Survivor pool picks, predictions, advice, strategy: Best Week 2 NFL survivor pool selections

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Guys, we did it! We survived!

Ok, admittedly, you had to go out of your way to get knocked out of a NFL Survivor pool in Week 1 this year.

That’s the thing about this contest format: There are weeks where it’s hard to lose, and others where it’s almost impossible to keep your entry alive. It just depends on how many upsets there are on a given week, and in the season’s opening stanza the Kansas City Chiefs were the biggest favorite to go down … as 3-point favorites.

That was enough to knock out 36 of 18,718 or 0.2% from Circa Sports’ Survivor contest, while 269 entrants lost by using the New England Patriots.

Neither of which were among the five options we deemed worth mulling over last week.

Contest sizes can vary. From the 18,718 entered in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the 15-plus people you compete against at work or the variety of entrants in a Yahoo Football Survival League. Fundamentally, the smaller the field, the better chance your contest ends before Week 18. Your strategy should be tweaked relative to that. However, for our purposes, we have to make the assumption that you’ll need to go the distance to survive the contest.

Week 2 money lines

The favorite, money line and implied win percentage for every favorite in Week 1 (Matt Russell)

How likely is a team to win and you’ll advance? The betting market provides the answer to that each week with the moneyline, which we can convert to an implied win probability (IWP).

The favorite, money line and implied win probability for every favorite in Week 2.

(Matt Russell)

*We’ve also adjusted for the approximately 2.4% sportsbook hold

Market power ratings

It’s not as simple as picking the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use them again. What is simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be trusting the 18th-best team in the NFL. It’s an unnerving thought.

Here’s a list of the betting market’s current top-18 teams, and an estimation of their value to the point spread:

Ravens: 19.2
Bills: 18.9
Eagles: 18.6
Packers: 17.3
Chiefs: 16.7
Chargers: 16.5
Lions: 16.2
Rams: 16.2
Broncos: 15.7
Commanders: 15.7
Bengals: 15.1
Cardinals: 15.1
Vikings: 14.9
Texans: 14.6
Cowboys: 14.3
Bucs: 14.0
Steelers: 14.0
49ers: 13.8

Picking the most likely team to win each week, or the highest available team on this list above, means that you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while every week is technically created equal, trusting a team in Week 2 is a lot different than doing so at some point in December.

Week 2’s top choices

As we look at the best options for Week 2 and onward, we’ll be factoring in the decision tree that will sprout from the pick and previous ones.

Team(s) you’ve most likely used:

Broncos (most popular selection Week 1)

The implied probability derived from the money line should answer any questions about why the favorite should win, but the nuance is found in what you’re giving up by using them now and not later (with a projected point spread projection for those future matchups).

1. Cowboys (69.8%) over Giants

While the game is commonly called “Survivor,” the actual goal is to last until the end. Sometimes, strategically, the most likely team to advance isn’t the best choice (more on this below).

This selection is about in-season timing. The Cowboys need to be used before something goes horribly wrong. Dallas showed they can play with the defending champion Eagles, just so long as QB Dak Prescott is healthy.

As we’ve seen in the past, the moment Prescott has to miss time, the Cowboys immediately fall apart. Meanwhile, the Giants are eventually going to get a boost from QB Jaxson Dart’s insertion into the lineup, but even if he makes his first career start this weekend, it might be behind an offensive line that still is awaiting the return of star left tackle Andrew Thomas.

What you’re giving up:

Week 5 at Jets (DAL -1.5)
Week 6 at Panthers (DAL -3)

Even if Prescott starts 17 games this season, the other games to back the Cowboys as a favorite are sparse, at best. Their remaining home slate includes the Packers, Commanders, Cardinals, Eagles, Chiefs, Vikings and Chargers — all teams considered above average in the betting market. With Prescott, Dallas is a top-18 team, meaning they should be used eventually this season, and this is the best time: Before the perception of the Cowboys among contest entrants catches up to oddsmakers’, who’ve pushed the Cowboys up to 6-point favorites this week.

2. Lions (69.8%) over Bears

Neither Detroit or Chicago impressed in Week 1, to say the least, which is ironic given their coaching connection. Will Ben Johnson be at an advantage, or vice versa, in his return to Detroit on a short week? If the Lions are truly still a contender in the NFC, a return home at 0-1 in the division should produce a play level at whatever the high point of their range is this season. Meanwhile, we didn’t see Johnson’s supposed impact on Caleb Williams come to fruition on Monday night, and that shouldn’t magically click with a couple more days of practice.

What you’re giving up:

Week 4 vs. Browns (DET -8)
Week 12 vs. Giants (DET -8)

This week’s line and the projected spreads above are based on a downgrade in the market to the Lions from getting beat up by the Packers, which means if the Lions win (and do so convincingly), even though your competition survives the week, it means Detroit will have a higher win probability down the road.

3. Ravens (86.5%) over Browns

Whoa! What are the Ravens doing down here?!

The only favorite of over a touchdown this week, they’re most likely to keep you alive this week, but that’s not our lone objective.

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“Obvious” equals “popular” in Survivor, and all the popular pick does is allow you to die a slow death. There will be points over the course of the season where you need to be content with letting a high percentage of the population take the heavy favorite of the week without you.

Remember: Even if they win, they can’t use the Ravens again, giving you an advantage later in the game, assuming there are other matchups that favor Baltimore.

What you’re giving up:

Week 6 vs. Bears (BAL -7.5)
Week 7 at Dolphins (BAL -5.5)
Week 10 vs. Jets (BAL -9.5)
Week 16 vs. Patriots (BAL -8.5)

No, the next best options aren’t likely to match the win probability the Ravens have this week (which is why they’re even our third choice), but gaining the versatility to use the NFL’s top-rated team in the betting market, whenever you’re in a pinch later, is extremely valuable.

4. Cardinals (72.6%) over Panthers

Let’s just get this out there — I think we’re going to see some upsets this Sunday, and the Cardinals might be vulnerable. They were outgained by the Saints in Week 1, but managed to escape New Orleans with a win.

Arizona is only in this mix because of how bad Carolina looked last week, making the Cardinals the least-likely loser of the remaining favorites (including the 49ers who’ve seen their market rating plummet under suspicion of Mac Jones’ involvement this week).

You’ll note the Bills (with a higher money-line win probability) aren’t even on this list, as they have to get up for a road game against a hungry division rival, right after playing in — and winning — what might end up being the game of the year last Sunday night.

What you’re giving up:

Week 5 vs. Titans (ARI -7)
Week 12 vs. Jaguars (ARI -3.5)

There are a couple other chances to take the Cardinals, and passing on them here does allow you to buy some time to trust a notoriously sketchy team. Even Arizona being considered 12th in the NFL by the betting market is unsettling, isn’t it?

Darkhorse: Steelers (57.6%) over Seahawks

If Baltimore is the safe move, and the Cowboys are the strategic move, the Steelers are the calculated risk of the week.

Assuming we have to use 18 teams to make it to the end of the season, Pittsburgh is on that list, just so long as Aaron Rodgers is still healthy and (seemingly) happy. That could turn at any moment.

What you’re giving up:

Week 6 vs. Browns (PIT -6)
Week 15 vs. Dolphins (PIT -4)

This section should really be called “what you’re getting” by taking such a short favorite, since it’s opening up all the options for later in the season listed above. The next time to viably use Pittsburgh is in Week 6, where the other current projected favorites are the Raiders (-4) over the Titans, and the Commanders (-4) over the Bears. Maybe by then, the Browns will have turned to one of their rookie quarterbacks, voluntarily or otherwise.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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