https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-1-packers-vs-lions-falcons-vs-bucs-and-other-matchups-to-exploit
Every week during the regular season I’ll use this space to highlight teams facing various funnel defenses.
What’s a Funnel Defense?
A funnel defense, in case you’re wondering, is a defense that faces an unusually high rate of pass attempts or rushes. I’ll take a close look at how opponents are playing these defenses in neutral game script — when the game is within a touchdown either way — and how good or bad these rush and pass defenses have been of late.
Identifying funnel defenses is hardly an exact science, and whacked-out game script can always foil our best-laid plans. It happens. I’ve found it useful in recent seasons to analyze matchups through this lens to see if there are any useful additions to the always-agonizing start-sit process we put ourselves through every week.
With more data, this analysis will improve. It happens every season. The first few weeks are always tough to pin down. I’ll focus mostly on how defenses were attacked in 2024 and try to adjust for offseason moves and other factors that might change things for that defense in a new year.
Pass Funnel Matchups
Packers vs. Lions
Detroit opponents last season did everything they could to avoid the team’s rush defense and attack an often bruised and battered secondary that collapsed late in the season. The Lions faced the second-highest neutral pass rate in 2024.
Assuming somewhat normal game script — the Packers are 1.5-point home favorites here — Green Bay could abandon their 2024 offensive approach and actually drop back and pass the ball here. No team was more run-heavy last season than the Pack, perhaps due to Jordan Love’s injuries.
A pass-first approach against Detroit would betray what the Packers did in Week 14 last season, when they posted a lowly 53 percent neutral pass rate against the Lions in a 34-31 loss. The idea here is that a healthy Love and a revamped Packers receiver room — complete with flashy rookie Matthew Golden — will tilt the scales in favor of a pass-first approach. It’s not as if the Packers ran wild against the Lions last time they played. Josh Jacobs got away with it, as he does so often, scoring three touchdowns on 18 carries for 66 yards.
Golden, along with Romeo Doubs and Jayden Reed — if he plays — would be the obvious beneficiaries of a pass-heavy approach against a pass funnel defense. I guess you could throw Tucker Kraft in that group too, though I remain skeptical of the Green Bay tight end.
Falcons vs. Bucs
I spent most of the offseason blathering about how run-heavy I think the Falcons will be in Michael Penix’s first season as the team’s starter, so naturally I’m featuring the Falcons in the pass funnel section for Week 1. Nevertheless, I persist.
These teams combined to score a whopping 123 points over two games last season. The Kirk Cousins-led Falcons had a 74 percent neutral pass rate against the Bucs in Week 5, then posted a 50 percent neutral pass rate in Week 8. It’s quite the contrast.
Tampa in 2024 was the league’s most extreme pass funnel defense. Bucs opponents dropped back at a 65 percent clip and averaged 42 pass attempts per game. That sort of drop back volume for Penix in Week 1 would make Drake London a veritable smash play. It could also boost the outlooks of Darnell Mooney — who’s back from a shoulder ailment — and Kyle Pitts, who is still in the NFL.
Mooney, you might recall, had nine grabs for 105 yards and two scores in Week 5 last season against these Bucs. Even Pitts got in on the action, recording seven catches for 88 yards. Pitts then went for 91 yards and a touchdown against Tampa in Week 8. I have no memory of this. I believe my spreadsheets though.
Atlanta’s Week 1 matchup, barring any sort of weird game script, should shape up well for both Mooney and Pitts (and London, of course).
Falcons as home underdog is a strong play
Trysta Krick and Vaughn Dalzell discuss best bets for Buccaneers versus Falcons in Week 1.
Run Funnel Matchups
Jaguars vs. Panthers
I tried to dance around this one because, like you, I don’t really know what the Jaguars’ backfield distribution is going to look like this season. For better or worse, Liam Coen’s team faces one of 2024’s most extreme run funnels: Carolina last season faced a league-low 50 percent pass rate in neutral situations (when the game is within seven points either way).
Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby enter Week 1 listed as co-starters on the Jacksonville depth chart, a very trolly thing to do and a personal attack on anyone who took a Jags back in their fantasy drafts. I’m not sure what to make of the whole thing. Will Bhayshul Tuten factor in as a pass catcher? It’s difficult to project.
If we get any clarity on the Jaguars backfield ahead of Week 1 kickoff, remember the following: The Panthers in 2024 allowed the third highest yards before contact per rush and the tenth highest missed tackles per rush. Some defensive additions this offseason might change the team’s run defense, but they should still be exploitable on the ground.
Steelers at Jets
The Steelers, in case you missed it, this week banished rookie RB Kaleb Johnson to the bottom of the backfield depth chart, behind Jaylen Warren (RB1) and Kenneth Gainwell (RB2). This comes after Johnson reportedly found his way into Aaron Rodgers’ spacious doghouse, which is harder to escape than David Bowie’s labyrinth.
Warren is the guy for now. He wasn’t great last season, maybe due to various injuries, maybe because of his frustrating rotational role with Najee Harris, one of the league’s worst running backs. Warren should immediately benefit from latter-day Rodgers’ check-down tendencies: The old vet was third among all QBs last season in check down passes, with Jets running backs seeing the league’s fourth highest backfield target share.
Jets opponents turned (relatively) hard toward the run in 2024, likely to avoid a solid secondary that borders on elite when healthy. New York last year faced a 54 percent pass rate in neutral situations, the sixth lowest pass rate in the league. Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith don’t need much encouragement to unleash a run-heavy attack. Against a run-funnel Jets defense, Warren should be the main beneficiary — with PPR upside to spare.
https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/fantasy-football-week-1-packers-vs-lions-falcons-vs-bucs-and-other-matchups-to-exploit
