UFC Vegas 104 continues the seemingly new tradition of middleweight main events taking center stage in the UFC APEX. For the second time since 2023, Marvin Vettori and Roman Dolidze will go toe-to-toe.
Copy and paste almost everything from our UFC Vegas 103 preview introduction two weeks ago. These APEX events have become so devoid of excitement on paper that it’s simply numbing at this point. When they do deliver, it’s a surprise treat. How many people were asking for Vettori vs. Dolidze 2? It doesn’t matter because we’re getting it anyway — and with two additional rounds, baby.
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Still, UFC Vegas 104 has some decent violence potential, considering the lopsided matchmaking that appears to be at play. Will we see a night of upsets? I wouldn’t bet on it, but let’s make our picks regardless.
Betting odds courtesy of BetMGM.
185 pounds: Marvin Vettori (-150) vs. Roman Dolidze (+125)
If you don’t remember the first fight between Vettori and Dolidze, you’re in luck (I guess?), because UFC uploaded it to its YouTube channel this week. After rewatching the bout, it’s all the more baffling that we’re here in 2025 with a five-round rematch.
Italy’s Vettori has fought once since his unanimous decision nod over Dolidze; in June 2023, he set a middleweight record for the most significant strikes absorbed in a fight (249!) during his decision loss to Jared Cannonier. Since then, Vettori has been sidelined due to a plethora of shoulder injuries.
“I smashed my shoulder. It popped out and destroyed my rotator cuff, my labrum, and even my bicep,” Vettori said at UFC Vegas 104 media day. “It was a heavy surgery. A lot of tendons were torn and messed up. Tendons take a while to heal.”
Dolidze, on the other hand, lost his follow-up tilt against Nassourdine Imavov before rattling off his current two-fight win streak over Anthony Smith at light heavyweight and Kevin Holland.
Unless Vettori returns as a changed man, there’s no reason to expect a fight that looks any different from 2023’s first Vettori vs. Dolidze encounter. That performance, while unmemorable, was enough to earn Vettori a win — Dolidze unsuccessfully walked Vettori down for essentially the entire 15 minutes and looked exclusively for big hooks to take out the notoriously durable “Italian Dream.”
That was a stunningly poor approach from Dolidze, because it’s become apparent throughout Vettori’s 27-fight career that he might have the hardest head in middleweight history, having never been knocked out despite taking on oodles of punishment. Dolidze is also the superior grappler, particularly with submissions, and yet he only attempted a single takedown despite backing Vettori up the whole fight.
In Dolidze’s only other five-round affair against Imavov, he faded down the stretch and was picked apart, which doesn’t bode well considering Vettori already bested Dolidze over three rounds. Dolidze’s early success against Vettori in Round 1 in 2023 may have deterred him from trying to wrestle, so presumably he’ll change that aspect of his game plan, but Vettori still has a solid 69% takedown defense in the UFC.
How this rematch plays out depends mainly on speculation surrounding Vettori’s recovery and layoff, but based on what we know and have seen, I have to take him in this one.
Pick: Vettori
170 pounds: Chidi Njokuani (+155) vs. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (-190)
I’ve always had a soft spot for Chidi Njokuani and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. Hence, this co-main event is like seeing my two favorite distant (very distant) cousins duke it out to maintain relevancy.
Before his latest fight against Zach Scroggin, Zaleski dos Santos was starting to get counted out by the oddsmakers, likely because he’s nearing 40 years old. But “Capoeira” is still as dynamic of a striker as welterweight has to offer. His speed may not be what it once was, but he can still whip a wheel kick with the best of them and still packs a wallop in his punches. For a guy so willing to engage in striking wars, you’d think the Brazilian might have more knockout losses than he does, but somehow there’s still only one on his résumé as he enters this 35th career contest.
Njokuani, 36, is a huge welterweight, and he’s undefeated in his two fights since returning to the weight class one year ago. His wins over Rhys McKee and Jared Gooden were fine. He got the job done, leaning on his long, large frame to neutralize his opponents. Unfortunately for him, neither of those guys possesses the arsenal and technical prowess of dos Santos.
This fight deserves a sleeper label because it might be awkwardly absurd in the best way possible. It’s a shame it won’t be in front of a packed arena crowd. As for the pick, I get the feeling more tread is left on dos Santos’ tires than people realize.
