Williams Starving For Play Action

One of the biggest beneficiaries of play-action in 2024 was Jameson Williams. Ben Johnson was gold for him. The Lions had used play-action more than any team in the NFL, as Williams’ yards per route jumped from a very meager 1.49 to 3.77 on play-action passes.

It’s just Week 1, but there were multiple signs of struggle in the Detroit offense. One red flag in my eyes was new OC John Morton’s play-action rate. With a major struggle in the run game, the Lions ranked 13th in play-action rate against Green Bay.

Detroit now hosts Chicago, a team that played against the highest play-action rate on the week as Minnesota established the run and found great success in the fourth quarter through the air. If Morton fails to replicate the Vikings’ Week 1 offense/Detroit’s 2024 offense, Williams will be the primary victim.

Brian Thomas Jr. vs. Cincinnati

When everything goes wrong over four quarters, it’s not the end of the world. But put up an off-game versus Cincinnati to follow it up? We’d have a problem. Thomas only saw three catchable targets in game one, as Trevor Lawrence seemed to only have off-target throws to his No. 1 wideout and nobody else. With so many changes in Jacksonville, a drop-off can bring deserved concerns to a high fantasy draft pick.

With Travis Hunter leading the team in target share under this new coaching staff, BTJ needs to bounce back in production and volume in Week 2. The new Cincinnati defensive coordinator ran an aggressive one-high safety base defense that will allow Thomas to have the opportunity for big plays down the field. In a more favorable matchup, I fully expect Thomas to have a big-time Game 2. However, if he doesn’t, I think there will be more than enough reasons to hit the panic button.

Titans’ Pending Doom

We knew the Titans offense was in for an uphill battle versus the Broncos defense in Week 1. But man, the offensive line was obliterated. When it reaches this level, volume cannot save your fantasy players. Tony Pollard, for example, turned 18 carries into 7.4 fantasy points. The Tennessee offensive line won’t get a week off as the Rams’ powerful defensive line comes to town on Sunday.

On 14 dropbacks under pressure in Week 1, Cam Ward had only four completions while not attempting a single throw 10+ yards downfield. I don’t trust any Titan this week as Ward adjusts to the NFL level.

Star TE Fluke or Fall-off?

I do my best not to panic in Week 1. However, when a player is set up for success far better than normal, and doesn’t capitalize, one game is 50% of the way to full on panic mode. Mark Andrews, T.J. Hockenson and Travis Kelce. No Isaiah Likely, no Jordan Addison and no Chiefs WRs.

Combined, they recorded nine targets with only one coming in the red zone. Kelce is a 35-year-old TE who has shown multiple signs of regression, while the other two are attempting to bounce back from seasons plagued by injury. If they fail to earn targets in Week 2, I personally would be in sell mode.

Waiver TE for the Week Year

Week 1 waivers have a history of being ultra-important. So, which TE am I buying in for the year? My hope lies with Harold Fannin Jr., “This year’s Isaiah Likely,” as some may say. The main difference comes in why each player received their high Game 1 volume. Likely ran just three fewer routes and received 10 more targets than Andrews in Week 1 last season as Andrews returned from injury. The very next week, Likely only saw half the amount of Andrews’ route share with three targets.

Not only is David Njoku healthy and in a contract year, but Fannin only has a one-game sample size, rather than a two-year stretch of being the clear TE2 as Likely had with the Ravens. And in that one game, Fannin played over 50 snaps with only half lining up as a TE.

With Juwan Johnson on the other hand, there is less of the unknown and more of the proven past as just another waiver TE. This is the 28-year-old’s sixth NFL season. Johnson has only hit 50 receiving yards in 10% of his career games. Banking on a sixth-year breakout, on what is assumed to be one of the worst NFL offenses, is a tough recipe to put my faith in.

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A New Vikings Offense?

