2025 Candidates to be fantasy football's WR1 overall

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/2025-candidates-to-be-fantasy-footballs-wr1-overall-185436394.html

Over the past several seasons, I’ve discussed the “three pillars” a player must have in his outlook to become the fantasy WR1 overall. All of this made it easy to see that CeeDee Lamb was a near-perfect candidate for the honor in 2023, even if he wasn’t universally viewed as that type of player prior to that season.

Those three pillars are:

Must own a dominant target share in his offense.
Must be tethered to an efficient quarterback/offense.
Must be verifiably great at football.

Time to spin forward to 2025.

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Using those pillars, let’s take a look at my top 11 ranked receivers — the only guys I have in my first two tiers at the position — to examine how clean their paths are to push for the WR1 overall title in 2025.

Ja’Marr Chase, Bengals

Target share: Yes

While Ja’Marr Chase has to share the field with Tee Higgins, he’s still a top-level target-earner. He turned in a career-best 27.9% target share overall and that number was actually higher (28.5%) in the games Higgins was active. That’s because Higgins’ presence allows the Bengals to move Chase around the formation, which he did at a higher rate than ever last year as he earned the trust of the staff to play multiple spots. That dynamic usage is what we needed to get a receiver like Chase into WR1 overall territory.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Not only is Joe Burrow a great quarterback and the Bengals a good offensive environment, but the state of their defense looks like it could be as bad or worse than last season. We’ll see them in many pass-first scripts.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Chase is a Tier 1 receiver who can do everything you want out of a WR1. Being used more in motion and playing in the slot at a career-high rate (32%) helped him take the next step as a player last season.

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys

Target share: Yes

CeeDee Lamb has been targeted on 29% of his routes run over the last two years — fourth-most among wideouts in this span — and has a 27.1% share of the Cowboys’ targets. Few receivers command volume at the level Lamb does, thanks to his separation skills and role. When he’s on the field, he’s the engine of this passing attack.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Even with a slow start to last season before getting injured, Dak Prescott still ranks 12th in adjusted yards per attempt over the last two years — sandwiched between Josh Allen and Joe Burrow — and 10th in success rate among quarterbacks with 500-plus dropbacks. As long as he’s healthy, we know Prescott is good enough to get Lamb to WR1 overall status.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Lamb is a fantastic wideout. He’s a complete player who is maximized as a dynamic slot receiver. He leads the NFL in yards from the slot over the last three seasons (2,244) and the presence of George Pickens should help keep him on the interior.

Justin Jefferson, Vikings

Target share: Yes

Justin Jefferson posted a 29.8% target share in 2024, despite the breakout from Jordan Addison. The Vikings’ No. 2 receiver is set to be suspended for the first three weeks; those numbers could be especially pumped up during the first part of the year.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

We have to acknowledge that the Vikings enter this season with an unknown at the quarterback position. We haven’t seen anything from J.J. McCarthy in the league outside of a small handful of preseason passes. However, the Vikings rank sixth in passing yards per attempt since Kevin O’Connell took over the team in 2022. The following quarterbacks have thrown 100-plus passes for the Vikings in that span: Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold, Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs. As long as McCarthy is a functional quarterback, there should be production on the table.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Jefferson has been an elite-level wide receiver pretty much since the day he suited up for Minnesota. He is the best or, at worst, second-best wideout in the sport.

Nico Collins, Texans

Target share: Yes

Nico Collins had a 27% target share and 36% air yard share of the Texans offense in games he started and finished last season, including playoffs. He’s the clear lead dog of this wide receiver corps when he’s healthy and available to play.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

I want to say yes because I believe C.J. Stroud will bounce back after a slight sophomore slump, and he still ranks eighth in adjusted yards per attempt over the last two seasons combined. However, we have to hit this as a “maybe” because of the uncertainty around the offensive line, which was a problem in 2024 and looks worse on paper in 2025. Now, I’m of the belief that Stroud having more control at the line and better protection rules from the coaching staff can help clear that up but this remains a big unknown entering the season.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Nico Collins leads the NFL with a 3.0 yards per route run over the last two seasons. He’s posted a 96th percentile success rate vs. press coverage in Reception Perception in back-to-back seasons. He’s an elite wide receiver and is a dark-horse bet to earn the NFL’s Triple Crown at wide receiver.

