UFC Paris predictions, odds, full card picks: Is Nassourdine Imavov vs. Caio Borralho winner next in line?

Less than a week after France set the WWE ablaze with its Clash in Paris PLE, the UFC is continuing that momentum this Saturday with its annual September visit to “The City of Lights.”

It’s been a big year for the middleweight division, which most recently saw a new champion be crowned with the coronation of Khamzat Chimaev. UFC Paris’ main event appears to be one of the most blatant (yet unofficial) No. 1 contender fights a division could have, as the No. 2-ranked Nassourdine Imavov gets a hometown showdown against the No. 7-ranked Fighting Nerd product Caio Borralho. A win for either man would give them a near-undeniable case to be the first challenger for the seemingly unbeatable Chimaev. And stylistically, it’s also just an intriguing, high-level clash.

If that five-round serving isn’t enough, France’s own Benoit Saint Denis returns in an all-action co-main event against Borralho’s teammate, rising lightweight contender Mauricio Ruffy.

The top-notch Paris crowd alone is enough to secure a solid grade for any type of combat-related festivities, but UFC also put together a card with solid stakes atop the bill, notable names littered throughout, and plenty of European flair. That’s the recipe for a good day of fisticuffs.

👑 UFC Paris’ lineup Crown grade: B+. 👑

Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Caio Borralho has proven to be much more than just a jiu-jitsu specialist.

(Chris Unger via Getty Images)

185 pounds: Nassourdine Imavov (-135) vs. Caio Borralho (+110)

Ever since Chris Weidman’s title reign ended in 2015, the UFC middleweight division has generally been home to some of the most incredible silliness the sport can provide. Sometimes you’ll watch a fight and be blown away by the skill unfolding, while other times you can’t believe these dudes are getting paid to flail around.

On that note, grappling ace Borralho fought Jared Cannonier stupidly by all accounts back in August 2024 and gave the heavy-handed “Killa Gorilla” the perfect opportunity to steal a win, yet Borralho actually succeeded anyway — he handily out-struck and nearly finished Cannonier without any real use of his mat prowess. Borralho had been a slow burn in the UFC up to that point, but that last performance was easily the most he’s proven himself, despite a strong 7-0 record within the company.

Borralho’s major drawback in the title chase has been his quality of wins, an area where Imavov easily surpasses him. Imavov finished Cannonier, picked apart Roman Dolidze, halted Brendan Allen’s impressive winning streak, and most recently stopped Israel Adesanya with strikes in February.

Imavov lives up to his “Sniper” nickname — he’ll be one step ahead of Borralho regardless of the Brazilian’s continuous improvements. But what makes Borralho worrisome is that ability to grapple with the best. Imavov hasn’t been one to be held down or controlled often, but even if he defends well against Borralho, he’ll be thinking about the takedown threat. That’s where Borralho can capitalize and land his striking offense. As long as the Brazilian mixes up his approach, this fight remains highly competitive.

Ultimately, it’s the diversity in effective offense for Borralho that leans me toward him in this matchup. Also, the Fighting Nerds, even despite Carlos Prates’ minor road bump, are doing things, man.

Pick: Borralho

155 pounds: Benoit Saint Denis (+145) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-175)

Saint Denis’ striking defense cannot be trusted.

I’m sorry to say it, but it’s true after his past three performances. Even in Saint Denis’ latest short-notice win over Kyle Prepolec in May, some concerning shots landed to the chin of “BSD” in a matchup he was heavily favored to win. Those are shots he can’t afford to take against a talent as dynamic as Ruffy. It’s possible that Saint Denis might be too much of “war” personified. That makes for great action fights, but it’s not going to win any championships or help climb the perennially unforgiving lightweight ladder.

Saint Denis will aim to make this fight a brawl early, disrupting Ruffy’s timing and ability to unleash his versatile attacks. However, he’ll be met with counters along the way, and depending on how well he handles them, he will be in trouble.