Are four top fantasy assets in major trouble for Week 2 and going forward? Last year, the Vikings were third in pass rate over expected behind only the Bengals and Chiefs. But after another quarterback change this offseason, Minnesota came out establishing the run despite playing a Chicago secondary decimated with injuries.

It’s a one-game sample size, yes, but it was a drastic drop from third-highest to second-lowest to start the year. If this were to continue, Justin Jefferson, Hockenson and Aaron Jones are in danger of slipping down once Addison returns.

Chargers and Patriots lead in Pass Rate Over Expected

Sticking with shocking play-call changes, but this time for the positive. The once perceived as run-heavy Patriots and Chargers came out slinging it last weekend. Drake Maye led the NFL in dropbacks as the Patriots’ pass rate over expected ranked the highest in the league. Justin Herbert and the Chargers were right behind as they dropped back 41 times to only 18 run calls.

There are multiple takeaways. With more dropbacks comes more rushing upside via scrambles, especially for quarterbacks like Maye and Herbert. With both already being fringe QB1s in 2024, the volume bump gives their already safer floor a next-level ceiling. Maye is the rare player with talent and high-volume potential that you can get for cheap. A more proven Herbert is another option I’m a fan of at a more expensive price. Look for both teams to continue to trend toward becoming a passing offense in great Week 2 matchups.

Nico Collins will win or lose your matchup on MNF

Nico Collins’ goal for Week 2: be Drake London. The Texans’ Week 2 matchup, Tampa Bay, drew London last week, allowing 15 targets. We’d want Collins to be a bit better in terms of production, but more importantly, I need to see the volume back for my own personal sanity.

The Buccaneers pressured Michael Penix Jr. on over 34% of dropbacks to pair with their heavy zone scheme, a red flag for a Texans offense that is desperate for help on the offensive line.

For not having much competition to beat for targets, Collins’ low first-read target share last week (41st among WRs) raised some deserved concerns. To add to it, Nico’s volume saw a 34% decrease when playing against zone coverage in 2024, which showed in Week 1 as nearly all of his production came during his nine routes against man coverage.

Overall, I am scared. I trust Collins long-term, but if he can’t fight through the tough defensive style on Monday, a lot of fantasy managers will start 0-2.

Is Ricky Pearsall startable under Mac Jones?

Is Mac Jones good? Not necessarily. But the 49ers are still startable in fantasy. From Week 11-18, Jones started in Jacksonville, providing over 40 receiving fantasy points per game (just under 5.0 less than the average). In 15 games without Brock Purdy since 2022, Kyle Shanahan QBs have provided 43.5, almost exactly average. For now, average is okay considering we really only have one WR to rely on.

In Ricky Pearsall’s last three games, he’s posted 17.6 fantasy PPG with a 22% target share. Yes, he had Purdy, but he also had George Kittle to compete for targets with. I would argue the loss of Kittle makes up for the switch at quarterback when it comes to Pearsall’s fantasy production. After all, BTJ scored 15.7 half-PPR PPG in a similar spot alongside Jones last season for the Jaguars.

Caleb Williams’ Scrambling

I’ll label Caleb Williams as the most extreme player of the first week. Lots of good, lots of bad. Regardless, the highs outweigh the negatives when it comes to fantasy football. One of the benefits we saw in Williams’ Game 1 was his rushing ability. His six scrambles were double his 2024 average as he capitalized on his escapability.

There might not be more of a 50/50 start decision in Week 2 than his, and my vote is on a repeat performance. Chicago travels to Detroit to play a defense whose tendencies stayed the same under their new defensive coordinator. Dan Campbell’s Lions ran the most man-to-man coverage in the NFL to start the year. Scrambling QBs are able to run much easier without having defenders’ eyes on them as they do in zone coverage, which can allow Williams to repeat his 11.8 rushing fantasy-point performance in a scramble-friendly spot.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-brian-thomas-jr-needs-to-bounce-back-to-avoid-panic-button--10-storylines-that-will-define-week-2-145359553.html