Drake London, Falcons

Target share: Yes

Drake London had a 29.3% target share last season, third-most in the NFL, and had an outrageous 38.9% share in Michael Penix Jr.’s three starts. While that’s unlikely to carry over, 2024 was the second time in his career that London pushed 29% overall. He’s a proven target-hog player who got a boost in his layup looks thanks to a reimagined role in the new Falcons offense.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

Penix’s 2024 showing was a mixed bag in a small sample, as he showed incredible ability to access London on downfield out-breaking routes but displayed the accuracy concerns that haunted him as a prospect. The Falcons are incredibly bullish on Penix being “one of those guys” at quarterback. Right now, it’s still too early to tell. It’s worth noting that this Falcons offense was 12th in EPA per play and success rate late season, while ranking seventh in explosive play rate, even with inconsistent quarterback play. It should be a good ecosystem overall.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

London is an immensely talented wideout capable of handling the burden of WR1 duties in a good offense. He ranks 10th among wide receivers with 400-plus routes in first downs per route run since he entered the league in 2022. Entering his fourth season, London is just scratching the surface heading into his prime years.

Malik Nabers, Giants

Target share: Yes

“Yes” probably doesn’t even begin to do it justice. There have been just five wide receivers to hit or eclipse 30% of their team’s targets in a season since 2021: Cooper Kupp (2021), Davante Adams (2022, 2023), Tyreek Hill (2022, 2023), A.J. Brown (2023) and Malik Nabers (2024). Pretty elite company for the 2024 rookie wideout. Both Nabers’ full-field skill set and athletic dynamism, along with the dropoff from him to the rest of the talent on the roster, combine for unreal target upside.

Efficient offense/QB: Leaning no

There are parts of Russell Wilson’s game that overlap well with Nabers; the veteran quarterback was No. 1 in yards per game on go and post routes last season, per Fantasy Points Data. No quarterback in New York last year could consistently unlock the proven vertical threat on those patterns. However, Wilson also can’t/won’t access the intermediate middle of the field anymore and is a streaky, limited player.

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Despite his preseason dominance, we should be skeptical that Jaxson Dart is ready to be a talent elevator when he gets this job sooner than later. Nabers was still WR8 in half-PPR points per game last season, so he can thrive without good quarterback play, but we’d be naive to think a likely middling committee doesn’t limit his legitimate WR1 overall upside.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

As mentioned above, Nabers was excellent last season despite not playing with a single average QB starter as a rookie. He’s a relentless separator with a strong understanding of the fundamentals of playing wide receiver, who just also happens to be a dangerous YAC threat. The sky is the limit for him as an individual talent.

Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions

Target share: Yes

Since 2022, Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks seventh among wide receivers in team target share (27.2%) and sixth in targets per route run (28.1%). He’s uniquely skilled to be a high target-earner thanks to his dominant skill-set as a layup receiver who quickly separates underneath and intermediate. His game overlaps so well with Jared Goff, I view him as completely insulated from any surrounding upheaval in the Lions offense.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

We should have some regression-based questions about the Lions offense, both from a statistical perspective and as they grapple with brain-drain on the offensive coaching staff and turnover on the interior offensive line. However, this should still be a unit with a strong floor. Since 2022, Detroit ranks fifth in explosive play rate and fourth in success rate on offense. Even a regression down to the 10th or 11th should be enough to keep St. Brown in the fringes of the WR1 overall mix.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

It feels like St. Brown doesn’t get enough credit for improving on an incremental basis every season, especially in his work against man coverage as an outside receiver. He took a career-low 44.1% of his snaps in the slot last year.

St. Brown trails only Puka Nacua in successful plays per route run in 2022, among wideouts with 400-plus routes. He’s a top-10 NFL receiver right now, without a doubt.

Brian Thomas Jr., Jaguars

Target share: Maybe

Brian Thomas Jr. had a 25.5% share of the Jaguars’ targets last season and really came on down the stretch of his rookie season. His overall target share ranked eighth among wide receivers. However, Travis Hunter being introduced to the mix in a new offense is definitely a big factor. It would be foolish to ignore the second-overall pick who is going to be schemed into layup opportunities. We could see Thomas dip down to a 22%-23% target share, where you’d then be relying on explosive plays — which, thankfully, he’s excellent at providing.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

Trevor Lawrence ranks 23rd in adjusted yards per attempt since 2022, sandwiched between Ryan Tannehill and Andy Dalton. I’m optimistic about what Liam Coen can bring to this offense and believe the easy buttons his system provides can give the answers Lawrence needs post-snap to make his life easier. However, given the history, I’m being generous to give it maybe.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Here’s where we have a definitive yes when it comes to Thomas. The second-year wideout demolished man and press coverage as a vertical receiver who can line up at X. However, he’s not limited to just being that type of perimeter downfield weapon, as he showed a unique skill set in Year 1. Thomas averaged 10 yards per target on screens last season and 3.0 yards per route run from the slot. That combination is just downright rare at this position.

