Senators general manager Steve Staios appeared on the Coming In Hot Podcast on Tuesday, where no questions were posed regarding Alex Formenton out of respect for the organization’s policy, which defers to the NHL and its own investigation into the London sexual assault case.
The NHL released a statement in the trial’s aftermath:
“The allegations made in this case, even if not determined to have been criminal, were very disturbing, and the behaviour at issue was unacceptable. We will be reviewing and considering the judge’s findings. While we conduct that analysis and determine next steps, the players charged in this case are ineligible to play in the league.”
What makes Formenton’s situation unique is that of the five players who stood trial, he was the only individual whose rights still belonged to an NHL organization. At the onset of the 2022 offseason, before the events of the London case became public, the Senators, under the previous regime and ownership, issued Formenton a qualifying offer as a restricted free agent. An act that is a formality because teams rarely prefer forfeiting their rights and losing a potential asset for nothing.
In the aftermath of the London filing charges against the players and the subsequent trial, contracts have expired, allowing other NHL organizations to cut ties with the players involved. Since Formenton was qualified but never ultimately signed an agreement, the Senators have retained his rights.
His acquittal has fuelled speculation regarding his future, with many decisive and understandably divergent opinions on what should happen.
On one end of the spectrum, those advocating for Formenton’s return believe his acquittal signals that he was not held criminally responsible and, as such, he should have the opportunity to resume his professional hockey career.
Conversely, his detractors believe that this verdict does not mean that wrongdoing did not occur. It only means that the Crown failed to meet the burden of proof necessary to get a conviction. And as such, it would be better for the organization to avoid controversy and divest itself of a player who has not played a game for the organization in three years.
Related: Former Senator Alex Formenton Found Not Guilty
2018 World Junior Trial Ends: Former Ottawa Senator Alex Formenton Found Not Guilty Of Sexual Assault
Former Ottawa Senators winger Alex Formenton has been found not guilty of sexual assault.
Assuming that Formenton will elect to resume his hockey career, the Senators will eventually have three options available:
1) Without the player having a contract, they could forfeit their rights to Formenton, similar to how the Arizona Coyotes forfeited their rights to Mitchell Miller after selecting the player in the fourth round of the 2020 NHL Draft.
2) The Senators could trade Formenton’s rights to another organization that is willing to stomach whatever backlash his return would spur.
3) They could re-sign the player, believing that he could still provide positive value on the ice and help the team win games.
The latter point is readily apparent in various community message boards and forums dedicated to the team. Alex Formenton is 25 years old, and he is at an age that aligns with the rest of the Senators’ young core. In theory, he would still be in the middle of that age 22 to 27 span when a player enjoys the prime statistical years of his career. The fleet skater was once projected as a third liner, and his incredible speed would add a dynamic at five-on-five and on the penalty kill that the forward corps presently lacks.
It is that blazing speed that his proponents fondly recall.
According to the NHL Edge data from the 2021-22 season, Formenton ranked in the 99th percentile in skating speed (24.21 mph) and speed bursts over 20 mph (298).
When someone is unmistakably that fast, it is easily identifiable to even the most casual of fans. There is no subtlety to Formenton’s speed, so it is easy for people to point to an obvious skill and say things like, “I like that! We could use more of that in the lineup. It would certainly help.”
The issue with Formenton is that, despite that one dynamic skill, his underlying results have been relatively mediocre.
All of Formenton’s offensive value is tied to his ability to generate off the rush. Of the 190 forwards who logged more than 900 minutes during the 2021-21 season, only 38 players generated a higher rate of rush chances than Formenton per Natural Stat Trick. That volume of rush chances led to Formenton finishing with the second-highest individual expected goals per 60 rate on the Senators behind noted volume shooter Brady Tkachuk.
Creating rush scoring chances is exciting. Those snapshots and moments are noticeable and easy to recall, but it has been three years since Formenton last played an NHL game. That extended absence allows the flaws in his game to be forgotten.
When he played for the Senators, Formenton’s shifts were characterized by one-and-done chances. He is a slasher whose lines often struggled to sustain zone time or create chances off the cycle. Without many of those extended shifts in the offensive zone, his lines would frequently spend a disproportionate amount of time in their own end defending.
In his first two seasons in the League, the Senators’ metrics when Formenton was on the ice were not particularly strong.
