2025 NFL preview, odds: Betting NFL player props? Here are some stats every bettor should know

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/2025-nfl-preview-odds-betting-nfl-player-props-here-are-some-stats-every-bettor-should-know-123153124.html

Professional bettors need to weigh certain analytic stats when betting into lines priced by the market. Most bettors are not originating their own lines for the vast array of NFL props, but rather finding specific advanced analytics they can lean on and feel reflect heavier than the market will indicate.

For beginning bettors, it’s important to familiarize yourselves with some of the stats below, as they can help you make — or sometimes just as importantly, stay away from — certain bets you’re thinking of making.

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I separated this into the three main positions: quarterbacks, wide receivers, and running backs, in order to provide some useful stats to lean on when betting props this season.

Running backs

Yards before contact is the most repeatable stat over time that correlates with success, or a lack thereof, for running back yards and big breakaway plays.

Last season, we saw Derrick Henry move from the Titans to the Ravens, and switch from a team that ranked near the bottom in yards before contact to the best in the NFL. The result was Henry going from 0.85 yards before contact per rush to a whopping 2.48 yards before contact per rush, according to the 33rd Team. He finished the year with 1,921 yards, a career best average of 5.9 per carry and 16 trips to the end zone. If you are betting over/unders on rushing yards or longest rush, definitely consider yards before contact.

It’s also important to understand the formations teams are playing in. How often teams are playing 12 and 22 personnel is a useful running back indicator. Those formations are sets with two tight ends, which essentially adds another blocker along the line of scrimmage. Whether it be the offense consistently playing with two tight ends, or the defense consistently seeing opponents line up in this formation, the run game is going to be heavily leaned on. If you don’t have access to specific formation data, simply add up the snap count of a team’s tight ends. If the starting and backup TE combine for north of 125% of snaps, the team is utilizing these formations regularly.

Finally, as simple as it sounds, compare stark differentials in offensive line rankings versus defensive line rankings. There are many outlets that rank (with weekly updates) the best O-lines and D-lines in the NFL. If an offense has a very weak offensive line and is playing against one of the best defensive lines, I would look to play RB unders. It will be hard for the RB to find big holes and break away, and the team might find itself in losing game scripts and prioritizing short yard throws instead of a high volume of hand offs.

Wide Receivers

There are two major indicators that work in conjunction when targeting (or fading) WR props.

The first thing to know is the percentage of snaps the WR is playing. Ideally we can separate that into percent snaps of passing plays versus running plays, but general percent snaps where the data is widely available is a great starting point.

The second is targets per route run. Combining these two metrics is the best way to indicate potential volume a WR will receive in a given game.

[Week 1 betting trends to know | Helpful tips for new bettors]

Denver Broncos Marvin Mims is a player I am looking to target early in the season for player prop overs, whether that means going over on his prop yards or over on his longest reception prop. Last season, Mims had elite metrics in per route numbers, but simply didn’t see the field enough. Using stats from Dynasty Fantasy Football, last season Mims ranked sixth in targets per route run, and fourth in yards per route run — ahead of players like Justin Jefferson, Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey. However, the downside was Mims only had three games where he played north of 45% of the teams snaps. Coming into this season, the Broncos have made him the clear No. 2 WR and he should see north of 60% snaps every single game. If Mims is on the field, target his overs early before they are priced out.

Finally, always make sure to be aware of injury reports of opposing secondaries. If a defense is missing a nickel corner, expect more usage for the slot WR on the opposing offense. These matchup-based tendencies will be exploited by offenses with preparation time.

Quarterback

Quarterback props are generally some of my favorite unders to play in the prop market. Here is what I look for, even if you go the other way.

First, it’s helpful to use the gambling market as an indicator of how the game may play out, so I look at the game total. We expect games with higher totals to have more passing yards, obviously. Furthermore, what has the movement on the game total been? If a line moves from an over/under of 44.5 down to 43.5, and crosses through the key total number of 44, I am going to at least consider some QB unders.

One example of a game that made this exact move was the Minnesota Vikings at the Chicago Bears in Week 1’s Monday Night Football kickoff. Instead of chasing the total on a worse number, play those angles in the prop market and fade young QBs JJ McCarthy and Caleb Williams having strong statistical outputs in a Week 1 prime-time spot.

Once we dig a little deeper, offensive success rate is a large statistical indicator for me. Offensive success rate is a basic metric that determines if the play — every play — was successful or not. It does not care if the play went 12 yards or 60 yards, but how often are plays successful under the criteria of: 40% of yardage needed gained on first down, 60% yardage needed gained on second down, 100% yardage needed gained on third or fourth down. Offensive success rate is a large indicator of whether or not a team can stay on the field consistently. Teams with higher success rates will run more plays and more likely be in advantageous positions within those plays to open the full playbook and attack the defense.

Lastly, similar to all other props, what is the injury report dictating? If an opposing team is missing its nose tackle, I expect more inside runs. If a team is missing a defensive end, the quarterback pocket should remain stable for a tick longer. If the defense is missing a key safety in the secondary, more long balls will be thrown. These are all indicators for what to look for in the prop market.

For example, if the Vikings are without safety Harrison Smith for a game, look to bet into the quarterback over for longest completion. Attacking these markets in a timely fashion after the news drops and early in the week once the information is known will likely result in a good ticket with closing line value, indicating you placed a good bet.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/betting/article/2025-nfl-preview-odds-betting-nfl-player-props-here-are-some-stats-every-bettor-should-know-123153124.html