Pick: dos Santos
155 pounds: Alexander Hernandez (-210) vs. Kurt Holobaugh (+170)
Of the main card fights at UFC Vegas 104, this is the fight you shouldn’t touch with a 10-foot pole. I’ll say it outright: I’m taking Alexander Hernandez, but couldn’t be any less confident in the choice.
Once a bright prospect on the rise, Hernandez has been unfathomably inconsistent since Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone put him in his place in 2019. Wins don’t age much better at lightweight than his first two UFC successes: A knockout of Beneil Dariush and a unanimous decision over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. The Hernandez from those performances is long gone, though, and he’s failed to cobble together a win streak in his 12 fights since.
Hernandez, 32, played around with a brief featherweight stint before returning to lightweight for his most recent bout — a split decision win against Austin Hubbard. If you believe in MMA math, that means Kurt Holobaugh should win Saturday, since he submitted Hubbard via a second-round triangle choke when they fought in “The Ultimate Fighter 31” finals in August 2023.
If one thing has remained consistent throughout Hernandez’s run, it’s been his willingness to lean on his wrestling. That’s where he’ll carry the advantage in this fight, assuming his gas tank holds, which I expect it to. Holobaugh is often a finisher, but his willingness to go for the kill is also sometimes his demise. Again, how confident am I that Hernandez doesn’t get caught? I’m not. The level of competition simply favors him.
Pick: Hernandez
135 pounds: Da’Mon Blackshear (-450) vs. Cody Gibson (+350)
Da’Mon Blackshear will forever be known as the “Cody Killer” once he beats Cody Gibson at UFC Vegas 104. He defeated Cody Stamann this past November, and when this fight was initially booked, I initially thought it was an instant rematch. Thankfully, it’s not.
Blackshear is a menace on the ground, whipping out submissions left and right, including the ever-elusive but always impressive twister he used against Jose Johnson in August 2023. Blackshear struggles when tasked with opponents who can match his size and bully him on the feet or ground. Gibson can do the latter, and he will try, but that’s where he’ll get caught.
In this one, anything less than a finish for Blackshear would be a stock loss.
Pick: Blackshear
205 pounds: Diyar Nurgozhay (-375) vs. Brendson Ribeiro (+300)
Diyar Nurgozhay is the fresh blood the doctor ordered at light heavyweight. The undefeated 10-0 prospect still has much to prove, but he’s off to a great start.
Against Brendson Ribeiro, Nurgozhay is primed to score a highlight-reel finish akin to Tallison Teixeira’s recent UFC debut against Justin Tafa at UFC 312. The dude is a smashing machine who’s shown off a devastating head kick in multiple victories now, along with sneaky submission skills.
Ribeiro scraped by in his latest appearance, a split decision over Caio Machado, and will hope to keep his roster spot with this one. But the odds are rightfully stacked against him.
Pick: Nugozhay
145 pounds: Choi Seung-woo (+425) vs. Kevin Vallejos (-600)
Choi Seung-woo has had a wild run in the UFC since he arrived in April 2019.
I mean this as a compliment, but he’s been an excellent loser for the company. The guy loses well, and that’s important. Choi brings war with him each and every time, often resulting in an incredible triumph or a brutal demise. Against Kevin Vallejos, he’s being set up to fall into the latter category.
The 14-1 Vallejos’ lone loss came against Jean Silva in his first “Contender Series” bout — a fight that went the distance. That’s all you need to know about where the guy falls in terms of overall capabilities. But aside from that, he’s finished all but one of his opponents. Whether on the feet or the ground, Vallejos wrecks folks. Choi is in for a rough one Saturday night.
Pick: Vallejos
Preliminary notes
This Ryan Spann experiment remains an intrigue. Flashes of brilliance don’t correctly describe the now-former light heavyweight contender, and I understand why he’s the underdog up at heavyweight, but from a pure talent-perspective he has zero business losing to Waldo Cortes-Acosta. It’s just a matter of whether or not he puts it all together upstairs.
I’d have to revisit all of the previews we’ve done here at Uncrowned since launch, but UFC Vegas 104 seems like the event with the most wide-odds fights.
Quick picks:
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Ryan Spann (+145) def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (-180)
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You Su-young (-625) def. AJ Cunningham (+450)
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Josias Musasa (-800) def. Carlos Vera (+550)
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Stephanie Luciano (-225) def. Sam Hughes (+185)
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Andre Lima (-400) def. Daniel Barez (+310)
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Josiane Nunes (-180) def. Priscila Cachoeira (+145)
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Carli Judice (-350) def. Yuneisy Duben (+275)
