Fantasy Football Matchups to Exploit: Sleeper starts for Week 1

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/fantasy-football-matchups-to-exploit-sleeper-starts-for-week-1-181038411.html

As the self-proclaimed Sleeper King, I legitimately find joy in talking and writing about players most fantasy football managers have discarded like yesterday’s news. But even for myself, finding matchup-based sleepers is tougher to do in the early going when all you have to go on is the previous year’s data set.

Player movement, health and age play a big part in the wild, rollercoaster ride that is the NFL.

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Look at Philadelphia three years ago with Darius Slay and James Bradberry — it was the most feared secondary in the NFL. The very next year, it went from the penthouse to the outhouse as it had one of the worst secondaries in the league. Then last year it drafted Quinyon Mitchell and, paired with a dominant defensive front, the Eagles were once again a secondary you wanted absolutely no part of.

But fear not, let Post Koh-lone sift through all the data. Let me be your rockstar guide so you can run circles around your competition. I’m gonna be me and wow you as I examine a seemingly motley crew and find you the best sleepers. So, as psycho as it sounds, congratulations, you’ve found the best fantasy football article of the week.

Ok, sorry — I’m done.

QUARTERBACK SLEEPERS

Trevor Lawrence vs. CAR

Carolina gave up the second-most fantasy points to QBs last year and it didn’t make marked improvements to its secondary this year. PFF has the Jaguars graded out as the third-worst secondary in the NFL.
Liam Coen and Travis Hunter add massive upside.

Michael Penix Jr. vs. TB

The Bucs allowed the third-most fantasy points to QBs last year but unlike Carolina, Tampa Bay did add to its secondary via the draft. That being said, we’re still talking about a couple of rookies getting their feet wet in their first NFL action.
With the point total set at 48.5, it’s anticipated to be one of the highest-scoring games of the week — meaning both offenses could yield fantasy goodness.

RUNNING BACK SLEEPERS

Travis Etienne Jr. vs. CAR

The Panthers could not stop the run at all last year, ranking last in total yards, yards per carry and fantasy points per game allowed to opposing running backs.
PFF has their defensive line as one of the five worst and their linebacker corps as the third-worst in the NFL this year. So yeah, still bad.
I know this will be tough to stomach for you Etienne haters but the former Clemson star was one of the best outside zone runners I charted last year.
Tampa, under Coen, had the eighth-highest outside run rate in the NFL last year and his ties to Sean McVay hint at a heavier-than-average zone rush rate this year as well.
I could get into some of the nitty, gritty details, but I don’t want to bleed all that digital ink right this second. Just know that the run game was coached ATROCIOUSLY last year. Just from a schematic standpoint, there is no question in my mind, the Jags will run the ball better this year.

Tyrone Tracy Jr. vs. WAS

The Commanders were terrible versus the run last year, allowing the fourth-most rush yards to opposing backs. The 4.95 yards per carry allowed to the position group ranked as second-worst. Somehow, someway, the defensive line is anticipated to be even worse this year.
But whether it’s on the ground or through the air, Tracy has a chance to post solid numbers. With the Giants a chunky 6.5-point dog, if the G-Men don’t keep it close, expect Tracy to have a potentially big impact in the passing game. A converted wide receiver, he’s a better passing-down back than Cam Skattebo.
Over the last few years, Russell Wilson has turned into a “checkdown or touchdown” thrower — meaning he’s either bombing it or not even bothering with progressions and throwing to the back quickly. The Steelers last year had the third-highest running back target share in the NFL. Look for Wilson to carry that torch forward to the Giants in 2025.

WIDE RECEIVER SLEEPERS

Xavier Legette vs. JAX

The Jags gave up the third-most fantasy points to outside wide receivers last year and while they did add Travis Hunter, the question will be, is he really going to play both ways and if so, how much?
With Adam Thielen traded away and Jalen Coker on IR, target share and air yard share are wide open for both XL and Tet McMillan.
Tet is a strong start this week as well.

Rome Odunze vs. MIN

The Vikings gave up the second-most fantasy points to outside WRs last year and they didn’t make any impact additions to this unit this offseason. PFF has them as the sixth-worst secondary in the league this year.
With all the additions on the offensive line, if the Bears hold up in protection, it could be a huge coming-out party for Odunze in his sophomore campaign.
Apply all of this to DJ Moore, who is a strong start this week as well.

Emeka Egbuka vs. ATL

As mentioned, the 48.5 projected total is tied for the second-highest total of the week and the Bucs have an implied total of 25.0; that’s the fourth-highest projected total in Week 1.
The Falcons gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to outside receivers and the sixth-most to receivers in the slot last year, so no matter where Egbuka lines up, he’s in a good spot.
In regards to Mike Evans, don’t worry too much about A.J. Terrell; the secondary as a whole is weak and last year in the lone game Evans had against the Dirty Birds, he caught five of seven targets for 62 yards and two touchdowns.

Cedric Tillman vs. CIN

While the Bengals were legitimately bad on defense last year and expected to be just as bad this year, they were middle of the road versus wide receivers when we’re talking about fantasy.
That being said, the 11 touchdowns they gave up on deep passes last year (20+ air yards) were tied for the most in the NFL.
That seems to pair well with both Joe Flacco and Tillman. If there’s anything we know about Flacco, he loves to bomb it deep and Tillman is easily the team’s best downfield target.

TIGHT END SLEEPERS

Dalton Schultz vs. LAR

The Rams gave up the third-most fantasy points to tight ends last year, including the second-most receptions and the third-most yards.
PFF ranked L.A.’s linebacking corps as the eighth-worst coming into 2025.
With Christian Kirk sidelined this week and potentially longer, target share in the short and intermediate middle of the field is more open.
Plus, with the team reportedly going to more 12 personnel to help a weak offensive line, Schultz should be on the field a ton as well.
Oh, and remember — Brevin Jordan is on IR, only some character named Cade Stover (and possibly Harrison Bryant from the practice squad) are eligible tight ends for Houston.

WEEK 1 MATCHUPS TO FADE

DK Metcalf vs. NYJ

Even though Sauce Gardner had a down year by his lofty standards, don’t be surprised to see the defensive-minded Aaron Glenn bring the best out of Gardner this year.
Despite all the turmoil, the Jets still were dominant versus outside receivers, allowing the fewest fantasy points to those players.
The point total is a woeful 39.5 as neither the Jets or Steelers look capable offensively. I want no part of DK this week.

Calvin Ridley vs. DEN

We may have to wait a week before we see Ridley build upon his 1,000-yard season from last year. Pat Surtain II will likely mark Ridley and if that’s the case, it could be a long day for the Titans’ No. 1 wideout.
The Titans have the lowest implied total, per the boys in the desert. All your Titans are probably bench fodder this week.

Omarion Hampton vs KC (Friday)

There’s a lot going on in the Chargers’ backfield and none of it is great. The Chiefs were dominant versus the run last year, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position group.
The 3.76 ypc average allowed to opposing backs was good for second-best.
KC then offers no receiving relief out of the backfield, either, as it allowed the fewest receiving yards to running backs last year.
On top of the rough paper matchup, Najee Harris will indeed be back in the mix with a possible 50-50 split looming.