Puka Nacua, Rams

Target share: Yes

Puka Nacua was targeted on 38.9% of his routes from Week 8 on last year, once he got back from injury. That was a commanding lead over the second-most targeted player on a per-route basis (CeeDee Lamb, 32%). Nacua was already taking over that alpha workload from Cooper Kupp, who is now out of the mix. While Davante Adams is in town to provide an upgrade on Kupp, Nacua’s skill set on short and layup routes should make him the clear favorite to pace this team in looks.

Efficient offense/QB: Maybe

It’s as simple as this: If Matthew Stafford is out there playing, the answer is yes. Even if Stafford’s high moments without question overshadow the lower notes in his game at this point, he’s still more than good enough to lead a top-10 offense. However, serious questions about his season-long availability given this offseason’s back-injury saga hang over this entire operation.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Nacua graduated into the top tier of NFL receivers in his third season. He’s improved as an overall separator, can win from multiple alignments and all three levels. Nacua is also a rugged and physical player after the catch and along the sideline while reeling in tough catches. He leads the NFL in first downs per route run and is second in yards per route behind only Collins since he entered the league.

A.J. Brown, Eagles

Target share: Yes

The Eagles have a ton of dangerous offensive players and high-end talent. However, when everyone is healthy, it’s still A.J. Brown who is the clear leading man in this receiver room. Over the last two seasons, Brown leads the team with a 27% share of the team targets and 39% share of the air yards. He ranks seventh and sixth in those metrics among wideouts. Not only does Brown dominate the target share, he gets those valuable downfield looks. If the Eagles ever fully open up their passing game due to run game and/or defensive regression, his target ceiling is through the roof.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Jalen Hurts certainly has his flaws as a quarterback but he still ranks sixth in adjusted yards per attempt and 10th in success rate over the last three seasons. The Eagles have struggled to find consistency in their passing game amid multiple coordinator switches, yet this is an offense that still finds a way to be productive. There’s little reason to worry about the floor caving in on this environment.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Brown remains a top-five wide receiver in the NFL, bare minimum. Even as his overall volume went down last year due to environmental factors, Brown still led the NFL with 3.04 yards per route run. He also set a new career-high with a 79.1% success rare vs. man coverage in Reception Perception, a 97th percentile score. We’re still talking about an elite wideout.

Ladd McConkey, Chargers

Target share: Maybe, leaning no

I love Ladd McConkey and am willing to keep him in my second tier of receivers even with some of these questions, but I do have to raise an eye at the target ceiling for the dynamic second-year receiver. From Week 6, following his post-bye rookie bump, McConkey had a 21.9% share of the Chargers’ targets. That ranked 19th among wideouts in this span. He had 88 total targets. While a leap in his second season should push him north of that mark (and I don’t want to discount his playoff eruption) the arrival of Keenan Allen does put a cap on the ceiling. While Allen is a declining player, he is still useful and is better competition than some of the younger players on the roster.

Efficient offense/QB: Yes

Justin Herbert is the constant center of weird media debates but he’s a great quarterback who easily ranks inside the top-10 real-life rankings. A new system really benefited Herbert and allowed him to play more freely and aggressively. He ranked fourth in adjusted yards per attempt last year behind MVP contenders Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, as well as Jared Goff.

Verifiably great at football: Yes

Again, the biggest reason I wanted to hang onto McConkey as a Tier 2 option — despite Keenan Allen’s addition, the presence of some interesting rookies and the low overall passing volume — is because of how good he is as a player.

McConkey was the best rookie wide receiver on film last season and it was a crowded group at the top of the class. He wins at all three levels and can play outside. His only long-term individual question is his ability to stay healthy while carrying a large target burden. His excellent level of play and efficiency — he ranked seventh among all receivers with 250-plus routes in yards per route run vs. man coverage — should make him a top-12 producer at the position, even if the upside path of WR1 overall is murkier unless he smashes his projections.

https://sports.yahoo.com/fantasy/article/2025-candidates-to-be-fantasy-footballs-wr1-overall-185436394.html