- 2020-21: 20 GP, 42.47 CF%, 38.98 SF%, 61.54 GF%, and 43.90 xGF%
- 2021-22: 79 GP, 47.04 CF%, 48.34 SF%, 39.29 GF%, and 46.68 xGF%
The Senators gave up a greater percentage of shots (CF%), shots on goal (SF%), total goals (GF%), and expected goals (xGF%) according to Natural Stat Trick. Evolving-Hockey’s proprietary metrics like ‘total defence’ (DEF) and ‘wins above replacement’ (WAR) were also not particularly flattering to Formenton.
DEF evaluates a player’s total defensive contributions at five-on-five and while shorthanded, and combines them into a single, encompassing metric. WAR is an estimate of a player’s total value to a team’s success by comparing their contributions relative to a replacement level or league average player. By both statistics, Formenton does not come off looking particularly strong.
He held slightly more value than a replacement-level player (0.3 WAR) during his 20-game rookie campaign in 2020-21 before performing at a sub-replacement level the following season (-0.9 WAR) in 2021-22. In these same two seasons, Formenton failed to contribute any positive DEF value (-0.1 DEF in 2020-21, -3.8 DEF in 2021-22).
HockeyViz‘s data corroborates Formenton’s struggles on defence. His isolated defensive impacts in his sophomore campaign were poor.
Granted, his isolated metrics during the 2020-21 season look better, but that was a smaller sample of games. The Senators were also an organization mired in mediocrity. In the 2020-21 season, they finished sixth out of seven teams in the COVID-shortened campaign. The following year, they finished seventh out of the eight teams in the Atlantic Division.
Under head coach D.J. Smith’s watch, the Senators were routinely one of the worst defensively structured teams in the NHL, which undoubtedly would have negatively impacted any young player experiencing their first full season in the NHL. Formenton’s most common linemates in 2021-22 were Tim Stützle, who was in his sophomore season, and Connor Brown.
Although Stützle’s defensive game has grown markedly and he has become a reliable 200′ player for the Senators under Travis Green, his defensive aptitude as a 20-year-old was not where it is now. As much as we can say that Formenton’s defensive metrics likely suffered from usage and role, it would be reasonably fair to state that Stützle helped Formenton’s offensive numbers.
The winger finished the 2021-22 season with 18 goals and 32 points, with Stützle being directly involved in nine of those points. Formenton’s offence was also buoyed by five shorthanded and two empty net goals, which is difficult to replicate and is not reliable when projecting future production.
An optimist may look at Formenton’s numbers and opportunistic production and believe that if the player could refine his game, he could be capable of more, especially with an improved cast of teammates. It is not wrong. If Formenton could confidently hold onto the puck in the offensive zone and create sustained pressure and offence, he could be a significantly more valuable player.
The rub is that the left winger has not played professionally in North America since the 2021-22 season. There is probably no question that it would not take long for his skating to return to form, but there is no replacing the time lost away from the game.
Improving instincts at the NHL level is difficult enough as is. Managing it when you have been away from the highest level of competition for three years would drastically compound that challenge.
An argument can be made that the organization could elect to sign Formenton to a two-way contract, affording him an opportunity to see if he can earn a spot on the parent roster. Thanks to the presence of Brady Tkachuk, Fabian Zetterlund, Ridly Greig and David Perron, left wing is a position of strength for the Senators. Conversely, the organization also has what is widely considered one of the NHL’s weakest prospect pools, so the organization could patiently wait to see if Formenton’s career has a pulse.
The likelihood of that happening is predicated on the assumption that the organization would even consider bringing Formenton back into the fold.
The mantra of being ‘best in class’ has been championed since Michael Andlauer purchased the team in 2023. It is a top-down management style that prides itself on efficiency, character and diligence. Inviting the distraction and negative publicity that would inevitably arise from a new contract would not be part of Andlauer’s playbook. I would be skeptical of it occurring if it had involved one of the top players on the team, let alone someone who may only have a chance to play a depth role on one of the Senators’ bottom two lines.
Conveniently, the Senators announced earlier this week that the newly acquired Jordan Spence would be wearing the number 10, the number previously belonging to Formenton, which may ultimately shed some light on which way the organization is leaning.
By Graeme Nichols
This article was first published at The Hockey News-Ottawa
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