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Long before either player won a major title, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz had already been identified as the rivalry to lead men’s tennis into the post ‘Big Three’ landscape.
An electric night at the US Open three years ago was the first real sign why.
“If this match is the future of men’s tennis, we are in for a great era ahead,” read a tournament tweet after Alcaraz edged a five-set quarter-final thriller that finished at almost 3am local time.
‘Sin-caraz’ was born.
On Sunday, the pair return to Arthur Ashe Stadium to contest this year’s US Open final – the third successive Grand Slam showpiece between them.
“I feel like our rivalry started here playing an amazing match,” said Italian world number one Sinner.
“We are two different players now, with different confidence too. Let’s see what’s coming.”
The embryonic potential of 2022 has developed into the real deal in 2025.
Sinner, 24, and Alcaraz, 22 meeting in another Grand Slam final ensures they will sweep the four majors for the second successive season.
This year, Sinner defended his Australian Open title before bouncing back from a brutal French Open defeat by Alcaraz by taking away his Spanish rival’s crown when they met again at Wimbledon.
In New York, the pair will become the first men’s players in the Open era to contest three Grand Slam finals in the same season.
“The matches they have played have been such a high level,” Sinner’s coach Darren Cahill told ESPN.
“Both guys play a different style, they are trying to push each other and become better tennis players because of the rivalry.”
The case for Sinner
Sinner has been the standout player on the ATP Tour over the past two seasons, winning 110 of his 120 matches (92%) and lifting 10 titles.
Even though he missed three months of this year because of a doping controversy, Sinner could still not be dislodged at the top of the rankings, but defeat on Sunday will see him replaced by Alcaraz.
Most of his victories over the US Open fortnight have been comfortable and served to underline his recent dominance.
The defending champion has dropped only two sets through the six rounds – against Denis Shapovalov in round three and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semi-finals – while seven of his 20 sets have ended 6-1 in his favour.
The only question mark remains about his fitness. Sinner, who was forced to quit the Cincinnati final against Alcaraz through illness, had a stomach issue during Friday’s semi-final – but has been quick to play it down.
Despite these concerns, Alcaraz believes his rival’s physical improvements are the most striking difference since their last Flushing Meadows meeting.
Getty Images“His matches are really demanding physically,” said Alcaraz.
“That he’s able to play at his 100% during two, three or four hours, that’s the biggest improvement he has made in the last years.”
Sinner’s durability allows his supreme technical ability to flourish, but his mentality also enables him to produce mechanical consistency.
The man from the Italian mountains rarely seems to be fazed away from the court, either.
Sinner stayed bullish publicly as the debate raged about the doping case, while he was able to move on quickly from the brutal French Open defeat by Alcaraz.
Less than a month after a loss which would have crushed many, Sinner bounced back at Wimbledon.
“We keep talking about the fact that he’s got really good self-awareness and puts everything into perspective,” Cahill told BBC Sport at Wimbledon.
“He sees the big picture really well and is why he’s able to bounce back so quickly.”
The case for Alcaraz
The difference between the standout pair over the 2024 and 2025 seasons has been marginal – but the gulf over the rest is vast.
Alcaraz has won 114 of his 133 matches (86%) and also claimed 10 titles.
The five-time major champion, however, has a 9-5 advantage in their head-to-head record after Cincinnati and has won six of their past seven meetings.
The one Alcaraz did lose came at Wimbledon, where his malfunctioning serve allowed Sinner to get on top.
Improving this area has been a key target for Alcaraz since – and the work has paid off.
Alcaraz has only twice dropped serve in his six US Open matches so far, putting the Spaniard (98%) slightly ahead of Sinner (95%) at the top of the pile in service games won.
“I feel like he’s serving much better with the better pace, but the percentage is very high all the time,” said Sinner.
“He is much more solid because maybe before there were more ups and downs. Now he’s very consistent.”
Getty ImagesAlcaraz’s ceiling of natural talent is commonly seen as higher than Sinner’s, due to his timing behind artistic shot-making and the fluidity in his movement.
But, as we saw in the Wimbledon final, Alcaraz can dip lower more often.
It was also apparent in a humbling Australian Open quarter-final defeat by 37-year-old Novak Djokovic, who injured his hamstring but managed to frazzle Alcaraz through his wily know-how.
The way which Alcaraz navigated his way past Djokovic in straight sets when they met in Friday’s semi-finals demonstrated his growing maturity.
“I’m just getting to know myself much better, what I need on, off the court,” said Alcaraz.
“The things that I’m doing off the court I think I’m doing really, really well, which help a lot, and to play my best tennis. I think it’s getting better.”