Ruffy has that feel of a guy who is only continuing to break out, which we saw with his latest knockout of King Green via brutal spinning wheel kick. Saint Denis is just too hittable, and Ruffy will glide with his superior speed, setting up another highlight-reel finish.

Pick: Ruffy

205 pounds: Modestas Bukauskas (-375) vs. Paul Craig (+300)

As much as there is to say about Paul Craig’s last fight against Rodolfo Bellato in Atlanta, I will refrain. We can leave it at being arguably the most ridiculous end to a fight I’ve ever seen in person.

But hey. It got us one more Craig appearance, so that’s something.

Unfortunately for Craig, it’s not going to go well. (Even though this is absolutely what’s always said before Craig enters the Octagon. Even if he wins, it never goes well until it does. Dominant Craig victories aren’t a thing. He’ll take punishment, both on the feet and the ground, before he catches a submission. In 28 fights, the man has never won a decision and has only gone to three overall.)

Bukauskas has gotten on a nice three-fight roll and gone 5-1 since returning to the UFC in 2023. He’s always been a heavy puncher, and defensively sound enough to avoid any thinly-veiled entries Craig may present him with. This fight has a Bukauskas knockout written all over it.

Pick: Bukauskas

DES MOINES, IOWA - MAY 03: Mason Jones of Wales looks for an opening against Jeremy Stephens during UFC Fight Night at Wells Fargo Arena on May 03, 2025 in Des Moines, Iowa. (Photo by Randy Thomas/Getty Images) — Mason Jones is ready to gain momentum inside the Octagon.

(Randy Thomas via Getty Images)

155 pounds: Bolaji Oki (+115) vs. Mason Jones (-140)

The Mason Jones resurgence tour is in full effect, ladies and gentlemen.

Although the somewhat surprising ending of a short-lived first run with the UFC took Jones back to the European regional scene in 2023, it may have been the best thing for him. Wales’ “Dragon” returned to the Octagon in May to play spoiler on enemy soil for Jeremy Stephens’ promotional return at UFC Des Moines. As chaotically fun as it was, which is typical for Stephens’ tilts, Jones was largely in control more than he wasn’t and utilized a more well-rounded game to come away with the win.

Jones can bang and brawl, and will surely exchange leather early on with Bolaji Oki. However, it’s Jones improved fight IQ that’s been most on display in his recent resurgence — almost as if he lulls opponents into a false comfort with the chaos they’re being presented.

Oki is also still finding his sea legs in the UFC, while Jones has plenty of experience.

Pick: Jones

170 pounds: Axel Sola (-135) vs. Rhys McKee (+110)

It’s been a weird relationship between Rhys McKee and the UFC, and I’m still not too sure they’re a good fit together. Statistically speaking, McKee is 1-4 in the UFC with his lone promotional win coming in his most recent appearance, a bonus-winning stoppage of Daniel Frunza back in April.

To be fair, McKee beat the unholy bollocks off Frunza in that five-minute trouncing. Whether or not Frunza also belongs in the promotion is another story, but we saw what we saw.

Axel Sola is an undefeated 27-year-old prospect with five-round championship experience under his belt. He’ll enter the UFC fresh off his third successful title defense as Ares champion. This all comes after a lengthy 19-4 amateur career, so Sola has put in plenty of work for his age, no matter how you slice it.

This feels like a solid introduction fight for Sola. It’s not quite worthy of the “showcase” label, but Sola has gradually improved with each championship win and is no stranger to these Paris crowds.

Pick: Sola

Preliminary Notes

Former PFL champion Ante Delija has made the move to a UFC heavyweight division that desperately needs him to be good. This isn’t a question, it’s not a request — it’s a demand.

That didn’t work out well for Marcus Buchecha (or Martin Buday, really), so it’s nothing against one of the division’s longest-tenured gatekeepers, Marcin Tybura, but everyone should be rooting for Delija in Paris.

Even then, let’s say Delija goes on a run — he and Tom Aspinall are teammates, so it won’t matter.

Forget I said anything. Cancel the division.

Quick picks: